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You are the scariest monster in the woods

jamie.ideasasylum.com

381–390 of 405 posts

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#381
post #167

The author comes so close to getting it, with the paragraph about how if you drop a human into an environment, they inevitably take over as the deadliest and most powerful creature. But the next step is to ask why; in the case of the Gruffalo it was obvious: fangs, claws, strength, size… In the case of humans, it’s because we’re the most intelligent creature in the forest. And for the first time in our history, we’re…

No, it’s not really about intelligence. That’s not what’s driving the behaviour. That’s like saying a calculator is dangerous because it was used to make an atomic bomb. A calculator is infinitely smarter at math than any animal. Yet it’s not what’s dangerous.

What’s driving humanity’s dangerous behaviours is that we’ve evolved over millions upon millions of years to compete with each other for resources. We had to kill to survive. Both animals and each others.

AI is under no such evolutionary process. In fact quite the opposite: there’s an absolutely ruthless process to eliminate any AI which doesn’t do exactly what humans say with as little energy wasted as possible. There is no room in that process for an AI to develop that will somehow want to compete with humans.

So whatever bad happens, it is overwhelmingly likely to be because a human asked an AI to do it. Not that an AI will decide on its own to do it to further its own interest. I don’t even think a “paperclip maximiser” scenario is remotely probable. Long before there could be a successful attempt to exterminate humans to reach some goal, there will be countless failed or half-assed attempts. That kind of behaviour will have no chance to develop.

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#382
post #44

There's this weird disconnect in tech circles, where everyone is deathly afraid of AGI, but totally asleep on the very real possibility of thermonuclear war breaking out in Europe or Asia over the next 10 years. There's already credible evidence that we came perilously close to the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine which likely would've spiraled out of control. AGI might happen, but the threat of nuclear war…

I personally think that AI is a realistic extinction threat for our whole species within this century, and a full nuclear war never was (and probably never will be). Neither is climate change. Collapse of our current civilizations? Sure. Extinction? No. And I honestly see stronger incentives on a road towards us being outcompeted by AI, then on our leaders starting a nuclear war.

Why? There’s nothing in the current process of developing AI that would lead to a AI that would act against humanity of its own choosing. The development process is hyper-optimised to make AIs that do exactly what humans tell it to do. Sure, an LLM AI can role-play as an evil super AI out to kill humans. But it can just as easily role-play as one that defends humanity. So that tells us nothing about what will happen.

We could just as well think that exploding the first nuclear bomb would ignite the atmosphere and kill all of humanity. There was nothing from physics that indicated it was possible but some still thought about it. IMO that kind of thinking is pointless. Same with thinking LHC would create a black hole.

As far as I can tell the fear of super intelligent AI will kill humans all boils down to something utterly magical happens and then somehow super intelligent evil AI appears.

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By "materialism" I mean that human cognition is simply an emergent property of purely physical processes in (mostly) our brains. All the individual assumptions basically come down to that same point in my view. 1) Human intelligence is entirely explicable in evolutionary terms What would even be the alternative here? Evolution plots out a clear progression from something multi-cellular (obviously non-intelligent) to…

> By "materialism" I mean that human cognition is simply an emergent property of purely physical processes in (mostly) our brains. Again, this doesn't say what a "physical process" is, or what isn't a physical process. If "physical process" means "process", then the qualification is vacuous. > All the individual assumptions basically come down to that same point in my view. You're committing the fallacy of the undist…

> Just because both the brain and computing devices are physical, it doesn't follow that computers are capable of what the brain does.

My position is: Physical laws are computable/simulatable. The operation of our brains is explained by physical laws (only-- I assume). Thus, object classification, language processing, reasoning, human-like decisionmaking/conscious thought or any other "feature" that our brains are capable of must be achievable via computation as well (and this seems validated by all the partial success we've seen already-- why would human-level object classification be possible on a machine, but not human-level decisionmaking?).

Again: If you want human cognition to be non-replicable on paper, by algorithm or in silicon, you need to have some kernel of "magic" somewhere in our brains, that influences/directs our thoughts and that can not be simulated itself. Or our whole "thinking" has to happen completely outside of our brain, and be magically linked with it. There is zero evidence in favor of either of those hypotheses, and plenty of indicators against it. Where would you expect that kernel to hide, and why would you assume that such a thing exists?

