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The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

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Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#381

Yes, the situation is dire. I live in Lisbon as a foreigner for more than 12 years now. We pay a rent for a small flat that used to be very expensive and now is on the cheap side in our quarter of the city. Luckily, we have an older contract that cannot be changed as easily as newer ones. I'm not thrilled by the possibility that our landlord might cancel it some day, however, e.g. for relatives to move in. Rents in t…

> or example, if you own three ordinary apartments in Lisbon, you can live in one of them and easily make a good living by renting out the other two as holiday apartments. Because cleaning services, guys who do repairs, etc., are cheap in Portugal, this involves almost no work. Moreover, the net worth of your property will continually increase while you do (almost) nothing.

I'm a bit conflicted on this. I definitely see what you're saying (and often repeat it myself).

But it should be noted: property is simply an asset like any other. If there's easy and outsized returns to be had, the demand for this asset would increase, pushing up the price to the point that the returns on the asset are in line with returns of other assets which have similar risk/effort profiles.

To say that one can make money 'doing nothing' owning any asset (that has a positive return) is true. But that's not per se some kind of economic or political problem, it's a normal feature.

Of course to absolutely do nothing and still earn enough to live off of, means you must have earned enough money to purchase a large amount of assets. Supposing rental income of 5%, and supposing rent is 25% of someone's wages, and supposing a 20% tax rate on your returns, you'd essentially need to purchase assets worth 100 times what someone spends on rent.

(ex: if you need 40k to live on, spend 25% or 10k on rent, you'd need 100x that or 1 million returning a 5% return that's taxed 20%, leaving 40k in net income.)

Amassing 100x your rent is no easy feat, and in fact it means that someway, somehow, you've provided 100x your rent in value, without spending a penny of it, and saved it all, then poured it into an asset (incurring risk and requiring some level of commercial effort), and then, yes, you could start to approach doing 'nothing'.

For many that's a life's worth of work. Buying such assets is really no different from putting in an equivalent amount of money into a retirement fund, and that fund in turn buying assets like companies. Whether it's companies that buy and rent out cars, or real estate, or produce and sell, the people owning these enterprises through their retirement fund are 'doing nothing' while others are working.

But the important part to note is that anyone has access to this system. Every person can, proportionate to their income (based on their economic value to society) buy assets.

In fact, I'm able with a click of the button not to just buy a part of a in Portugal, but rather the biggest and most successful company on the planet: Apple. I can buy a small part in it, and profit when many of the planet's smartest and most educated people build & sell some of the most cutting edge consumer technology day in day out. Whilst doing: nothing.

So I don't really see a structural problem with this system. What is problematic is the stuff around it. For example, in some countries real estate goes untaxed and is subsidised, and is bailed out when things go bad. Subsidised private profits, and socialised public losses. It's unfair and a failure of markets and governance. Another example is that swathes of people indeed inherit value to the point they've never done any contribution to the world to get into a position to 'do nothing', rather than work to retire off of the fruits of their labour, they could in effect retire from work before ever even starting. This is where the system breaks down and must be balanced, again by e.g. taxing inheritance and balancing things out.

Finally, markets work when price & profit signals can balance supply & demand. If there is a shortage of bread, demand outpaces supply, the price rises, and overnight new bakeries will pop up bringing down the price. In real estate high prices often do not trigger new supply in many countries, either due to geographical limitations (e.g. the mountains of Taiwan limiting buildable space, or simply the fact physically there is a limited area we consider to be 'downtown new york' for example), but more often due to political limitations (NIMBYism). Because in real estate markets in many areas do not naturally solve the problem, government intervention is needed to ensure more equitable and fair outcomes moreso than in other types of markets. Again here I see a role for stronger taxation on outsized profits and some income support for groups otherwised pushed out of neighbourhoods.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#382

This sounds like what happened in the SFbay area(south bay/pennisula), I grew up there and it used to be a great place to live, center left politics, lots of families and a diverse set of industries with many middle class opportunities. right around 10-15 years ago things started to change dramatically for the worse, housing and costs everywhere skyrocketed, homeless population exploded, politics veered hard left. Mo…

As a resident, what do you think was the catalyst for these changes?

