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There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

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Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#381

Post by nostrademons »

nonethewiser wrote: post #308
JasonADrury wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There are 9 nuclear-armed states today. Likely this has set us on a path where nuclear war is inevitable. It's really hard to guess how retaliation would happen in practice, a large-scale nuclear war certainly isn't inevitable . The most likely targets for nuclear strikes right now are also non-nuclear states.

People massively simplify the dynamics of launching a nuke. If Russia launched a nuke on a Ukrainian military target away from civilians there is virtually 0 chance of nuclear retaliation. Ukraine doesn't have them. Does anyone think the US, France, etc. would nuke Russia? Of course not. It's scary, but in some scenarios one nation can absolutely nuke another nation without threat of getting nuked themselves. In real…

The problem is the precedent that sets. Russia launches a nuke on Ukraine, and there are no repercussions. That will teach every nuclear-armed state that they can freely nuke non-nuclear-armed states without consequence. But then what happens when somebody makes a mistake? China nukes Japan, but maybe Japan had a secret nuclear program and actually does have a retaliatory capability and nukes China back? Or China invades Taiwan (doesn't even have to nuke it), but the U.S. decides that the loss of Taiwanese semiconductor is actually an unacceptable red line and nukes the invasion fleet? Pakistan nukes India, but China misjudges the trajectory of the nuke and thinks it's actually under attack. Israel nukes Iran, but winds carry the fallout over Pakistan and India.

Game theory works when players know the payout matrix. When the assumed payout matrix is shown to be false, you get very chaotic, almost random results, because you can't assume that your opponents will correctly choose the rational choice. With WMDs, the consequences of that can be deadly. That's why both nuclear proliferation and "limited" nuclear war are such fraught choices, and why the major nuclear powers have worked so hard to avoid them. They've run the game theoretic simulations and understand that it doesn't lead anywhere good.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#382

Post by MaxHoppersGhost »

lawlessone wrote: post #8

Look for the same with Greenland or Canada next :/

Canada has a strong army and can defend itself. Greenland on the other hand is not well defended and I doubt Denmark really cares (e.g., if they’re willing to send tens of thousands of troops to die for it) if it was occupied by China or Russia in the event of a war.

Greenland is a massive strategic liability for the US and Europe (although the EU still has its head in the sand they are starting to wake up some).

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#383

Post by [deleted] »

JasonADrury wrote: post #167
CGMthrowaway wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Didn't we just do something like that in Iran? Not helicopters, but we still secured the airspace just the same.

Securing airspace for fancy stealth bombers is rather different from securing airspace for helicopters you can shoot down with just about anything.

[deleted]

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#384

Post by ozmodiar »

teiferer wrote: post #357
KPGv2 wrote: post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is no actual international law. There is, of course, both private and public international law. You don't know what you're talking about.

There is something by that name, but it doesn't mean much. On the international level, it's all voluntary. States can choose to be part of the international courts. The US (and many other high profile countries) famously are not participating, which is why they can effectively just commit war crimes left and right. In contrast, if you go rob a grocery store, you can't just opt out of punishment. "I'm not a member of…

Why stop at international law? It's no different than a lot of civil, financial, criminal law. You just get big enough and now there's nothing the system can do about you. It's become increasingly apparent that having the right friends and enough money is the only 'law' that matters at any level of society, and people will be too disengaged or selfish to do anything about it besides reap the rewards if they're in the right place. Laws only work on the disempowered, and in that sense international law is exactly as powerful as the law of the land in whatever country you live in.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#385

Post by FumblingBear »

DiggyJohnson wrote: post #36

Was the OSRS economy affected by the strikes? I'm assuming they didn't disrupt internet access for most Venezuelan citizens but I have not looked into it yet.

My clanmates and I noticed that some of the more popular goldfarming hotspots were much less populated that day. Rev caves, Zalcano, etc. Not sure about impacts for the broader economy though. Maybe FlippingOldSchool will release a video analyzing the economic trends over the course of that week? Would be interesting for sure.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#386

Post by ceejayoz »

TZubiri wrote: post #369
catigula wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ridiculous post. Power outages would kill a lot of people if sustained. A Carrington event would devastate modern society.

You mean in hospital contexts? I'm having trouble thinking how power outages can be deadly.

If it's hot/cold, elderly/vulnerable people tend to die pretty quick.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_European_heatwaves

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis

You'll get some food poisoning deaths from food that got too warm in fridges. People who rely on home medical equipment like oxygen concentrators. Car crashes in busy intersections that no longer have traffic lights. Fires from candles. etc. etc. etc.

Even critical infrastructure eventually craps out.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/22/science/atomic-clock-late...

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#387

Post by monocasa »

Ray20 wrote: post #368
monocasa wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but I think these discussions are more enlightening when we model superpowers as rational actors within their ideological system rather than just whatever propaganda is locally convenient.

> when we model superpowers as rational actors within their ideological system But they are not. We can thus look at the people who make decisions, but not at the countries themselves. So, it’s most likely not about joining NATO, but about European integration and economic growth.

They absolutely are.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#390

Post by NoMoreNicksLeft »

JasonADrury wrote: post #85
NoMoreNicksLeft wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It's extremely difficult to believe that the US could fly a bunch of helicopters to Pyongyang or Tehran and do the same within 30 minutes. Would your answer change if China were somehow guaranteed to not intervene? Because I'm not sure the obstacle here is North Korean defenses, so much as Chinese intervention. Tehran? I think it'd go more or less like Caracas did.

>Would your answer change if China were somehow guaranteed to not intervene? Because I'm not sure the obstacle here is North Korean defenses, so much as Chinese intervention. No. The obstacle isn't Chinese intervention, the obstacle is that such an operation would have to be significantly larger and it would take longer. There would be much more air defense assets to suppress, and some of them would be impossible to…

>A helicopter assault on either of those cities would in the most optimistic scenario take hours of preparatory bombing, which would give a plenty of time for nuclear retaliation b

I have serious doubts they can manage anything more than a fizzle yield, but also only give them a one-in-three chance of a successful ballistic launch. It may be the case that they don't even have the preparatory work done, in which case hours isn't enough to launch, they'd need days/weeks. In any event, we're talking about one or two missiles only, and the Navy's ability to shoot those down in the midcourse/terminal phase is sufficient for such a small salvo.

If North Korea wanted to nuke us, they'd be better off handing the warhead off to some terrorist group to truck it across the Mexican border. Supposing their stuff is even small enough to smuggle.

>Tehran doesn't have a fancy air defense network, but it does have one.

But it doesn't have a China willing to rush in with 1 million PLA infantry. Which is really North Korea's only saving grace. Even if we got Kim out before they could mobilize, they'd be strutting and posturing for weeks, and there are any number of places they could fuck things up in retaliation. Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Japan, they might even stir shit up with India. They could, one supposes, send a few divisions to Russia on loan, and enter into the Ukraine fray. And no clever strategy is going to counter that stuff. Some of this stuff they're already considering and only hesitant... a North Korea operation might goad them into working up the courage to try it.

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