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Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

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Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#381

Post by hunglee2 »

Clutching at straws but one silver lining from the accelerationist perspective is that the global economic damage of US Tariff War 2.0. will speed up the adoption of AI / automation. Payroll is one of the most expensive, high risk and illiquid commitments to the organisational budget, so the idea of replacing it with dial up / dial down Saas subscriptions will move from 'good idea' to 'business critical'

The effect will probably be similar to Covid / Remote Work - marginal idea until an externality made it essential. Does mean sh1t tons more unemployment though, so like I said, straws being clutched

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#382

Post by hunglee2 »

mupuff1234 wrote: post #174
lazarus01 wrote: post #69

In NYC, for the first 6 months of 2025, 994 new private sector jobs were created [1]. During the same period last year, there were 66,000 new jobs created. Higher cost of doing business from tariffs has frozen hiring. With a frozen job market, there’s less revenue coming in. NYC is a leading indicator for the rest of the country. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/nyregion/nyc-jobs.html

And yet the rent in NYC just seems to go up and up.

rental prices are driven by P/E redirecting funds to the purchase of housing stock, which they then use to jack up the rent. Fuedalism is returning by stealth.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#383

Post by watwut »

astrobe_ wrote: post #376
bongodongobob wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> It's not achievable in the USA because a very large chunk of our population is literally retarded. 70 mil voted for Trump for some reason. I am not an American citizen so I cannot feel offended by this sentence, but I think it doesn't help to call people stupid. What you describe looks like a failure of the education system, which have been defective for decades in the US, from what I've heard. This may very well t…

Measured by international tests, USA was somewhere in the middle of OECD. Not the top, not terrible.

What he describes is result of different value system, intentional radicalisation and propaganda. Education won't counteract it and especially not since above people are in charge of it.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#384

Post by Gigachad »

songqin wrote: post #329
Gigachad wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most global post offices are just suspending packages to the US because they don’t know what the price is or how to pay it.

this isn't true, tariffs are assessed within the US by the receiving firm, not on the sender's side. We run a business with a foreign supply chain and our suppliers have changed nothing, we just get an extra bill to pay to the government when our inventory arrives.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-26/australia-post-commer...

>"Specifically, the requirement for duties and taxes to be prepaid on all shipments prior to their arrival in the US,"

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#385

Post by californical »

atoav wrote: post #156
timr wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even assuming that there were no other federal, state or local YoY differences [1] that could explain this change (and that the numbers are right as presented in the first place), New York City private sector employment is nothing like most other parts of the US: it's the largest city in the US by a large margin, it has a concentration of employment in a few major industries (finance, fashion, publishing, software) t…

Yes, a tariff can be a good measure. But for that the tariffed goods need to be selected carefully and rationally und not whatever the heck the Trump administration is doing. For example you can tariff bananas all you like, that won't spark widespread banana production in a climate that can't grow them.

No but it could shift consumer demand a bit to favor apples, for example, which largely come from domestic sources.

Not arguing one way or another, but your reduction isn’t quite accurate with the affects tariffs can have

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#386

Post by KeplerBoy »

hunglee2 wrote: post #381

Clutching at straws but one silver lining from the accelerationist perspective is that the global economic damage of US Tariff War 2.0. will speed up the adoption of AI / automation. Payroll is one of the most expensive, high risk and illiquid commitments to the organisational budget, so the idea of replacing it with dial up / dial down Saas subscriptions will move from 'good idea' to 'business critical' The effect w…

Too bad most people are on a payroll and the economy relies on those people being able to have spare money to spend.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#387

Post by cbcoutinho »

songqin wrote: post #329
Gigachad wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most global post offices are just suspending packages to the US because they don’t know what the price is or how to pay it.

this isn't true, tariffs are assessed within the US by the receiving firm, not on the sender's side. We run a business with a foreign supply chain and our suppliers have changed nothing, we just get an extra bill to pay to the government when our inventory arrives.

This is related to the removal of 'de minimis' rule that exempts parcels under $800 to ship duty free. This has caused some European postal services to stop/delay shipping some packages to the US [0]. The Dutch postal service for instance has stopped shipping to the US [1]

[0]: https://apnews.com/article/us-tariffs-goods-services-suspens...

[1]: https://www.postnl.nl/campagnes/online-frankeren-vs/

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#388

Post by sethammons »

WalterBright wrote: post #124
thayne wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's because basic economic theory makes some really bad assumptions. It assumes everyone has the information they need, and sellers can instantaneously change prices in response to changes in demand or cost of production. Neither of which is true in the real world.

> It assumes everyone has the information they need This is incorrect. Lack of information is priced in as "risk".

This is satisfying similar to the ai response in Hyperion as (spoilers) the entire system collapses.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#389

Post by jimbob45 »

hippo22 wrote: post #110
sneak wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would make sense if there were a single labor market. There isn’t, so this simply increases prices (even for domestic goods, as raw materials are frequently imported). There is no meaningful path to restoring much of the US’s lost manufacturing capacity. The rent is too damn high, and the cost of goods is rising quickly as well. Labor is expensive and becoming moreso daily. Manufacturing in the US can never comp…

Low labor costs are not why goods are produced in China. That viewpoint is outdated. Goods are produced in China because they have the most capacity and expertise. Don’t believe me. Believe Tim Cook: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2wacXUrONUY

He’s giving that speech in China. It’s impossible to know if he’s glazing or not. Either way, I would want to hear him commit to building those factories in the US if education was not a factor. I suspect real estate costs, unions, OSHA, and US wages are bigger factors than he’s letting on. Still, I’m not going to fault the man for complimenting China while speaking to a Chinese audience.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#390

Post by sethammons »

apimade wrote: post #105
declan_roberts wrote: post #52

[flagged]

I just realised for the first time in my life I’ve decided to delete my comment/reply because I’m concerned with how it’ll be used. I will say this; different countries wield different powers at their disposal. It’s unfair how China conducts business, but other countries can be equally exploitative.

Trump is killing freedom of speech.

I don't understand how any supporter can claim to love our country.

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