I'm also from the bay area, and it's quite simple: demand skyrocketed due to tech, and supply couldn't keep up, due to various kinds of regulations.

Zoning is the most obvious regulation that makes things hard: most land is zoned exclusively for single family homes on large lots. There's been a bit of movement on this from the state level to allow ADU's or duplexes, but not enough, there's usually various legal hurdles that make it harder. Missing middle housing is mostly still illegal.

The other thing is all the various processes involved. CEQA makes things take a long time (not that I'm opposed to protecting the environment, but surely there's a way to do it that doesn't take years for an apartment complex). Community meetings and planning commissions can often block new developments for random, arbitrary reasons, like "tall building would cast too many shadows" or "demand on street parking would increase"; these are things that are so obviously inherent to any significant development permitted in areas where you can build taller apartment buildings, and yet they're still used to block more housing.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#383
post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually California natives have one good thing going for them. Prop 13. So if you or your parents have lived in the house for 30+ years you're likely to pay $2K in property taxes on a $1M house (annually). The lack of middle-class jobs is a whole different story.

And that is the flip side to Prop 13, which a bunch of people like to hate on. Absent Prop 13 (for residential properties) a lot of long-term residents would be forced out by rapidly rising property taxes. Which would-be residents may not like but is not at all clearly a bad thing.

Even if that's your angle, Prop 13 is bizarrely overbroad. If you just wanted to protect long-term residents from needing to move:

* Remove its application to commercial property

* Remove its application to second/vacation homes

* Remove its application to inherited property

* Only apply the restriction if the increase would be burdensome on the household's income

* Only apply the restriction once someone has lived in the house for a significant amount of time, e.g. 5+ years.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#384
post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The nice thing about indoor space is that we can make pretty much as much of it as we'd like. What? Have you ever been in Lisbon? The city is pretty dense as it is. You could mostly just build higher, and that has its limits too, depending on the structure and foundation. Adding more housing outside the core of the city might not be attractive enough. And increasing the density of people also means you need to incr…

lol Lisbon is crowded. Lisbon: 6,452/km2 Barcelona: 16,000/km2 NYC: 25,000+/km2 (depends on the source) Lower East Side NYC: 33,600/km2 - due to zoning regs, there are very few buildings over 9 stories... but every building is 9 stories! Lower East Side NYC 1910: 144,000+/km2 - visit https://www.tenement.org/ to learn more. Kowloon Walled City, 1970s: ~2M/km2 !!! - inspiring 1000s of dystopian Sci Fi stories from Aki…

District I live in Vienna, Austria

25,000/km2

It’s pretty quiet too! :)

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#385
post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

we somehow managed to build houses for thousands of years, so it can't be that hard, can it? the scarcity is entirely artificial.

Historically most people didn’t live in single family homes. They lived in very crowded, multi-generational and small dwellings connected to many neighbors. Shared public spaces were used for getting together, etc. Most dwellings did not have kitchens, etc. Our idea of a home for “regular people” is radically different than what people have lived in. People need to probably drastically limit what they think of when t…

or you could just legalize building anything other than single family dwellings. there's a lot of room in between quarter acre lot suburbia, and a crowded favela! look up "missing middle housing". the problem is purely a matter of restrictive zoning.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#386
post #263

Very difficult to change because, in the "Pax Neoliberalia" world we live in, profits are Sacrosanct - and the higher the capital concentration, the holier so. But some straightforward fixes: 1. Flood the market with affordable state housing, Austria-style - with the bonus of building new, boosting the national economy. 2. Create very progressive (rapidly rising) taxes based on property value - making untenable the c…

I haven't seen number 1 actually "fix" Vienna's rental market? I mean it's not as crazy as other places, but I moved to Vienna in 2005 (since moved out) and it used to be a lot more affordable to rent in than today (even adjusting for inflation). So it's not that it's completely ineffective but it's not on it's own enough.

