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Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

theatlantic.com

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Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#381

Post by ToValueFunfetti »

tgsovlerkhgsel wrote: post #374
thecupisblue wrote: post #280

Not just America, everything is. With stock market, at least we can somehow stop the bad actors, insider traders, corporate manipulation, pumps and dumps - with prediction markets, there is no way. With prediction markets? Next to impossible. The markets being tied to crypto makes it even worse - things get harder to track, jurisdictions get blurry, proving becomes a ping pong between bureaucracy. And proving somethi…

There are some distinctions between gambling and prediction markets. For example, in prediction markets, some forms of insider trading are considered somewhat desirable - essentially, it monetizes insiders leaking inside information. Other forms of insider trading can be problematic: What if someone (could be an individual or even an uncoordinated group) bets millions of dollars on you not doing X, in the hopes of yo…

>What if someone (could be an individual or even an uncoordinated group) bets millions of dollars on you not doing X, in the hopes of you taking the opposite bet and doing X?

If the market is efficient and aware of the bribery effect, others will bet that you will do X up to the point where the indirect bribe is equal to the cost of you doing X. If you have private knowledge that a bribe would be taken, you probably have the access to do it far cheaper off market (and you can still use crypto).

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#382

Post by giantg2 »

shimman wrote: post #240
giantg2 wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Polymarket has been around for a while. I thought the agreement happened under the Biden admin, but I could be wrong.

Prediction markets are highly regulated, it's just not being enforced... This is just a way to launder money to those with insider info to profit from. Also who the fuck cares if it happened under Biden? Is that some sort of gotcha you conjured up? Democratic members hate the democratic party more than Trump, no one cares about Biden or what he did but they sure do care what he failed to do.

"Also who the fuck cares if it happened under Biden?"

Your comment said the next administration will enforce it. It seems that administrations from either party have not.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#383

Post by nemomarx »

banannaise wrote: post #379
jbstack wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a matter of adopting sensible definitions, I think you need to draw the line somewhere between what is gambling and what is not. If the risk taken can, in principle, be shifted in your favour (i.e. to produce positive expectation) through application of skill, then it isn't gambling. For example, in my mind, betting on whether you will win a game of chess is not gambling. On the other hand, if you cannot influence…

Talking about "traditional" sports gambling rather than prediction markets: how do we account for the heavy restrictions they place on "sharps" (consistent winners)? If a game can be won through application of skill, but winning through application of skill causes you to be effectively banned, then the game cannot be won through application of skill.

Phrase it like this - market makers and casinos and other hosts really don't want it be a game of skill.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#384

Post by sznio »

nkrisc wrote: post #322
entropyneur wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stock market integrity is important because of their function in the economy. Scamming of gambling addicts is tragic but not detrimental to society.

The gambling industry itself is a net drain on society. What is the societal benefit provided by it?

>What is the societal benefit provided by it?

Same as beer or any other drug - just a way to have some fun and not destructive provided you can control yourself.

Though, the one time I opened a CSGO gun case and felt the dopamine rush, it was way stronger than any drug I've done. Not that I'm a "highly-experienced individual", but alcohol, weed or adderall don't come close to a CSGO case. Gambling feels much riskier.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#385

Post by JohnMakin »

Prediction markets to me are a natural consequence of the post-truth world we live in.

For one, it creates insanely imbalanced systems where two sides of a 50/50 market have completely opposite world views that when the market resolves may have access to sources, whether completely fake or misinfo'd, that lead them to believe the market should be settled in their favor. This then puts the prediction market in a place where it is the "arbiter" of reality - in a world where media has become so corrupt and full of noise, finding out what actually happened can be really hard.

So then, a market such as this seems inevitable to me because you can then point to markets and say "see, it resolved this way." It does not perfectly align with truth but with market forces would probably lead to more truth than a reality where you just cherrypick whatever biased source that makes you feel good does. And of course, the market itself can become corrupt.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#386

Post by Joker_vD »

Ajedi32 wrote: post #368
layoric wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, a market is a small tool of larger systems. That’s fine, hard to get right but can make systems better. Type two just seems to be the cargo culted everywhere..

I think it's actually not that hard to get right (or at least "right enough"), as evidenced by the fact that markets have successfully run the entire global economy for thousands of years with no central oversight and almost no regulation. Markets failures do happen, and when they do it can be helpful to have an external force step in to nudge the market back onto the rails. But even without such interventions they w…

> markets have successfully run the entire global economy for thousands of years

Markets, as they are understood today, are more like about 300 years old, even less in some places. The bulk of world economy has been sustenance farming for most of the human history, with some communal mutual help (based on favours and mutual indebtedness) thrown in.

> with no central oversight and almost no regulation

Lol what? E.g. Roman Republic (and later empire) tightly regulated its markets, especially food trade, during all of its existence.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#387

Post by whimsicalism »

terminalshort wrote: post #316
cjs_ac wrote: post #275

> These markets are also manipulable. In 2012, one bettor on the now-defunct prediction market Intrade placed a series of huge wagers on Mitt Romney in the two weeks preceding the election, generating a betting line indicative of a tight race. The bettor did not seem motivated by financial gain, according to two researchers who examined the trades. “More plausibly, this trader could have been attempting to manipulate…

This is just implausible. Nobody with a brain is going to throw away 4 million on the speculative hope that a prediction market price is going to magically manipulate media coverage on the election.

Not sure why you’re downvoted. Not only are you obviously right, nobody cared about prediction markets in 2012

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#388

Post by whimsicalism »

I consider myself a progressive because I strongly support taxation and redistribution, but the modern media’s tendency to pearl-clutch over every new technological/market development is pretty alienating to me. Nothing in this article seems at all catastrophic.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#389

Post by hamdingers »

banannaise wrote: post #379
jbstack wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a matter of adopting sensible definitions, I think you need to draw the line somewhere between what is gambling and what is not. If the risk taken can, in principle, be shifted in your favour (i.e. to produce positive expectation) through application of skill, then it isn't gambling. For example, in my mind, betting on whether you will win a game of chess is not gambling. On the other hand, if you cannot influence…

Talking about "traditional" sports gambling rather than prediction markets: how do we account for the heavy restrictions they place on "sharps" (consistent winners)? If a game can be won through application of skill, but winning through application of skill causes you to be effectively banned, then the game cannot be won through application of skill.

The game is still won through the application of skill even if the house chooses not to play it with you.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#390

Post by whimsicalism »

cjs_ac wrote: post #278
misja111 wrote: post #271

I read the article but failed to grasp what exactly the disaster is that America would be walking into. Is the reliability of Polymarket predictions overhyped? Sure. Is there manipulation of Polymarket odds by some people? Most likely there is. But to say that this is a disaster that America is walking into is nothing else but clickbait.

The disaster is the consequences of people treating the data generated by these prediction markets as revealing some sort of insight into future events, rather than just a silly game played by silly people.

Markets are good at aggregating information. If there are so many obviously flawed predictions, I recommend you become one of the silly people as it sounds like you would quickly be rich.
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