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America’s incarceration rate is in decline

theatlantic.com

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Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#381

Post by jrflowers »

leptons wrote: post #301
Spivak wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would be a good theory if it was supported at all by data. There has been a decrease but if you squint it's a flat line. The best you can really say is that the availability of pornography is neutral.

I have seen the data that suggests strongly that pornography lowers rapes. You've put up no data to refute that, so until you do I will continue believing the data I saw. If you do put up some actual data to support your claims (instead of just saying "nuh uhh"), I'll review it and then provide my own.

Can you share that data

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#382

Post by thmsths »

spinner34f wrote: post #136
strict9 wrote: post #12

> Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey. Another factor which will soon impact this, if it isn't already, is the rapidly changing nature of youth. Fertility rates have been dropping since 200…

The flip-side of an aging society with declining fertility is that older people, with fewer children are likely to be less sympathetic to children, and you could see the incarceration rates increase, or remain steady, as less severe infractions are punished more harshly. We recently saw this play out in the Queensland, Australia, state election where the opposition party, which was pretty much out of ideas, ran a sca…

I am very conflicted on this. On one hand I absolutely despise that hating the children attitude and I believe we are reaping what we are sowing. On the other hand there are serial offenders that are not being dealt appropriately. My naive solution is to keep the current, more permissive system for first offenders and then treat repeat offenders as adults. I mean if you are a teen, succumb to peer pressure and do something stupid like stealing a car, I fully believe that we should not throw the book at you. We need to dispel you of the notion that this is not a big deal and that you will get away with it, while ensuring that we do not harm your future prospects.

But if being arrested, handcuffed and taken in front of a judge is not enough to make you understand that this kind of behavior will not be tolerated, and you do steal a car again a few weeks later, then yes, we will have to escalate instead of saying "nothing we can do, it's just a kid". Otherwise we are literally sending the message that they can act with impunity.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#383

Post by DiggyJohnson »

lo_zamoyski wrote: post #343
frollogaston wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, this is exactly something to discuss early. My wife and I were on the same page from earlier in dating about having kids in our 20s.

Absolutely. It serves as a filter, if people are being honest. It also highlights the bizarre dating culture and view of life we've adopted. This dating culture has produced a good deal of rotten fruit. The ultimate purpose of dating is to meet your future spouse. We're turned it into some kind of senseless sexual escapade, and this has poisoned the relations between men and women. It makes them exploitative and dehu…

This is a much more reasonable position than many will believe. I think writing like a 19th century nonfiction author probably contributes to that aha

Edit:

To be clear I appreciate this comment and agree with it in the large. It’s hard to talk about these things without being quickly dismissed in the current zeitgeist.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#384

Post by testing22321 »

casenmgreen wrote: post #25

Freakonomics argued that crime correlates to whether or not abortion is available. If it is not, crime rates are up, and by a lot. If it is, crime rates are down. When you flip from one to the other, takes about 15/20 years for the effect to show up. Rationale is that forcing parents to have their kids when they're not ready for them significantly increases delinquency in young adults. This is apparently the only pos…

It’s clearly very easy to correlate low crime with free healthcare, education, unemployment, social safety net.

Compare the US to every other OECD country.

Nobody outside the US would even waste their time on having the discussion it is so blaringly obvious, but those in the US suffering the effects will denounce it till the cows come home.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#385

Post by tsunamifury »

Workaccount2 wrote: post #367
bluGill wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the act of having a child is much more deliberate and the parents likely having more resources This is both good and bad. Having a child is very difficult, but it gets harder as you get older. You lack a lot of monitory resources as a teen or the early 20s, but you have a lot more energy, as you get older your body starts decaying you will lack energy. A kid had at 40 will still be depending on your when you are 55…

Lifestyle is key here. An older friend conveyed to me pretty much the exact same thing you are, that he cannot imagine having kids at 40 because you will not be able to keep up with them energy wise. You get old and your body really starts to give in. Alright Geoff, thanks, but you are 54 and do zero exercise, have a diet of eating out at fast food and fast casual restaurants, a body type that would be described as "…

This is ridiculous. I’m 40 and in moderately good physical condition (I can lift and run many miles).

I am perfectly capable of keeping up with my kids.

My 72 year old father who is also in good condition keeps up with my 3 year old son.

