De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025) • Hacker News Board

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#381

Post by weberer » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:10 PM UTC

FrustratedMonky wrote: post #317

llmslave wrote: post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

no they literally just kept printing money for no reason

Its the 'kept printing' that is the problem with the story. There was a surge and a pull back. Post-COVID Tightening: After this historic surge, the Federal Reserve began "quantitative tightening" in 2022 to combat inflation, slowing M2 growth to near zero and eventually reversing it.

>slowing M2 growth to near zero and eventually reversing it.

The M2 money supply went from 15.4b at the start of 2020 to a peak of 21.7b, before slightly reversing to 20.7b. Then they just continued printing. Now it currently stands at a record high of 22.2b. The dollar is more diluted than ever.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#382

Post by christkv » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:10 PM UTC

Have people completely missed the stable coin move that will ensure there is a massive continuing market for USD. The prognosis is 2 trillion USD around 2028. Thats a lot of bonds that will need to be purchased to back the coin.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#383

Post by mullingitover » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:11 PM UTC

I remember studying pre-WWI history, and particularly how carefully Bismarck arranged German foreign policy like he was the diplomatic equivalent of Bobby Fischer. Everything was situated perfectly and Germany was totally content.

Then along came the absolute moron Wilhelm, and he managed to Leroy Jenkins Germany's beautifully arranged relationships into an aggressive, tactless nightmare where all Germany's allies were turned into enemies, and everything turned out exactly like you'd expect.

As the saying goes, history doesn't repeat but it often rhymes.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#384

Post by dandellion » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:11 PM UTC

echelon wrote: post #195

renewiltord wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. People are actively trying to repair something which cannot be fixed. Now that the US century is over, the only way forward is for the US to use present military power as a cudgel. Given that the multipolar world is nigh, the only path forward is through. If America and her erstwhile allies are no longer aligned, then any attempt by America to repair this is doomed. Consequently, Trump’s approach is the only…

> Consequently, Trump’s approach is the only way forward. It's the DoD. Prior to Trump's actions, the American-led "world order" seemed to work, even if we couldn't get China to agree to a "Bretton Woods 2.0". Biden tried diplomacy with the EU. He tried to get them to agree to a renewed US-led world order, but it wasn't working. The EU decided to play the US and China against each other to improve its own standing, w…

Except all of that will be for naught because the US is making the fatal mistake of doubling down on oil and coal. It's pointless to play 50 years ahead if you won't make it even the next 20.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#385

Post by RealityVoid » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:11 PM UTC

echelon wrote: post #371

RealityVoid wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, the idea of Trump making geopolitically informed decisions is so out of the realm of my perception of reality I don't even know how to engage with you. Trump is a narcissistic idiot that you voted into power. Your geopolitical direction is dictated by his narcissistic whims. "National security reasons Greenland" or "EU collaboration with China" or whatever is exactly what I initially said - sane washing a l…

I have a great interest in geopolitics. I didn't vote for Trump, and I already told you this is coming from within the DoD. These are military decisions. These are 50-year plans. Here I was 10 months ago and two years ago saying the same thing: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43505524 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36896699

I am not saying you're stupid or misinformed, I'm saying you're missing the point. Understanding what Trump wants doesn't require you to understand geopolitics, it requires you know clinical psychiatry.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#386

Post by Espressosaurus » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:11 PM UTC

tigerlily wrote: post #332

omgJustTest wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Currencies fundamentally relate to some trust. I believe that the near-term de-dollarization isn't as much trust erosion as it is a tool to provide monetary penalty for behaving in unpredictable ways. However it will provide incentive to move away from the dollar in the long-term, ie as Fareed Zakaria says "recent actions are accelerating the world to the multipolar future".

Multipolar? So kind of like Europe before the beginning of World War 1, with major powers all competing with each other?

Yes, though I expect there to be a European block, the US, and a Chinese block. Russia there as a wildcard. I doubt we see Germany in competition with Britain.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#387

Post by ijidak » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:11 PM UTC

touwer wrote: post #51

The US century is already over. It's just that a lot of US citizens don't see that. De-dollarization will happen when one is a traitor to it's allies

Something to think about....

Mankind has never seen the collapse of a nuclear powered empire.

Sadly, it may not be possible for a nuclear powered empire to fall without the death of billions...

Mankind is in uncharted territory.

Even Russia never fully fell after the USSR collapsed. Whoever kept the nuclear weapons continued to be a first tier power.

Nothing in human history compares to the present question of how the current empires fall, and if they can even do so safely.

Very sobering times ahead.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#388

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:12 PM UTC

thatguy0900 wrote: post #243

chrisco255 wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody is cheering for inflation to get worse, they are celebrating it being held down to 2.7% after higher inflation a few years ago. The U.S. is a net exporter of oil and food and self-sufficent for majority of its mineral needs as well. There is no need for U.S. to crash its currency to incentivize domestic production, it can just impose tariffs on imports to do so.

The problem with tariffs is really just trumps complete instability. Why would anyone invest in domestic manufactoring when Trump wildly flip flops on all tariff policy using it as a diplomatic punishment and reward system? Especially when his tariffs in general are legally questionable at best and the other half of us politics are against them just in principal. Imagine investing millions in a domestic factory and t…

[deleted]

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#389

Post by KaiserPro » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:12 PM UTC

nubg wrote: post #337

Aunche wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We were in a lockdown, and Congress voted for multiple trillion dollar stimulus' financed by debt. Refusing to "print money" in those circumstances is just asking for a worse Great Depression.

Our of curiosity as I know nothing about economics, how would not printing miney lead to a Great Depression?

one of the big problems of the great depression was banks went bankrupt left right and centre, and took everyone's life savings with them. Also as a lot of banks generally hold mortgages in their portfolio, so when a bank collapses it means that mortgages all get fucky too.

So the mass printing of money meant that banks didn't collapse.

It also meant that a fucktonne of cash went into the hands of the uber rich.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#390

Post by JumpCrisscross » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:12 PM UTC

RealityVoid wrote: post #339

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If it can't be _your_ currency let it at least be a currency no other nation controls At that point just hoard resources. Holding a bunch of Bitcoin in a crisis is useless for a country if no other country will buy them off you in exchange for tradeable hard currency.

You are right. My point is that if you have international trade of even mild complexity, having a currency is very convenient so trade will end up being denominated in one. No reason it can't be some crypto that is not backed by any nation.

> No reason it can't be some crypto that is not backed by any nation

There is a great reason: a state-backed currency should always be accepted by that state. If the world is in crisis, you may wind up stuck with your Bitcoins.