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Facebook acquires Instagram

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Re: Facebook acquires Instagram

#381
post #351
post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm more convinced that we're in a 2nd bubble now more than ever. I agree. So far I've mostly dismissed talk of "the next bubble", but this pretty much solidifies it. Of course no one knows when the bubble will burst, so I guess investors are making as much money as they can before it inevitably does burst. It's a classic case of the "greater fool theory" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory

If this acquisition goes bad, Facebook goes from being worth 100 billion dollars to being worth 99 billion dollars. People don't lose their savings or retirement accounts. To me this just confirms that people who talk about bubbles now weren't here for the last real tech bubble.

FaceBook is only worth 100b on paper. It's not worth close to that. The reason this is absolutely a bubble is because you have one paper tiger buying another paper tiger with virtual paper.

This is no different than the real estate cycle in L.A. or South Florida a few years ago, when people would buy and sell condos based on market potential multiple times before the condo was even finished. It all works until someone down the line tries to cash in. It will work for FaceBook and Goldman Sachs, but a whole lot of consumer investors are going to get AOL'd in the long run.

Re: Facebook acquires Instagram

#382
Smart move by Facebook. If Google had bought Instagram instead and integrated with G+, things would have gotten interesting. Wouldn't be surprised if there was a bidding war that pushed the price this high. Reminds me of the recent Firefox deal.

Re: Facebook acquires Instagram

#383

This is very reminiscent of Google/YouTube circa 2006. When Google bought YT it was a small team of people and a pretty nascent product that people really loved, and the usage numbers were out of control. They left the product mostly untouched and let it grow on its own. Though there was major criticism at the time, it is one of the best tech acquisitions of the past decade.

Have you completely forgotten about Android? Do those millions count for nothing?

To compare it with YouTube is a massive overstatement. YouTube still has ~65% market share. InstaGram didn't even have an app for Android until a week back. How is that even remotely close to YT's domination of the video space?

Re: Facebook acquires Instagram

#384
post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, if every dollar has one chance to multiply and you take one tenth of the fund and immediately double it at the beginning of its lifetime, that is an outstanding outcome. Just because you can't reinvest the money in that fund does not mean it is lost, it is simply paid out to investors right away. Anybody who has taken a finance course knows the simple principle that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar to…

> Again, once you have doubled your money and gotten it back, you can invest it anywhere you like, including the same companies you may have before. But now you have twice as much money. Again, that's exactly wrong. As far as the fund is concerned, that money's gone. Let me help you understand with this link: http://www.danshapiro.com/blog/2010/08/vc-insanity-economics... Pay special attention to the section entitled…

Exactly. The money is gone "as far as the fund is concerned." But that money is no more gone than it is when I sell stock and convert it to cash. A fund not recognizing money does not mean that that money ceases to exist.

Re: Facebook acquires Instagram

#385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But then Instagram would still exist as an alternative social network for sharing photo's, outside of Facebook's control.

The assertion is that, for a billion dollars, Facebook should be able to create a significantly better app and market it better (or 'at all') than Instagram do. Facebook have got 721m users and all the data they need to constitute incredible market research. In twelve months if Facebook couldn't build an app which is competitive to Instagram, and get it installed with ~5.5% of their user-base, I'd be really fucking w…

you nailed it

Re: Facebook acquires Instagram

#386
The best argument I've seen for justifying this is as a way for Facebook to neutralize one potential medium-term strategic threat. That said, they still probably overpaid. Who knows how much of an element of behind-the-scenes investor favors-calling-in-favors went on as well. The whole indirect "Let's get into Facebook, pre-IPO" angle, which also sounds plausible.

Re: Facebook acquires Instagram

#387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It isn't the photo service: Facebook. Flickr. Picasa. Imageshack. Twitpic. Imgur... To name a few. Instagram doesn't have more users than Facebook. Hell, it doesn't even have more users than Flickr (51m) or Photobucket (50m). Instagram is a small part of the web photo ecosystem. It's a very peculiar play by Facebook, and not at all comparable to Google & YouTube other than the fact that Google acquired YouTube, and F…

sbarre has it right. You missed this part: "Instagram is the main mobile photo app." Damn reading comprehension. ;) To go a step further, consider: Flickr is available on every device (computer or phone) with an internet connection . Instagram was iOS-exclusive until a week or two ago, and yet it managed to reach sixty percent of Flickr's user base size. That's astounding.

I was addressing the part where it said "it's the photo app". It isn't "the" photo app. You can make the case that it's the most widely used mobile photo app after Facebook. But that != $1bn valuation or YouTube-like status.

Re: Facebook acquires Instagram

#388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The assertion is that, for a billion dollars, Facebook should be able to create a significantly better app and market it better (or 'at all') than Instagram do. Facebook have got 721m users and all the data they need to constitute incredible market research. In twelve months if Facebook couldn't build an app which is competitive to Instagram, and get it installed with ~5.5% of their user-base, I'd be really fucking w…

you nailed it

Thanks. Incidentally your startup is in a spookily similar field to mine. Email me? mistergeorgespencer at google's email solution dot com.

Re: Facebook acquires Instagram

#389
post #185
post #10

I had been wondering how a product like Instagram would ever make money. Now we'll never find out. I guess traction really does trump all other business metrics.

It's beginning to remind me of the late 90's where the only thing that mattered was number of "eyeballs" on your site, sound business plans/profits be damned.

The difference being that the burn rate of these companies is minuscule compared to what was going on the late 90s. They built a 30 million user social network with 5 engineers. This changes the dynamic tremendously.

Re: Facebook acquires Instagram

#390
post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

YouTube is a content paradise though. There's tons of value there and you can sell ads against it or even charge for premium services. Where's the money in Instagram? The content is practically worthless and their only real value is in their userbase. Even though I use the Instagram client, most of the time I see photos, they come through Twitter. So that also reinforces for me that any value is in the users and not…

> I'm more convinced that we're in a 2nd bubble now more than ever. I agree. So far I've mostly dismissed talk of "the next bubble", but this pretty much solidifies it. Of course no one knows when the bubble will burst, so I guess investors are making as much money as they can before it inevitably does burst. It's a classic case of the "greater fool theory" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory

And it helps to ignite bubble mania for the Facebook IPO. I wonder how much the added hype will boost the issue price -- it could help to discount the $1 billion FB paid.
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