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The size of BYD's factory

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Re: The size of BYD's factory

#381

Post by Lanolderen »

Sponge5 wrote: post #328
harrall wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe outsourcing can be a symptom of not innovating anymore. Imagine having to contract out every prototype to a metal working shop — it slows down your ability to iterate because you can’t just go downstairs and try it . But once you have a design set in stone, outsourcing is cheaper than doing it in-house. These companies specialize in producing parts with economies of scale. But if you do it for too long, you…

> But once you have a design set in stone, outsourcing is cheaper than doing it in-house. These companies specialize in producing parts with economies of scale. Except you need to ship the parts to your factory and still employ QA people who must check whether you got what you paid for.. If the supplier has a bad defect ratio, you must order more parts. It's not as cut-and-dry as you think. Every time your assembly-l…

Don't the fines for halting a line cover the cost of the halt for the manufacturer?

I'm currently working at a supplier for some companies in mostly the automotive sector and the line halt fines per second seem to all be in the couple grand range so I always assumed it should be enough to cover the halt.

Though the QA part is real. There's so much theatre in tricking clients into believing their QA measurements are wrong when something happens it's kinda funny.

Re: The size of BYD's factory

#382

Post by martinpw »

est wrote: post #295
Animats wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There were many terrible electric cars out of China for years. Every province had its own little EV manufacturers. China's car industry is less concentrated than the US, but the big players are winning. BYD is only the 9th largest carmaker in China. SAIC, Changan, and Geeley are the top 3. SAIC and Changan are state-owned, but Geeley is private, as is BYD. SAIC makes about 5 million vehicles a year. General Motors, o…

> BYD is only the 9th largest carmaker in China. SAIC, Changan, and Geeley are the top 3 Protip: when you calc Chinese numbers, be sure to lookup the latest data. 1 year or 2 means landslide difference. SAIC sales dropped > 11% and profit down by 27% in the first two quaters 2024. Think about that for a second.

BYD sold over 500k cars last month:

https://cnevpost.com/2024/11/01/byd-sales-oct-2024/

That's up over 60% year on year. If they are not already the largest carmaker in China they will be very soon.

Re: The size of BYD's factory

#383

Post by codedokode »

Dalewyn wrote: post #222
hnthrowaway0328 wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't a tariff drive up prices? (or at least intended for that)

Tariffs are a surcharge on imports added and demanded by the government, paid by the people or entities importing. As an example, if an American buys a Chinese coffee maker priced at $100 and there is a 50% tariff, there is a $50 tariff that is paid by the importing American to the American government. The total cost to the importing American is $150. Now, if this price is equal to or higher than an American coffee m…

> As another example, if Tesla sells Model 3s for $50,000 and BYD comes in with a similar spec car priced at $25,000, then putting a 100% tariff on it will drive BYD's effective price up to $50,000 allowing Tesla to compete without undercutting or outright selling at a loss.

Doesn't that mean that American will have to pay $50 000 for a car that is worth $25 000? While people in other countries will be able to buy cars cheaper, buy more of them and maybe it somehow improves their life quality.

Re: The size of BYD's factory

#384

Post by martinpw »

bdangubic wrote: post #116
tokioyoyo wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This can't be a serious take, right? Chinese consumers don't expect much less when it comes to maintenance and repair. And given their 3M+/year vehicle production output, they're not a small player.

reach out to countries that sell these cars, find people on social media and/or if you have them in real life or travel… these cars are absolute garbage

I got a chance to ride in several Chinese EVs recently and was incredibly impressed. They looked great, were comfortable to ride in and felt well made. And the drivers all seemed very happy with them. I would definitely consider buying one if they were available in my country.

Re: The size of BYD's factory

#385

Post by pg314 »

robocat wrote: post #147
pg314 wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It is outrageously expensive. Quite the opposite. > Can you point me to a report that has a cost/benefit analysis of adding bike lanes for a city? A city that isn't "ideal" for cyclists... https://www.benelux.int/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Report_Cy...

The paper suggests biking only 118 days per year. The car ownership costs are not "saved" - the projected savings are wrong. Ownership car costs are 0.167/km and savings by riding a bicycle are 0.349/km. Two ignored real costs of bicycling are lack of optionality (planning ahead for weather changes, locked into transport mode) and carrying capacity (groceries, children, sports equipment, etcetera). And I'd like to se…

> The paper suggests biking only 118 days per year. The car ownership costs are not "saved" - the projected savings are wrong.

Were does it suggests that? The number 118 doesn't appear anywhere in that document.

> Ownership car costs are 0.167/km and savings by riding a bicycle are 0.349/km.

Where do you get these numbers from?

> carrying capacity (groceries, children, sports equipment, etcetera)

I do all grocery shopping for a family of four with a cargo bike. I pick up and drop off children in the cargo bike. You can think up objections all day if you want, but that doesn't change the fact that some people succeed in living car-free.

