Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout • Hacker News Board

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#381

Post by 8note » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:29 AM UTC

walterbell wrote: post #168

Centigonal wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As global GDP grows, it becomes increasingly burdensome for the United States to finance the provision of reserve assets and the defense umbrella I don't understand. US share of global GDP is around where it was in 1980, and in 1995[1]. Is Miran arguing that America's "exorbitant privilege" of being the source of the world's reserve currency, literally being able to buy goods from any country in the world with mone…

Is there any relationship between reserve currency, national security and power projection? https://apnews.com/article/shipbuilding-china-united-states-... > In only two decades, China has grown to be the dominant player in shipbuilding, claiming more than half of the world’s commercial shipbuilding market, while the U.S. share has fallen to just 0.1%, posing serious economic and national security challenges for the…

its kinda funny though, since US lack of shipbuilding is directly the result of protectionist law in the jones act

get rid of the jones act, and you get americans on boats again, rather than trucks

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#382

Post by f33d5173 » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:29 AM UTC

sebmellen wrote: post #366

cycomanic wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was bringing this up with a guy yesterday who was genuinely supporting the policies and somebody chimed in that they were not worried at all, because everyone wants to trade with the big boy in town. Trust is not important if they are afraid of you (I'm paraphrasing). Quite a different perspective, but it is consistent with an observation I made about a lot of US comments, people are quite happy for their country/g…

Devil’s advocate: If you (the US) massively subsidize the world order through your financial markets, military defense, and foreign aid, it’s only fair that you get to take advantage of your position. Historically, the US has done this at the expense of its working class. Now there is a populist feeling that we are owed a long due “payback” for our generosity. The Bernie/AOC left believe the payback is owed by our el…

The US has always been incredibly mercenary with their investment. If there was a way of squeezing more blood from the stone a previous president would have done it. You learned about economic policy yesterday. Now you think that picking tariffs by throwing darts can do better than seasoned economic expert trying to maximize benefit to the US. It's just laughable.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#383

Post by selimthegrim » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:29 AM UTC

JackYoustra wrote: post #215

api wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m from Southern Ohio which was not hit as hard, but I know the attitude well. I call it “rust belt rage.” I remember during the first Trump election hearing quotes like “I hope he does as much damage as possible” and “I can’t throw a bomb into the White House but I can throw a Trump.” Lots more like that. The attitude in that region of the country is absolute seething rage. A lot of people from Northern Ohio, Weste…

> Imagine what the vibes would be on the West Coast if there was a huge set of policy changes that decimated and liquidated the high tech industries We had large inflation caused by Joe Biden's industrial revival acts (spurring a massive increase in factory construction (see https://home.treasury.gov/news/featured-stories/unpacking-th... ) that led to interest rate rises and a TON of tech layoffs! People on this foru…

Originally the Intel Ohio One fab was being lobbied for by some housewife in Lorain. It went to New Albany because that part of Northern Ohio couldn't get its act together in contiguous land acquisition.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#384

Post by walterbell » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:29 AM UTC

graeme wrote: post #315

walterbell wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.ft.com/content/96bc1b74-14dd-47ab-8bbd-1add97a2a... > both leaders claim their approaches have helped them this week avoid what Trump calls “liberation day” tariffs.. Mexican officials on Thursday said the strategy had borne fruit and they would focus on getting an even better deal. Economy minister Marcelo Ebrard said: “It's a great achievement, I’d say, from the point of view of where we started not lon…

You've completely ignored what I wrote. The formula the white house used to set tariffs would result in lower tariffs for Canada and Mexico. If both countries were included in the formula Trump would have to cut announced tariffs on both countries. Do you dispute this? It's trivial to calculate.

You're disagreeing with statements by the President of Mexico, describing the result of ongoing negotiations?

Canada and Mexico share a physical border with USA, which has already resulted in unique (i.e. unrelated to the math of 180+ other countries which don't physically border USA) tariffs tailored to border security goals, under national security emergency directives which overrode USMCA.

USMCA has been historically gamed by international manufacturers seeking more favorable terms for products destined to the US market. As stated by the leadership of both Mexico and Canada, USMCA will need to be renegotiated to address issues identified by all three parties, which would then reduce the need to invoke the emergency-power tariffs that have been deployed against 180+ countries.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#385

Post by Jtsummers » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:29 AM UTC

ekianjo wrote: post #308

Jtsummers wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US wasn't even in a crisis until 2025. We weren't in a stellar position (high deficits and debt, low unemployment but high underemployment). It was all recoverable before Trump started this trade war and doing things like cutting departments that actually brought in revenue.