The difference I see between a reasonably fit 40 year old and not is the massive gap.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#386

Post by DiggyJohnson »

WarOnPrivacy wrote: post #212
999900000999 wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue here is this can lead people to pushing it till 40+. I was talking to a nice girl up until she mentioned still wanting kids in her late 40s. Maybe I’m old school, but telling someone you froze your eggs the same day you meet them is weird. Society itself is broken. You SHOULD be able to graduate high school and make enough to support yourself and a family with a bit of struggle. This rapidly transformed int…

> For myself , I wish I made this happen in my mid 20s. I had to move back home to take care of a family member (fck cancer) and I suffered various personal setbacks due to it. I hear ya. My spouse developed mental illness after sons 4,5 were born. A spouse can sabotage a lot of things when they set their mind to it - and their mind never stops. Not even at 3am. The first year was hard. The second was harder. After 5…

What was the nature of her illness and was it directly related to the kids? If you don’t mind me asking, of course. That sounds like a very challenging thing all the best

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#387

Post by tuna74 »

wredcoll wrote: post #241
999900000999 wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue here is this can lead people to pushing it till 40+. I was talking to a nice girl up until she mentioned still wanting kids in her late 40s. Maybe I’m old school, but telling someone you froze your eggs the same day you meet them is weird. Society itself is broken. You SHOULD be able to graduate high school and make enough to support yourself and a family with a bit of struggle. This rapidly transformed int…

> Society itself is broken. You SHOULD be able to graduate high school and make enough to support yourself and a family with a bit of struggle This has literally only been true for about 30 years out of the sum total of human history, would you like to guess when those 30 years happened to be? Obviously the answer is "1950s america". For the rest of human history, you needed something beyond the education you receive…

That was only true for 1950s USA if you were a white male with a pretty good job and a wife staying home taking care of the kids.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#388

Post by cooper_ganglia »

whoknowsidont wrote: post #377
cooper_ganglia wrote: post #374

[flagged]

Do you have any clear examples of this that demonstrate the consistency of the pattern you're describing?

Sure, a quick search unfortunately gives you result after result!

https://www.wsmv.com/2025/06/23/family-woman-murdered-nashvi...

https://nypost.com/2025/02/28/us-news/career-criminal-free-w...

https://www.fox26houston.com/news/the-judge-did-her-job-defe...

https://nypost.com/2025/02/22/us-news/nyc-career-criminal-ty...

https://nypost.com/2025/06/21/us-news/plucky-nyc-victim-94-v...

https://www.fox5ny.com/news/nyc-judges-violent-perps-report

https://nypost.com/2025/03/22/us-news/meet-wanda-licitra-nyc...

https://nypost.com/2025/04/24/us-news/hooligan-whose-alleged...

https://nypost.com/2025/06/25/us-news/serial-perv-who-tried-...

https://nypost.com/2025/01/07/us-news/nyc-sees-staggering-14...

https://nypost.com/2025/03/07/us-news/maniac-busted-for-slug...

https://nypost.com/2024/08/11/us-news/brute-charged-in-attac...

https://www.foxnews.com/us/blue-states-bail-laws-panned-poli...

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#389

Post by tsunamifury »

lo_zamoyski wrote: post #343
frollogaston wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, this is exactly something to discuss early. My wife and I were on the same page from earlier in dating about having kids in our 20s.

Absolutely. It serves as a filter, if people are being honest. It also highlights the bizarre dating culture and view of life we've adopted. This dating culture has produced a good deal of rotten fruit. The ultimate purpose of dating is to meet your future spouse. We're turned it into some kind of senseless sexual escapade, and this has poisoned the relations between men and women. It makes them exploitative and dehu…

You have far too much of an obsession with sex here and really need to stop and take a breath.

Dating culture is evolved to help you find a mate based on YOUR choices and capability not your parents or class level. This allows you to “trial” compatibility over shorter time and find better fits.

What you seem to be talking about is 'Online Hookup Culture' which is more of a hobby if we are being honest than a way of finding a mate. And ultimately probably STILL better when faced with a society increasingly not finding mates or having kids at all. So basically all of your thoughts are self-contradictory due to a bit of self righteousness here.

Please don’t let your hangups around sex (correct or not) become a world view. It’s not a healthy obsession.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#390

Post by tuna74 »

mrweasel wrote: post #282
arkey wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'd argue that the best time to get kids is as a university student. You get free daycare, the government doubles your stipend (and it's extended), your housing subsidy increases, you generally have more free time as a student... Where... where do you live? I'm all for having kids as soon as possible, but I was barely able to provide for just myself during university.

I'm in Denmark. You get around $1100 per month from the government as a university student, you then get around the same amount per child (not sure if a couple get half of that each). Still if you're two students, with a child, that's at least $3300 a month. That's not a lot of money, but there are also government loans you can get, and again, free daycare and subsidies for housing. It's not a get rich scheme, but it…

According to Google the the amount you get per child per month in Denmark is 1450-881 DKK (227-138 USD) depending on the age of the child.
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