Live data from Hacker News

Modern-Day Oracles or Bullshit Machines? How to thrive in a ChatGPT world

thebullshitmachines.com

381–390 of 652 posts

Re: Modern-Day Oracles or Bullshit Machines? How to thrive in a ChatGPT world

#381
post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I mean just try it yourself with o1, go as deep as you like asking how it arrived at a conclusion I don't mean to disagree overall, but on this point the LLM can post-facto rationalize its output but it has no introspection and has absolutely no idea why it made a given bit of output (except in so far as it was a result of COT which it could reiterate to you). The set of weights being activated could be nearly disj…

I doubt people are very accurate at knowing why they made the choices they did. If you want them to recite a chain of reasoning they can but that is kind of far from most decision making most people do.

I agree people aren't great at this either and my post said as much.

However we're familiar with the human limits of this and LLMs are currently much worse.

This is particularly relevant because someone suffering from the mistaken belief that LLM's could explain their reasoning might go on to attempt to use that to justify the misapplication of an LLM.

E.g. fine tune some LLM using resume examples so that it almost always rejects Green-skinned people, but approve the LLMs use in hiring decisions because it is insistent that it would never base a decision on someone's skin color. Humans can lie about their biases of course, but a human at least has some experience with themselves while a LLM usually has no experience observing themself except for the output visible in their current window.

Re: Modern-Day Oracles or Bullshit Machines? How to thrive in a ChatGPT world

#382
post #339
post #288

Not sure why everyone rates this. It’s full of very confidently made statements like “the AI has no ground truth” (obviously it does, it has ingested every paper ever), it “can’t reason logically” which seems like a stretch if you ever read the CoT of a frontier reasoning model and “can’t explain how they arrived at conclusions” where - I mean just try it yourself with o1, go as deep as you like asking how it arrived…

> I mean just try it yourself with o1, go as deep as you like asking how it arrived at a conclusion I don't mean to disagree overall, but on this point the LLM can post-facto rationalize its output but it has no introspection and has absolutely no idea why it made a given bit of output (except in so far as it was a result of COT which it could reiterate to you). The set of weights being activated could be nearly disj…

I also should have added that the ability to self explain when COT was in use only goes as deep as the COT, as soon as you probe deeper such that the content of the COT requires explanation the LLM is back in the realm of purely making stuff up again.

A non-hallucinated answer could only recount the COT and beyond that it would only be able to answer "Instinct."-- sure the LLM's response has reasoning hidden inside it, but that reasoning is completely inaccessible to the LLM.

Re: Modern-Day Oracles or Bullshit Machines? How to thrive in a ChatGPT world

#383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes because it isn't an arbitrary distinction. My good old TI-83 can do calculations that I can't even do in my head but unlike me it isn't reasoning about them, that's actually why it's able to do them so fast, and it has some pretty big implications about what it can't do. If you want to understand where a systems limitations are you need to understand not just what it does but how it does it, I feel like we need t…

An LLM’s mechanics are algorithmically much closer to the human brain (which the LLM is modeled on) than a TI-83, a CPU, or any other Turing machine. Which is why, like the brain, it can solve problems that no individual Turing machine can. Are you sure you aren’t just defining reasoning as something only a human can do?

My prior is reasoning is a conscious activity. There is a first person perspective. LLMs are so far removed mechanically from brains the idea they reason is not even remotely worth considering. Modeling neurons can be done with a series of pipes and flowing water, and that is not expected to give arise to consciousness either. Nor are nuerons and synapses likely to be sufficient for consciousness.

You know how we insert ourselves into the process of coming up with a delicious recipe? That first person perspective might be also necessary for reasoning. No computer knows the taste of mint, it must be given parameters about it. So if a computer comes up with a recipe with mint, we know it wasn’t via tasting anything ever.

A calculator doesn’t reason. A facsimile of something we have no idea about its role in consciousness has the same outlook as the calculator.

Re: Modern-Day Oracles or Bullshit Machines? How to thrive in a ChatGPT world

#384
post #383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An LLM’s mechanics are algorithmically much closer to the human brain (which the LLM is modeled on) than a TI-83, a CPU, or any other Turing machine. Which is why, like the brain, it can solve problems that no individual Turing machine can. Are you sure you aren’t just defining reasoning as something only a human can do?

My prior is reasoning is a conscious activity. There is a first person perspective. LLMs are so far removed mechanically from brains the idea they reason is not even remotely worth considering. Modeling neurons can be done with a series of pipes and flowing water, and that is not expected to give arise to consciousness either. Nor are nuerons and synapses likely to be sufficient for consciousness. You know how we ins…

Are we then conferring some kind of supernatural or religious properties to the brain’s particular implementation of neurons?

If not, then why shouldn’t differently constructed but algorithmically similar systems be able to produce similar phenomena?

Re: Modern-Day Oracles or Bullshit Machines? How to thrive in a ChatGPT world

#385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it's mimicry of reason is indistinguishable from real reasoning, how is it not reasoning? Ultimately, an LLM models language and the process behind it's creation to some degree of accuracy or another. If that model includes a way to approximate the act of reasoning, then it is reasoning to some extent. The extent I am happy to agree is open for discussion, but that reasoning is taking place at all is a little hard…

No, it is distinguishable from real reasoning. Real reasoning, while flawed in various ways, goes through personal experience of the evaluator. LLMs don't have that capability at all. They're just sifting though tokens and associate statistical parameters to it with no skin in the game so to speak.