> was all recoverable The debt was never recoverable

Well, I disagree but the current policies guarantee it's not recoverable so a debate would mostly be around hypotheticals. We're reducing revenue but not spending (or not enough to offset the reduction in revenue so the deficit will rise), so the debt will only continue to rise at an increasing rate.

Ironically, Trump has the record for the highest deficit ever in US history. He's on track to beat it though and with a reasonably strong economy when he took office (again, not an ideal economy, underemployment is a major issue, but not a weak economy by any stretch).

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#386

Post by brookst » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:30 AM UTC

toddmorey wrote: post #74

lreeves wrote: post #10

You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…

Very well put. Alliances take years to build but can be broken in just days. I'm tempted to think (hope? dream?) that the markets and trade will rebound if all this chaos makes American politics swing back towards an interest in global stability, but I think anyone partnering with the US would do so VERY carefully and right now the entire world is plotting how to remove US dependencies.

To the extent markets recover it will be because there’s confidence that exposure to bizarre and unpredictable behavior from the US has been reduced.

EU / China trade pacts, China / California, Mexico / EU. People have to patch around the mistaken over-reliance on sanity from the US. It’ll happen, not sure if it’ll take a few weeks or a few years though.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#387

Post by 8note » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:30 AM UTC

hattmall wrote: post #203

Centigonal wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As global GDP grows, it becomes increasingly burdensome for the United States to finance the provision of reserve assets and the defense umbrella I don't understand. US share of global GDP is around where it was in 1980, and in 1995[1]. Is Miran arguing that America's "exorbitant privilege" of being the source of the world's reserve currency, literally being able to buy goods from any country in the world with mone…

Yes, that's exactly what a liability is! US currency is an IOU. The more of it out in the world the less value there is in America's domestic assets.

i generally cannot go to the US government with a dollar to withdraw its worth in gold.

US debt is an IOU, but USD is just an object that i can barter with

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#388

Post by sebmellen » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:31 AM UTC

f33d5173 wrote: post #382

sebmellen wrote: post #366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Devil’s advocate: If you (the US) massively subsidize the world order through your financial markets, military defense, and foreign aid, it’s only fair that you get to take advantage of your position. Historically, the US has done this at the expense of its working class. Now there is a populist feeling that we are owed a long due “payback” for our generosity. The Bernie/AOC left believe the payback is owed by our el…

The US has always been incredibly mercenary with their investment. If there was a way of squeezing more blood from the stone a previous president would have done it. You learned about economic policy yesterday. Now you think that picking tariffs by throwing darts can do better than seasoned economic expert trying to maximize benefit to the US. It's just laughable.

Did I ever defend a particular industrial policy? No. You misread my comment.

My comment was intended to give the GP poster insight into the mindset of Americans who revel in the “bullying” behavior they described.

But one point of inquiry — how are foreign aid programs like USAID mercenary? Even if they are CIA fronts, it’s hard to argue that they are in any way economically extractive.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#389

Post by anigbrowl » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:31 AM UTC

8note wrote: post #356

anigbrowl wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe, but vetoes are politically very expensive. Even if he threatens to veto, Congress should still do it. Not doing obvious things because they might run into opposition/problems is a recipe for more and worse of the same.

theres 0 actual political cost to them. trump doesnt need anything from congress, and probably wouldnt change tariff policy even after said law is passed in a veto-proof way

Doing nothing and just watching how how dictatorship pans out is also an option, sure.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#390

Post by Jtsummers » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:32 AM UTC

8note wrote: post #363

Jtsummers wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They could be unconstitutional. The ability of Congress to delegate its authority to the President does have limits. If companies (the ones in a financial position to do this) sued, they'd have standing and could make their case. Whether it's successful or not would take a while to find out, and this is an instance where judges would likely leave the tariffs in place until the suit was settled in a court (before appe…

they could be unconstitutional, but does that matter? the executive gets to enforce whatever it wants however it wants. nobody has to listen to congress or the courts when the executive is all aligned on what theyre gonna do

No, if it were ruled unconstitutional and the President continued to enforce the policies then Congress would be justified in impeaching and removing the President. This is unlikely to actually happen with the current Congress, however.

Could the President remain in office after an impeachment? Ask again in 2-3 years, but today, no. He'd be removed, no federal employee (civilian or military) would continue to take orders from him except perhaps his Cabinet and the DOGE boys. They all swear an oath to the Constitution, not to the man. In 2-3 years, though, could be a different culture.