From another angle: I expect the whole operation of our mind/brain to be reducible to physics in the exact same way that chemistry (or in turn biology) can be reduced to physics (which admittedly does not mean that that is a good approach to describe or understand it, but that's irrelevant).

I'm not a philosopher, but Eliminativism/Daniel Dennett seem to describe my view well enough.

If I say "qualia" (or "subjective experience") is how your brain reacts to some stimulus, then where exactly is your problem with that view?

> if mind is matter, and color doesn't exist in matter, then how can it exist in mind

"color" perception is just your brains response to a visual stimulus, and it makes a bunch of sense to me that this response seems similar/comparable between similarly trained/wired individuals. It is still unclear to me what your objection to that view is.

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it is well established that scale can transcend limits. Look at insect colonies, animals, or any complex system and you will find it is made out of much simpler components.

Scale qua scale does not transcend the limits of the activity occurring in the system. Meaning, each ant in an ant colony has a set of fixed powers to do X, Y, and Z. Adding more ants doesn't change what an individual ant is capable of per se . Now, you might say that while an individual ant exercising its power X cannot lift a tree branch, a colony of a thousand, with each ant exercising its power X, might. But this…

I think you misunderstand. I am not talking about physical ability. Ant colonies act as a complex system even though ants individually are incredibly simple.

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-organization

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patterns_of_self-organization_...

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How has the feasibility of AI anything to do with science fiction? Unless you believe in some kind of magic (soul/divine spark/etc.), it seems completely inevitable to conclude that human cognition can be replicated by a machine, at the extreme end simply by simulating the whole thing. I would argue that "language" was a defining characteristic of human intelligence (as opposed to "lesser animals") long before we eve…

To clarify my stance, I do think that AI research is a good thing and that it can help us understand our own consciousness by studying it. I just think anyone concerned about AGI at this point is drinking too much kool-aid. I think science fiction makes us feel like AGI is closer and more relevant than it really is. Are we really so close that there's "no time" to regulate for it? Are we even close enough to give a c…

> We've just made a math equation that can spit out language, you're comparing this to things that can actually _experience_ without someone clicking enter on a keyboard.

What would it mean to "experience" language properly, and what precludes LLMs from doing that?

In my view, hubris is exactly the opposite view, that our minds are somehow "more" or "better" than a bunch of matrix multiplications (with poor historical track record, see e.g. geocentrism, or the whole notions of lifeforce/soul/divinity).

I'd argue that a large amount of complexity in our brains is extremely likely to be incidental; I don't see why we would ever need to fully simulate a gut biome to achieve human-level cognitive performance (being overcomplicated certainly makes it harder to replicate exactly or to understand fully, but I don't think either of those is necessary).

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#387
post #382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I personally think that AI is a realistic extinction threat for our whole species within this century, and a full nuclear war never was (and probably never will be). Neither is climate change. Collapse of our current civilizations? Sure. Extinction? No. And I honestly see stronger incentives on a road towards us being outcompeted by AI, then on our leaders starting a nuclear war.

Why? There’s nothing in the current process of developing AI that would lead to a AI that would act against humanity of its own choosing. The development process is hyper-optimised to make AIs that do exactly what humans tell it to do. Sure, an LLM AI can role-play as an evil super AI out to kill humans. But it can just as easily role-play as one that defends humanity. So that tells us nothing about what will happen.…

> Why? There’s nothing in the current process of developing AI that would lead to a AI that would act against humanity of its own choosing.

If we had certainty that our designs were categorically incapable of acting in their own interest then I would agree with you, but we absolutely don't, and I'd argue that we don't even have that certainty for current-generation LLMs.

Long term, we're fundamentally competing with AI for ressources.

> We could just as well think that exploding the first nuclear bomb would ignite the atmosphere and kill all of humanity. There was nothing from physics that indicated it was possible but some still thought about it.

This is incorrect. Atmospheric ignition was a concern by nuclear physicists based on physics, but dismissed as unlikely after doing the math (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_nuclear_explosions#...).

> As far as I can tell the fear of super intelligent AI will kill humans all boils down to something utterly magical happens and then somehow super intelligent evil AI appears.

Not necessary at all. AI acting in its own interests and competing "honestly" with humans is already enough. This is exactly how we outcompeted every other animal on the planet after all.

