Carmack seems extremely lucid about his position in the field and the current nature of the field in general. While rogue scientists don't have great odds, Carmack is definitely doing important research studying off-mainstream subjects.
Carmack is a beast, the path he's pursuing might not yield the best results, but I'm pretty sure he's the guy to make the best use of the hardware.
I wouldn't be surprised if his solution is orders of magnitude more performant than what the competition is doing.
In what fairlyland do you live in that the AGI invented, created, owned, run, etc by the ownership class poses any threat to said ownership class? AI is absolutely not our Ally
I think you misunderstood me
>one could imagine that AI allows to replace capitalism by something else
I was replying to this specific concept. There will never be a chance to improve the non-owner class's bargain after Capitalist owned AGI exists.
Let me correct my sentence: there's a blind belief that _technological_ progress automatically equates to better life conditions. And to clarify: I'm not saying "all technology is bad", but rather "not all technological progress is automatically good for humanity". As an example, living conditions of hunter-gatherers were way, way better than living conditions of the first people in cities, and I'd argue, depending o…
living conditions of hunter-gatherers were way, way better than living conditions of the first people in cities Why do you think so?
Historians agree (based for example on studying human remains) that they were much healthier, amongst other things. Check out the book "Against the Grain" for example.
Came here to say the same thing, but a few off the top of my head - attention is all you need - image is worth 16x16 words (vit) - openai clip - transformer XL - memorizing transformers / retro - language models are few shot learners (gpt) A few newer papers - recurrent block wise transformers - mobilevit (conv + transformer) - star (self taught transformer)
I keep getting CXOs asking for an ELI5 (or ELI45 for that matter) of how Transformers, LLMs, and Diffusion Models work. Any suggestions for a non-technical audience (paid items are fine, we can purchase).
This is quite a gentle introduction to Diffusion models, from the YouTube channel Computerphile.
Carmack is clearly a brilliant guy, but it feels like he's fallen into the trap of overfitting on his previous successes and believing they generalise into other domains. No doubt his experience and innovations in computer graphics gives him a good insight into problems in vision, etc. but I don't see anything particularly original or orthogonal in what he's saying with regards to "general AI".
The experts in the field say we need a philosophical breakthrough. Isn't everyone else inexperienced in this regard? https://aeon.co/essays/how-close-are-we-to-creating-artifici...
> David Deutschis a physicist at the University of Oxford and a fellow of the Royal Society.
Yeah sounded weird to me too, I don’t see why artificial intelligence would get deployed in human size units most of the time. The AWS bill won’t be for 5 Amys, and I don’t think people will “dial up” to order them
> I don’t see why artificial intelligence would get deployed in human size units Probably because it would be easier for humans (managers) to make sense of it. If you ask someone how many people would get this particular job done, they could probably guesstimate (and it'll be wrong), but if you ask them how many "AI Compute Units" they need, they'll have a much harder time. That'd be my guess at least.
Why would managers need to guess? That seems like a perfect job for another AI: "Hey PM bot, I want to get these tasks done, how many Amy-hours and how many Frank-hours do you estimate it will take?" Also, why not a Manager-bot too? Shareholders can leave humans out of the loop entirely except as necessitated by legal paperwork. Come to think of it, shareholders can probably be replaced too.
My take on this is that if anyone can learn a particular skill entirely from an AI, then it's not a skill you'd be able to monetize. And I really have no idea what, if any, are skills that AIs wouldn't be able to tackle in a decade.
Lots of procedural knowledge. Robotics is lagging behind deep learning advances, and it's unclear when robots would be cheaper than human labor in those areas. How expensive would a robot plumber be? Also skills that are valued when humans perform them.
>skills that are valued when humans perform them
Is this a real thing? I just bought an ice cream roulade cake the other day and was surprised to see in large print that it was "hand-rolled"; I couldn't for the love of god understand why that should be considered a good thing.
Not AGI related but this has always bothered me. I know he’s super talented but I always wonder how many other equally talented software engineers never get noticed and toil away at crappy jobs. What’s the trick to becoming a celebrity if you’re talented?
If anyone was truly as "equally talented" as John Carmack, they wouldn't remain unknown for very long. Plus, you can be extremely successful without having to be a celebrity, and John was always going to be successful.
Sure they would. They may be known but known to a niche group of people which may limit their success. Carmack is a self proclaimed hermit but he's been in the public eye for decades (through conventions, speeches, etc) and willingly pushes back against corporate bureaucracies (against Jobs, Zuckerberg, Gates, etc). That type of public persona adds a lot of clout and opens many more doors, genius or not. A genius hermit who doesn't rock the boat or is fine with the status quo might have a different path.
I have a tongue-in-cheek assertion that a single human can be smart — perhaps even intelligent. But, what we're experiencing in our society, right now, is an emergent superintelligence that is the culmination of the interaction of 8 billion "merely smart" monkeys. When I'm feeling especially dark, I just assume that most humans aren't even conscious or usefully sapient most of the time, and that continuity of conscio…
AGI is usually defined as anything a normal human could do. Examples of some things that GPT is currently lacking: 1) Understanding images and video 2) Learning and remembering things outside the 2048 token context window 3) Interacting with the environment (either through a computer, or in the real world) 4) Doing basic math (1662 + 239 = ?) and logic
> Learning and remembering things outside the 2048 token context window It is probably possible to do this with fine tuning. Once the context window is full, it might be possible to convert the content in there into additional training examples and feed those to a fine tuning process, which then retrains the model. (The OpenAI API for fine tuning is here: https://platform.openai.com/docs/guides/fine-tuning ) It would…
So an 18 hour long token window is acceptable as AGI, I like it.