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Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

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Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#381
I didn’t do it for the money, I did it for “humanity” so I want to appease advertisers to make money and save humanity even though I hate advertising.

Oh, also there are more than 30% bots on the platform but I still bought this thing because I want the trial to end because I don’t want to answer any more questions and reveal things that would put me in legal jeopardy.

Does he really think people are that stupid? I agree he is super smart but the rest of us are not that stupid.

Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#382

If I was working at Twitter right now I would be looking for a different job, regardless of what I think of Elon's politics/motives. The talk of layoffs and major policy changes creates massive uncertainty and I don't think I'd risk sticking out the transition. I bet many inside the company feel the same. This begs the question: If there is a major exodus, will it even matter? And, if it does, how will the problems m…

I mean, if you're a huge fan of him you'd probably stay. If you're not, you'd probably stay for the severance package, and do absolutely no work in the meantime. No company or recruiter will be holding the fact you were fired against you if/when you're swept away in the layoffs. If you genuinely like your job there and don't feel strongly about Musk either way, that's probably the toughest situation, and you should c…

Generally severance is structured such that it's voluntary, and comes earlier than layoffs. You don't get a big package if you wait for a layoff to be fired. That produces a moral hazard that encourages exactly the kind of fraud you're suggesting.

(And yes, what you're suggesting is straight up fraud.)

Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#383

If I was working at Twitter right now I would be looking for a different job, regardless of what I think of Elon's politics/motives. The talk of layoffs and major policy changes creates massive uncertainty and I don't think I'd risk sticking out the transition. I bet many inside the company feel the same. This begs the question: If there is a major exodus, will it even matter? And, if it does, how will the problems m…

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Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#384
post #219

We can argue about free speech & all that jazz to no end. But at the end of the day it's as simple as not banning elected officials. I don't care how divisive they are, we need to know what they say and do. These are people chosen by the people whether you love or hate them. Secondly, I just visited Twitter today and at the top it has statements about false accusations and fact checking prominently displayed. I follo…

Are you also for allowing elected officials to shout "fire!" in a theatre when there is no fire? What if someone dies in the rush to the exit, when there was no fire? People have already died because of lies being spread. People's lives have been ruined. It's only going to get worse, especially if the election deniers get voted in en masse in Nov.

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Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#385
post #353

The reason why Musk eventually bought Twitter, when he did, and at the price he paid, was to avoid having to testify under oath in the lawsuit against him. He was going to be deposed, exposed, and in the end he was also going to lose and suffer the indignity of having to pay a high price for something he fiercely said he didn't want anymore. Better bite the bullet earlier than later. Now that doesn't explain why he w…

> If he can simply wait for Twitter to be worth as much as he paid for it, so that he can sell it again and cover his losses, that will be a fairly good outcome. This is a leveraged buyout. That means that $13 Billion was borrowed from Morgan Stanley to make this deal happen, and Twitter is the owner of that debt. Estimates are ~$1.3 Billion / year in interest payments (the most risky $3 Billion is unsecured loans, e…

The debt payments and IR -- was this the trick to have the money upfront, then sell the debt, so banks, do they own any amount of Twitter or did they get a payout immediately after "the ink dried", and now this $1.3bb scenario is going to be offloaded onto someone else? Financial engineering that leads to Musk's ownership and banks payout. And now is the when the price of that debt is highest, so the highest possible payout (?). Because you've pointed out the paradoxical financials, IR payments seem whimsical, or a way to eventually sell more TSLA stock...

Any good resources on the deal structure?

Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#386
post #353

The reason why Musk eventually bought Twitter, when he did, and at the price he paid, was to avoid having to testify under oath in the lawsuit against him. He was going to be deposed, exposed, and in the end he was also going to lose and suffer the indignity of having to pay a high price for something he fiercely said he didn't want anymore. Better bite the bullet earlier than later. Now that doesn't explain why he w…

He implied in a few interviews that he wants to turn it into a WeChat version of the west. Doesn't 200M+ daily active users opens up that door.

You have to remember that those 200M+ users are located in many, many countries, with different laws and customs

Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#387

If I was working at Twitter right now I would be looking for a different job, regardless of what I think of Elon's politics/motives. The talk of layoffs and major policy changes creates massive uncertainty and I don't think I'd risk sticking out the transition. I bet many inside the company feel the same. This begs the question: If there is a major exodus, will it even matter? And, if it does, how will the problems m…

tbh you don't require 7k employees to run something like twitter. there's a lot of dead ballast there and as a private company you can't allow for that.

Something like Twitter perhaps, but Twitter itself? I wouldn't be surprised if those engineers created enough servers that need to be maintained and require the manpower. Cutting engineers without cutting servers/code would be a nightmare.

Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#388
I was a big Elon Musk fanboy for what he was able to accomplish on both Tesla and SpaceX. I had the impression that he was very genuine and really wanted to "save humanity".

I ignored the crazy things he said on twitter. I think his accomplishments overshadowed his less favorable behavior.

But after his tweets about Ukraine, it really started to dawn on me that his "save humanity" was not really save humanity, but just a really good sales pitch. He fooled me, I confess.

Right now, I see him as a very successful businessman. But if he can choose between making money or "doing the right thing", I think it's clear by now that he would go for the money (like jump into bed with Russia or China in a heartbeat, as long as it delivers the extra buck).

Buying Twitter seems like a really bad idea, for both society and his pocket. I think we're seeing "Haughtiness comes before the fall" (I didn't use 'pride' because in Dutch this expression seems better)

Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#389
post #353

The reason why Musk eventually bought Twitter, when he did, and at the price he paid, was to avoid having to testify under oath in the lawsuit against him. He was going to be deposed, exposed, and in the end he was also going to lose and suffer the indignity of having to pay a high price for something he fiercely said he didn't want anymore. Better bite the bullet earlier than later. Now that doesn't explain why he w…

When normal people get drunk and have bad ideas they phone an ex-girlfriend or sign up to a marathon. When you are the richest man in the you blow half your fortune on a social media platform.

Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#390

In the spirit of trying to be high-information and add value: Where Musk is going, there are no maps. So it's very very hard to project. But we can predict likely developments. At a very high level, it's going to involve: bringing back controversial personalities like Donald Trump; increasing Twitter's commitment to 'free speech'; assuaging skittish advertisers; retaining users who might be concerned, while bringing…

What if he just loses a big pile of money while Twitter twists in the wind because there isn't much of a plan? That seems likely enough really.
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