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Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

economist.com

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Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#381

Post by zipy124 »

AIorNot wrote: post #260

Well as a single datum: After I got laid off in late 2023 I had a devil of a time finding work (despite having AI experience) to the point my unemployment ran out - And I was 20 years as a dev and tech lead and full stack, (never had trouble finding work) including stints as a leading EM and CTO, I’ve been an industry award winning innovation lead,a digital studio director, switching tech stacks and cloud certs all m…

Being overqualified is indeed a real phenomenom. Employers can think your too expensive, or that your desperatem and that you might not stick around long. All valid concerns.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#383

Post by lotsofpulp »

reactordev wrote: post #110
bluGill wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have heard that story every few years for the last 30. I know when it is your personal situation things are hard, but your story is nothing new and people recover. Some get back into whatever their degree was, others start a new career and never do. this will happen again.

I was going to say this. Money comes, money goes, that’s life. Ideally you’re smart enough to save and invest to weather these storms but for those (like myself) that are still working hard post 40, we know it’s all part of the game. I tell the younger generation the same thing. Save, invest, max 401k, before you go off and party. Your older self will thank you.

> I tell the younger generation the same thing. Save, invest, max 401k, before you go off and party. Your older self will thank you.

401k max is $24,500. How much do you expect a person to earn to be able to max it out? And what percentile income is that at the bottom and top of the age range you consider “young”?

https://dqydj.com/income-percentile-by-age-calculator/

Tldr: you are telling almost every 20 to 30 year old to not party.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#384

Post by spaceman_2020 »

AIorNot wrote: post #260

Well as a single datum: After I got laid off in late 2023 I had a devil of a time finding work (despite having AI experience) to the point my unemployment ran out - And I was 20 years as a dev and tech lead and full stack, (never had trouble finding work) including stints as a leading EM and CTO, I’ve been an industry award winning innovation lead,a digital studio director, switching tech stacks and cloud certs all m…

My brother who is nearly 50 and has worked in tech since the dot com boom, got laid off in January and couldn't find a job until last week. This job, too, was just a contractual position at his old Fortune 50 firm.

He has an engineering degree from one of the top 5 engineering colleges in India, a Master's from one of the top 5 engineering schools in the US. He built some of the systems that form the foundation of the entire call center industry.

And now he pivoted to GenAI and has dozens of very impressive public projects including some heavily starred open source repos

And yet...nothing.

Ageism in the tech industry has never been worse

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#385

Post by cjs_ac »

reactordev wrote: post #379
cjs_ac wrote: post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I appreciate the point you're trying to make, and I agree taking responsibility for one's own life circumstances is the only way to improve them, but surely you understand that 'save and invest' is wholly unsuitable advice for someone with no disposable income or no income at all.

Who else is responsible for you? You have two options. Continue to point fingers and complain and be broke, or start putting $100/mo in VOO and save what little money you have for your future? I know it sucks. I know income inequality is huge. I know the only way out of this is to put in sweat equity. I know the only way to put food on the table is to have a second job at a gas station. I’ve been there. However, as m…

As I said, I agree with taking personal responsibility - I'm not sure why you're still trying to fight me on that.

> You have two options. Continue to point fingers and complain and be broke, or start putting $100/mo in VOO and save what little money you have for your future?

The imaginary person you're trying to give this advice to graduated from university eighteen months ago and has been living in their parents' house ever since, applying for jobs non-stop. Their income is $0 per month. They are entirely unable to apply your advice; applying your advice is something they aspire to.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#386

Post by lotsofpulp »

reactordev wrote: post #379
cjs_ac wrote: post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I appreciate the point you're trying to make, and I agree taking responsibility for one's own life circumstances is the only way to improve them, but surely you understand that 'save and invest' is wholly unsuitable advice for someone with no disposable income or no income at all.

Who else is responsible for you? You have two options. Continue to point fingers and complain and be broke, or start putting $100/mo in VOO and save what little money you have for your future? I know it sucks. I know income inequality is huge. I know the only way out of this is to put in sweat equity. I know the only way to put food on the table is to have a second job at a gas station. I’ve been there. However, as m…

$100/month in VOO isn’t going to do anything (except help people like me who already own a lot).

> the only way out of your mess is by you working your way out of your mess.

Third option is revolution. Could be violent, could be passive like not starting families, complaining on the internet, scrolling tiktok as long as the benefits and body allow, and suicide if necessary.

It is possible for too much of the benefits of working having too high of a likelihood of being captured by rent seekers to not make the work worth it. In old times, the lack of birth control made people have to work more due to needing to support kids, but if I didn’t have kids, I could get by with a much lower standard of living.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#387

Post by windward »

dragonwriter wrote: post #229
pfisherman wrote: post #213

My pet theory is that we are experiencing stagflation, but only people >70 years old have ever really experienced it before, so most people are just scratching their heads wondering how it’s possible that stocks keep going up (inflation) while jobs are disappearing (stagnation). I am most definitely not an economist, nor am I qualified to play one on tv.

> My pet theory is that we are experiencing stagflation, but only people >70 years old have ever really experienced it before, so most people are just scratching their heads wondering how it’s possible that stocks keep going up (inflation) while jobs are disappearing (stagnation). We do not seem to be technically experiencing stagflation,ir really either half of it, on a national scale, as we appear to still be in a…

>we are in a very weak economy especially outside of the leading AI firms

Isn't that part of the cause? It sucks up so much investment, there's nothing left for anything else. Or at least nothing without such perceived upside.

Either they pull it off and you're replaced by AGI, or they fail to pull it off and you lose your job to the resulting economic implosion.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#388

Post by MikeNotThePope »

DrProtic wrote: post #366
forgotoldacc wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That signifies that your company is not appealing to impressive candidates for some reason or another. Companies that offer good pay, some other great benefits in the place of good pay, or kind of okay pay but very interesting work have no trouble getting people, especially in today's market.

That goes against the idea that impressive candidates have a difficulty finding a job.

If you're a stellar applicant, you can still get ghosted by simply having your CV at the bottom on the pile.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#389

Post by lvl155 »

AIorNot wrote: post #260

Well as a single datum: After I got laid off in late 2023 I had a devil of a time finding work (despite having AI experience) to the point my unemployment ran out - And I was 20 years as a dev and tech lead and full stack, (never had trouble finding work) including stints as a leading EM and CTO, I’ve been an industry award winning innovation lead,a digital studio director, switching tech stacks and cloud certs all m…

What’s admirable is that you’ve actually applied to jobs below your pay grade. Most people won’t because doing that grind in your 40s is actually hard especially if you have kids.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#390

Post by elric »

fragmede wrote: post #363
elric wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some anecdata from Belgium: the software market is dead. Hardly anyone is hiring. Rates have plummetted. There are (virtually) no startups. Big corpos are hiring in Southern and Eastern Europe instead, when they're not outsourcing to India. Unlike some of the US commenters, our high tax rates and lack of stock-options driven reward schemes means that most of us don't have enough money in the bank to casually found a…

I've been lead to believe that, in lieu of startup founding cash in the bank, there's a better social safety net, for use in cases like these. Is that not the case?

There is a pretty good social safety net, at least in Belgium. Though its funding is under pressure due to high spending and taxes being pretty much maxed out already. And while I could probably start a company and be reasonably sure that I won't go homeless if it fails, by virtue of that social safety net. The social safety net doesn't give me the cash to hire my first couple of engineers.

This is a bit of a caricature of course. Banks exist. Startup accelerators exist. There are places and ways to get funding. But doing it with your own savings is virtually unheard of over here.

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