How much new housing have they been adding YoY?

When people suggest that adding more new housing, either public or private, doesn't work, this is usually left out: how much housing actually was being added?

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#387

> flats with just two bedrooms going for more than half a million euros in the centers of Lisbon or Oporto. How is that different from other places? Houses in the center of big cities are always a lot more expensive than others far away from it. Want a small one in the center of Rome? Here you are: 27mq, 2nd floor and no elevator, no heating, no air conditioning, abysmal energy efficiency, no kitchen, renovation need…

I'm from Rome and your example is cherrypicked bs.

Yes, very central touristic areas are expensive but half a million can get you 3 room apartments you can go to center by feet, even less would be enough.

That's the price you would pay, e.g. in Ostiense.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#388
post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Basically all of what you said is empty populist propaganda that doesn't pass a basic sniff test. You're painting the EU as the bad guy with a broad brush and it's just total nonsense. * depends on how you define "high" levels of migration, but few EU countries fit that. Portugal does, because they explicitly encourage it. Why? Nothing to do with the EU, they're trying to fight negative population growth. * social pr…

Yeah, facts. Demographics explains most of what's going on. Portugal's working age population is declining[1] while its 60-plus population is increasing.[2] Old people own most of the real estate and don't care much about workers. They also tend not to like change, which immigrants bring. So they dislike immigrants despite depending on them. (//TODO: find papers supporting these assertions: they're factoids of the "e…

> Old people own most of the real estate and don't care much about workers.

Lisbon's local government is renowned for being the largest property owner in the country, with over 60% of Lisbon's real estate owned by the city.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#389
post #332

In the long run the problem is self-correcting. If workers can't afford to live in what were the important cities, they live elsewhere. Eventually employers move to where the workers are. The formerly important cities become tourist meccas like Venice or Granada, or ghost towns. This is happening to London and Lisbon, and to a lesser extent to Amsterdam, Paris, New York and San Francisco, and other cities. It's a pit…

Don't agree with this analysis, it will end just not like that. The workers will have worse and worse living conditions until they're reduced to effective serfdom. Eventually they may rise up and force change through voting or riots, but that's quite unlikely for some time as the generations that benefitted from this still outnumber those suffering. The sad thing is that this has been done by one generation to the fo…

> ... The workers will have worse and worse living conditions until they're reduced to effective serfdom.

Both outcomes are possible; it basically depends om whether the high productivity of the most expensive cities is truly exceptional - in which case it won't benefit most workers - or something that can be readily replicated in the rest of the country. We've mostly seen examples of the former in places like the Bay Area: there's only a limited number of Big Tech unicorns around at any given time, after all. But the latter is a theoretical possibility, perhaps driven by more ubiquitous sorts of sustained technological change and innovation.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#390

Yes, the situation is dire. I live in Lisbon as a foreigner for more than 12 years now. We pay a rent for a small flat that used to be very expensive and now is on the cheap side in our quarter of the city. Luckily, we have an older contract that cannot be changed as easily as newer ones. I'm not thrilled by the possibility that our landlord might cancel it some day, however, e.g. for relatives to move in. Rents in t…

Many dislike the idea, but this is why people turn to "nationalism". If you want to decrease unemployment, you add tariffs for imports enabling more businesses to open domestically (i.e. tariffs effectively increase import costs). Similarly, you can loosen building codes to increase production of homes, limit visa duration, require citizenship for home ownership, etc. Those are some obvious fixes, why is the governme…

> Many dislike the idea, but this is why people turn to "nationalism".

I have to call Grade-A bullshit on your comment.

At best, nationalist political movements take advantage of sticking points with their highly opportunistic, ideologically incoherent and empty promises hoping to buy arguments while pinning the blame of everything on whoever is the incumbent at the time.

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