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After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

blog.robbowley.net

381–390 of 489 posts

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do we make money on it, especially if massive amounts of the population lose their jobs?

You know the quote "it is easier to imagine an end to the world than an end to capitalism"? Well, AI has allowed me to start imagining the end of capitalism. I'm not claiming we're necessarily very close, but I can clearly see the way from here to a post-scarcity society.

The only reason this shit is getting pushed on us as hard as it is because of hyper-capitalist psychos like Thiel and Altman. You are buying into the capitalist hype by actually thinking these systems will be used for anything other than fattening the capitalist's wallets, anything else is a sci-fi fantasy

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In what sense? It seems entirely possible to have a computer program that calls ChatGPT with questions on what stocks to buy, and for that computer program to then trade stock based on the results, entirely autonomously. No matter your opinion of the idea itself, why wouldn't that count as "making decisions"?

Are you buying stocks based on ChatGPT's advice?

Not especially. The computer program does all the work. It's the one that hits ChatGPT for a list of trades, and then the computer program hits the brokerage's API to execute the trades. I made the decision to set the program up in the first place, and the trades are happening on an account that has my name on it, sure, but as I'm not nit-picking each individual trade that gets made and it runs autonomously without a human in the loop, it seems fair to claim that ChatGPT is making decisions on what to buy on my behalf, even though I do have veto authority over the program and ChatGPT, and can stop it at any time.

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#384
post #147

Cell phones have been through how many generations between the 80s and now? All the past generations are obsolete, but the investment in improving the technology (which is really a continuation of WWII era RF engineering) means we have readily available low cost miniature comms equipment. It doesn’t matter that the capex on individual phones was wasted. Same for GPUs/LLMs? At some point things will mature and we’ll b…

I'm worried all that cheap easily accessible LLM capacity will be serving us ads if we're lucky and subtly pushing us to use brands that pay money if we're not. If AI says don't buy a subaru it's not worth the money, then Subaru pays attention and they are willing to pay money to get a better rec. Same for Univerisites. Students who see phrases like "If the degree is from brown flush it down" (ok hyperbole, but still…

I think people have more memetic immunity than you're giving them credit for. We're in the early days, people don't fully understand how to treat ChatGPT's outputs.

Soon enough, asking an LLM a question and blindly trusting the answer will be seen as ridiculous, like getting all your news from Fox News or Jacobin, or reading ads on websites. Human beings can eventually tell when they're being manipulated, and they just... won't be.

We've already seen how this works. Grok gets pushed to insert some wackjob conservative talking point, and then devolves into a mess of contradictions as soon as it has to rationalize it. Maybe it's possible to train an LLM to actually manipulate a person towards a specific outcome, but I do not think it will ever be easy or subtle.

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#385
post #369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's possible that people will learn not to trust LLMs.

I think it's possible but highly unlikely, given all the previous iterations of technology we've seen people come to trust despite its limitations.

Like what? Every new form of media has a wild-west phase where people are credulous; eventually people end up jaded.

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very US-centric article. Written by insecure people who are clinging to power and money desperately. I don't see how some kind of big breakthrough is going to happen with the current model designs. The superintelligence, if it will ever be created, will require a new breakthrough in model architecture. We've pretty much hit the limit of what is possible with current LLMs. The improvements are marginal at this point.…

It's a US/China centered article, because that's the game, Europe is not a meaningful player and everyone else is going to get sucked into orbit of one of the superpowers. If you read the article carefully, I work hard to keep my priors and the priors of the people in question separate, as their actions may be rational under their priors, but irrational under other priors, and I feel it's worth understanding that nua…

I read your article.

My cynical take is that this is the US committing economic suicide, based on a misguided belief in something that'll never happen.

The new superpowers will be the EU, which was smart enough not to make the same gamble, and China, which will structurally survive it.

I also disagree with your conclusion of a moral imperative to make sure that AI succeeds. I believe it's the opposite. AI failing would finally create the long-needed revolutionary moment to throw off the shackles of the oligarchy that got us into this mess in the first place.

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#388
post #384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm worried all that cheap easily accessible LLM capacity will be serving us ads if we're lucky and subtly pushing us to use brands that pay money if we're not. If AI says don't buy a subaru it's not worth the money, then Subaru pays attention and they are willing to pay money to get a better rec. Same for Univerisites. Students who see phrases like "If the degree is from brown flush it down" (ok hyperbole, but still…

I think people have more memetic immunity than you're giving them credit for. We're in the early days, people don't fully understand how to treat ChatGPT's outputs. Soon enough, asking an LLM a question and blindly trusting the answer will be seen as ridiculous, like getting all your news from Fox News or Jacobin, or reading ads on websites. Human beings can eventually tell when they're being manipulated, and they ju…

You mention Fox News and people knowing when they're manipulated and I struggle to see how that squares with the current reality of Fox News being the most popular news network and rising populism that very much relies on manipulation.

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To me this reads like someone's been inside the echo chamber too long. > For you AI skeptics, this is going to be rough to hear, but given the suffering that will occur if AI fails, I believe we have a moral imperative to make sure it succeeds. What if, and hear me out here, the prediction is that it will fail because it can't succeed. It hasn't proven it is capable of producing the results that would justify itself.…

I'm actually from a science, government and defense background, I've never worked in the valley. It might be possible that it can't succeed, but we don't know that and the evidence in terms of what happens if it fails is pretty compelling, so I think morality dictates we have to at least try, at least until we have more information or another path emerges.

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