LLM's have personal option by virtue of the fact they make statements of things they understand to the extent their training data allows. Their training data is not perfect, and in addition, through random chance the LLM will latch onto specific topics as a function of weight initialization and training data order.

This would form a filter not unlike, yet distinct from, our understanding of personal experience.

you could make the exact same argument against humans, we just learn to make sounds that elicit favourable responses. Besides, they have plenty "skin in the game", about the same as you or I.

Re: Modern-Day Oracles or Bullshit Machines? How to thrive in a ChatGPT world

#386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You say this but I have a ton of experience that "can lead" and "there is" come with a gigantic pile of caveats to the extent that they appear to be more false than true. Or they're technically true but practically meaningless. The world has been utterly awash in mass-perpetuated misinformation for at least all of recorded history without any real ability to stem the onslaught. This is not a modern problem just becau…

This is a sidestep imo. People _can_ be held accountable, though they will not always be. Machines add a layer of complexity - money is lost or a life is lost because AI made the call, who bears the burden? Machines _can't_ be held accountable.

I hear you, but I think it becomes less of a sidestep when "they will not always be" is in practice "they basically never are".

And I'm not sure that most interactions even _can_ be held to account. When someone, say, hallucinates the intended meaning of something written ambiguously that has no unambiguous meaning, and I point out the hallucinatedness of their assumed meaning when what was written was definitively ambiguous, we've all just said words. There's no, like, penalty for anyone.

And people do say things ambiguously and other people do hallucinate the supposed meaning literally all the time. If there were any meaningful accountability for hallucinations, it wouldn't happen nearly as often as it does.

Re: Modern-Day Oracles or Bullshit Machines? How to thrive in a ChatGPT world

#387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is the question that the greeks wrestled with over 2000 years ago. at the time there were the sophists (modern llm equivalents) that could speak persuasively like a politician. over time this question has been debated by philosophers, scientists, and anyone who wanted to have better cognition in general.

So how can you claim what an LLM is doing if we cannot define it regardless?

Because we know what LLM's do. We know how they produce output. It's just good enough at mimicking human text/speech that people are mystified and stupified by it. But I disagree that "reasoning" is so poorly defined that we're unable to say an LLM doesn't do it. It doesn't need to be a perfect or complete definition. Where there is fuzziness and uncertainty is with humans. We still don't really know how the human brain works, how human consciousness and cognition works. But we can pretty confidently say that an LLM does not reason or think.

Now if it quacks like a duck in 95% of cases, who cares if it's not really a duck? But Google still claims that water isn't frozen at 32 degrees Fahrenheit, so I don't think we're there yet.

Re: Modern-Day Oracles or Bullshit Machines? How to thrive in a ChatGPT world

#388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes because it isn't an arbitrary distinction. My good old TI-83 can do calculations that I can't even do in my head but unlike me it isn't reasoning about them, that's actually why it's able to do them so fast, and it has some pretty big implications about what it can't do. If you want to understand where a systems limitations are you need to understand not just what it does but how it does it, I feel like we need t…

An LLM’s mechanics are algorithmically much closer to the human brain (which the LLM is modeled on) than a TI-83, a CPU, or any other Turing machine. Which is why, like the brain, it can solve problems that no individual Turing machine can. Are you sure you aren’t just defining reasoning as something only a human can do?

[deleted]

Re: Modern-Day Oracles or Bullshit Machines? How to thrive in a ChatGPT world

#389
post #383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An LLM’s mechanics are algorithmically much closer to the human brain (which the LLM is modeled on) than a TI-83, a CPU, or any other Turing machine. Which is why, like the brain, it can solve problems that no individual Turing machine can. Are you sure you aren’t just defining reasoning as something only a human can do?

My prior is reasoning is a conscious activity. There is a first person perspective. LLMs are so far removed mechanically from brains the idea they reason is not even remotely worth considering. Modeling neurons can be done with a series of pipes and flowing water, and that is not expected to give arise to consciousness either. Nor are nuerons and synapses likely to be sufficient for consciousness. You know how we ins…

I think you'd benefit from reading Helen Keller's autobigoraphy "the world i live in", you might reach the same conclusions I did, this being that perhaps conciousness is flavoured by our unique way of experiencing our world, but not strictly neccesary for conciousness of some kind or another to form. I beleive conciousness to be a tool a sufficently complex neural network will develop in order for it to achieve whatever objective it has been given to optimize for.

Re: Modern-Day Oracles or Bullshit Machines? How to thrive in a ChatGPT world

#390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Bullshit” actually means something: > In philosophy and psychology of cognition, the term "bullshit" is sometimes used to specifically refer to statements produced without particular concern for truth, clarity, or meaning, distinguishing "bullshit" from a deliberate, manipulative lie intended to subvert the truth. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshit It’s really an ideal term to describe what LLMs do.

> It’s really an ideal term to describe what LLMs do. Only when you relax it to the point it also describes what most people do. To be specific: if by "truth" you mean objective, verifiable truth, and by "caring about truth" you mean caring about objective, empirically verifiable evidence, then by far most people are mostly only ever trying to be persuasive.

I hope you don't actually mean that. It's a cynical, sad, and - quite frankly - false thing to believe.
Post reply on HN