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Is it a bubble?

oaktreecapital.com

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Re: Is it a bubble?

#381

Post by qsort »

whimsicalism wrote: post #316
sp4cec0wb0y wrote: post #7

> In many advanced software teams, developers no longer write the code; they type in what they want, and AI systems generate the code for them. What a wild and speculative claim. Is there any source for this information?

Wow, reading these comments and I feel like I've entered a parallel reality. My job involves implementing research ML and I use it literally all the time, very fascinating to see how many have such strong negative reactions. As long as you are good at reviewing code, spec-ing carefully, and make atomic changes - why would you not be using this basically all the time?

It's one of the failure modes of online forums. Everyone piles on and you get an unrealistic opinion sample. I'm not exactly trying to shove AI into everything, I'm weary of over hyping and mostly conservative in my technology choices. Still, I get a lot out of LLMs and agents for coding tasks.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#382

Post by YetAnotherNick »

dmurvihill wrote: post #340

This says it all: > I haven’t met anyone who doesn’t believe artificial intelligence has the potential to be one of the biggest technological developments of all time, reshaping both daily life and the global economy. You’re trying to weigh in on this topic and you didn’t even _talk_ to a bear?

> artificial intelligence has the potential to be one of the biggest technological developments of all time, reshaping both daily life and the global economy.

This seems like a factually correct sentence. Emphasis on "potential".

Re: Is it a bubble?

#383

Post by ACCount37 »

ares623 wrote: post #380
ACCount37 wrote: post #379

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the alternative? Is there literally any AI tech more promising and disruptive than LLMs? Or should we buy into that "it's not ackhtually AI" meme?

The alternative is to be f*cking honest

"Fucking honest" how?

If I'm being fucking honest, then this generation of LLMs might already beat most humans on raw intelligence, AI progress shows no signs of stopping, and "it's not actually thinking" is just another "AI effect" cope that humans come up with to feel more important and more exceptional.

Or is this not the "fucking honesty" you want?

Re: Is it a bubble?

#384

Post by emptyfile »

satvikpendem wrote: post #303
moomoo11 wrote: post #284

Man some you guys are lame. Seriously. Remember 2019-2021 when y’all were sure the fed would be dissolved and the dollar would crash and everyone would be poor if they didn’t have a bored ape and 80% bitcoin portfolio? Relax. AI is a tool. Just ride the wave. It’s gonna crash some people out. It’s entertaining watching them. You’re not being crashed out, right? Ride the wave dawg.

> Remember 2019-2021 when y’all were sure the fed would be dissolved and the dollar would crash and everyone would be poor if they didn’t have a bored ape and 80% bitcoin portfolio? I don't know which "y'all" you're talking about because it's certainly not the HN crowd, who is famously anti-cryptocurrency in general. Perhaps you're thinking of the bros on Twitter back then.

[dead]

Re: Is it a bubble?

#385

Post by asimpletune »

The AI/LLM movement is either utterly transformational or it’s not. By the former I mean there is no daylight between it and the latter.

If it’s not transformational then this is a bubble and the market will right itself soon after, e.g buying data centers for cheap. LLMs will then exist as a useful but limited tool that becomes profitable with the lower capex.

If it is transformational then we don’t have the societal structure to responsibly incorporate such a shift.

The conservative guess is it won’t be transformational, that the current applications of the tech are useful but not in a way that justifies the capex, and that some version of agents and chat bots will continue to be built out in the future but with a focus on efficiency. Smaller models that require less power to train and run inference that are ubiquitous. Eventually many will run on device.

I guess there’s also another version of the future that’s quasi-transformational. Instead of any massive breakthrough there’s a successful govt coup or regulatory capture. Perfectly functioning normal stuff is then replaced with LLM assisted or augmented versions everywhere. This version is like the emergence of the automobile in the sense that the car fundamentally altered city planning, where and how people live, but often at the expense of public transportation that in hindsight may have sorely been missed.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#386

Post by PurpleRamen »

sp4cec0wb0y wrote: post #7

> In many advanced software teams, developers no longer write the code; they type in what they want, and AI systems generate the code for them. What a wild and speculative claim. Is there any source for this information?

Yes and no. There is the infamous quote of Microsoft, about 30%(?) of their code being written by AI now. And technically, it's probably not that such a wild claim in certain areas. AI is very good at barfing up common popular patterns, and companies have a huge amount of patternized software, like UIs, tests, documentation or marketing-fluff. So it's quite easy to "outsource" such grunt-work if AI has the necessary level.

But to say that they don't write any code at all, it's really stretched. Maybe I'm not good enough at AI-assisted and vibe coding, but code-quality always seems to drop down really hard the moment one steps a bit outside the common patterns.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#387

Post by aaa_aaa »

Too long and aouthor does not have a clue on the fact that currently generational models are almost only useful for software development. Other than that it is mostly fluff.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#388

Post by askl »

thenaturalist wrote: post #354
dmurvihill wrote: post #340

This says it all: > I haven’t met anyone who doesn’t believe artificial intelligence has the potential to be one of the biggest technological developments of all time, reshaping both daily life and the global economy. You’re trying to weigh in on this topic and you didn’t even _talk_ to a bear?

Also equating artificial intelligence with LLMs. I get that laymen and the media do it, but imo this looks really bad for an investor.

> but imo this looks really bad for an investor.

Why? Would you expect an investor to understand what they're investing in?

Re: Is it a bubble?

#390

Post by badsectoracula »

wakawaka28 wrote: post #215
IanCal wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are three takes that I think are not depressing: * Being excited to be able to write the pieces of code they want, and not others. When you sit down to write code, you do not do everything from scratch, you lean on libraries, compilers, etc. Take the most annoying boilerplate bit of code you have to write now - would you be happy if a new language/framework popped up that eliminated it? * Being excited to be ab…

Those are all good outcomes, up to a point. But if this stuff works TOO well, most or maybe all of us will have to start looking at other career options. Whatever autonomy you think you have in deciding what the AI does, that can ultimately be trained as well, and it will be the more people use it. I personally don't like it when others who don't know how to code are able to get results using AI. I spent many years o…

> I personally don't like it when others who don't know how to code are able to get results using AI.

Sounds like for many programmers AI is the new Visual Basic 6 :-P

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