Nobody is forcing you to take a bicycle. Even if you personally don't like cycling, you should still encourage others to: every cyclist you see riding around is one less car stuck in traffic with you.

> And I'd like to see other costs of cycling (wet weather gear, helmets, locks) included.

Then you're in luck. On page 24, they include a budget of 117 EUR for gear and accessories.

Re: The size of BYD's factory

#386

Post by mike_hearn »

matthewdgreen wrote: post #273
throwawaymaths wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> our best chance to avoid catastrophic outcomes from climate change The US and EU are long off-peak carbon emissions (emissions even decreased during the Trump administration I, even using a trendline ignoring COVID). The biggest emitter right now is China, and it's emissions are growing not shrinking, and a considerable amount of that (including 90% of the worlds new coal plants) goes to projects like this.

China is building more renewable energy than the rest of the world combined. At this point there is no “let’s just reduce our emissions by 30% or so and hope things work out” plan that’s compatible with stopping worst-case outcomes, there is only a “let’s replace every single energy and fuel source with non-emitting ones on a ridiculously short timescale” plan. Insofar as we have a chance of doing that, it’s because…

China's emissions are continuing to climb sharply:

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co2?country=CHN~USA~IND...

The New Scientist article is terribly misleading. It suggests China's emissions have peaked because of a few months of reported stable numbers. What they don't tell you is that such periods have happened many times before. Between 2014-2016 Chinese emissions were stable or even fell slightly, according to their not very reliable data. Then it started climbing strongly again, even as US emissions dropped by a billion tonnes/year between 2008-2023.

So there's no evidence China is turning anything around or is on track to decline. You can't extrapolate a few months out to decades in the future, and the New Scientist should know that.

Re: The size of BYD's factory

#387

Post by matthewdgreen »

buran77 wrote: post #340
tomcam wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course we can motivate ourselves. But they're acting like we did in the 1800s through the mid 1900s. They just build anywhere no matter what. They have no interest in dealing with environmental concerns. The officially released pollution levels in China are mind-boggling and they still do not represent how bad it really is. You think US manufacturers wouldn't be delighted to just buy a few hundred acres land and s…

> Conforming to government regulations over here is stifling for a 100-house development in Arkansas, but it's almost impossible in California, Illinois, or New York. Now imagine what it's like to build a huge factory. It is nearly impossible to get permission, and inspections, endangered wildlife concerns, waste removal, etc. handled in under 5-10 years Reading this (and I completely agree, it's even worse in Europe…

The flipside of this argument is that it enables Chinese industrial interests to operate on strategies with 10+ year time scales, whereas Western markets seem to focus on the next few quarters. This is probably very efficient for some businesses, but not for big industrial corporations with long development timelines.

Re: The size of BYD's factory

#388

Post by matthewdgreen »

mike_hearn wrote: post #386
matthewdgreen wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is building more renewable energy than the rest of the world combined. At this point there is no “let’s just reduce our emissions by 30% or so and hope things work out” plan that’s compatible with stopping worst-case outcomes, there is only a “let’s replace every single energy and fuel source with non-emitting ones on a ridiculously short timescale” plan. Insofar as we have a chance of doing that, it’s because…

China's emissions are continuing to climb sharply: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co2?country=CHN~USA~IND... The New Scientist article is terribly misleading. It suggests China's emissions have peaked because of a few months of reported stable numbers. What they don't tell you is that such periods have happened many times before. Between 2014-2016 Chinese emissions were stable or even fell slightly, according t…

The analysis in New Scientist isn't based historical trends. It's a causal analysis based on the rapid deployment of new low-carbon generation on China's grid, which is being deployed at rates higher than expected demand. Of course you could be right -- maybe forward demand will be much higher than anticipated, or maybe all of those solar panels will turn out not to be plugged in or something. But you need to make a stronger argument for this than one that just casually glances at a historical time series.

Re: The size of BYD's factory

#389

Post by foobarian »

jpgvm wrote: post #337
Yeul wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Education has always been important in Chinese culture.

You could say it's central to their culture. Sort of goes for most Asian cultures, the education of children is something Asian parents will sacrifice greatly for.

Curious that education is valued so much, but then there are cycles of uprisings where educated people are targeted (Cambodia, Chairman Mao, ..)

Re: The size of BYD's factory

#390

Post by triceratops »

nradov wrote: post #260
Aeolun wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kinda, but we’re not really in a position to blame them right? To some extend, sure, but that’s easy to say when you’ve already got yours.

What does blame have to do with anything? Emissions are emissions.

Exactly: emissions are emissions. Reducing our own is just as good as other people reducing theirs. Plus then we can credibly badger others about their emissions, show them how to do it, and impose tariffs and sanctions when they don't.
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