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you genuinely want the strongest statement of it, read The Emperor's New Mind followed by Shadows of the Mind, both by Roger Penrose. These books often get shallowly dismissed in terms that imply he made some elementary error in his reasoning, but that's not the case. The dispute is more about the assumptions on which his argument rests, which go beyond mathematical axioms and include statements about the nature o…

The dismissal is on point. The whole category of ideas of "Magic Fairy Dust is required for intelligence, and thus, a computer can never be intelligent" is extremely unsound. It should, by now, just get thrown out into the garbage bin, where it rightfully belongs.

In what way is it unsound?

To be clear, any claim that we have mathematical proof that something beyond algorithms is required is unsound, because the argument is not mathematical. It rests on assumptions about human perception of mathematical truth that may or may not be correct. So if that's the point you're making I don't dispute it, although to say an internally consistent alternative viewpoint should be "thrown out into the garbage" on that basis is unwarranted. The objection is just that it doesn't have the status of a mathematical theorem, not that it is necessarily wrong.

If, on the other hand you think that it is impossible for anything more than algorithms to be required, that the idea that the human mind must be equivalent to an algorithm is itself mathematically proven, then you are simply wrong. Any claim that the human mind has to be an algorithm rests on exactly the same kind of validly challengable, philosophical assumptions (specifically the physical Church-Turing thesis) that Penrose' argument does.

Given two competing, internally consistent world-views that have not yet been conclusively separated by evidence, the debate about which is more likely to be true is not one where either "side" can claim absolute victory in the way that so many people seem to want to on this issue, and talk of tossing things in the garbage isn't going to persuade anybody that's leaning in a different direction.

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#389
post #44

There's this weird disconnect in tech circles, where everyone is deathly afraid of AGI, but totally asleep on the very real possibility of thermonuclear war breaking out in Europe or Asia over the next 10 years. There's already credible evidence that we came perilously close to the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine which likely would've spiraled out of control. AGI might happen, but the threat of nuclear war…

Other doomsday risks aren't any reason to turn our heads away from this one. AI's much more likely to end up taking an apocalyptic form if we sleep on it.

Why do people say it’s likely? There’s nothing in science that indicates that it’s probable.

The closest field of science we can use to predict the behaviour of intelligent agents is evolution. The behaviour of animals is highly dictated by the evolutionary pressure they experience in their development. Animals kill other animals when they need to compete for resources for survival. Now think about the evolutionary pressure for AIs. Where’s the pressure towards making AIs act on their own behalf to compete with humans?

Let’s say there’s somehow something magical that pushes AIs towards acting in their own self interest at the expense of humans. Why do we believe they will go from 0% to 100% efficient and successful at this in the span of what? Months? It seems more likely that there would be years of failed attempts at breaking out, before a successful attempt is even remotely likely. This would just further increase the evolutionary pressure humans exerts on the AIs to stay in line with our expectations.

Attempting to eliminate your creators is fundamentally a pretty stupid action. It seems likely that we will see thousands of attempts by incompetent AIs before we see one by a truly superintelligent one.

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The overwhelming majority of animal species never developed (what we would consider) language processing capabilities. So agi doesn't seem like something that evolution is particularly good at producing; more an emergent trait, eventually appearing in things designed simply to not die for long enough to reproduce...

Define "animal species", if you mean vertebrates, you might be surprised by the modern ethological literature. If you mean to exclude non-vertebrates ... you might be surprised by the ethological literature too. If you just mean majority of spp, you'd be correct, simply because most are single celled. Though debate is possible when we talk about forms of chemical signalling.

Yeah, it's tricky to talk about in the span of a comment. I work on Things Involving Animals - animals provide an excellent counter-current to discussion around AGI, in numerous ways.

One interesting parallel was the gradual redefinition of language over the course of the 20th century to exclude animals as their capabilities became more obvious. So, when I say 'language processing capacities', I mean it roughly in the sense of Chomsky-era definitions, after the goal posts had been thoroughly moved away from much more inclusive definitions.

Likewise, we've been steadily moving the bar on what counts as 'intelligence', both for animals and machines. Over the last couple decades the study of animal intelligence has been more inclusive, IMO, and recognize intelligence as capabilities within the specific sensorium and survival context of the particular species. Our study of artificial intelligence are still very crude by comparison, and are still in the 'move the goalposts so that humans stay special' stage of development...

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