What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped • Hacker News Board

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#381

Post by google234123 » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 8:14 PM UTC

danenania wrote: post #352

jl6 wrote: post #261

I guess everyone's weighing in with their view, so why not? Firstly, we should be mindful that the fog of war is now in play, and a good amount of what we think we know is unverifiable. With that caveat out of the way... It seems that the Russian soldiers are making efforts to avoid attacking civilians directly. Counterexamples exist and could be explained by rogue units, incompetence, or hot-blooded revenge on local…

I don't even see how (b) is going to work at this point--with the massive flow of weapons and money that is coming from the West, and NATO safe havens on the borders, Russia will be playing whack-a-mole against insurgency forever no matter how much force they use. Imagine if the Iraq or Afghanistan insurgencies had had access to an endless supply of top-of-the-line weapons, orders of magnitude more funding, and 'safe…

Yo be fair, those insurgencies did kind of have access to safe zones (Pakistan is next to Afghanistan) and a good supply of weapons which definitely helped them.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#382

Post by akho » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 8:14 PM UTC

tguvot wrote: post #358

throwawayay02 wrote: post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are counter claims that that building was being used for recruitment for the Azov battalion.

like seriously, lol. their intelligence were crappy enough to miss a bunch of air defense systems but they know that in some specific building is an recruitment for azov

The specific building is the regional administration, and recruitment there was advertised in Ukrainian telegram channels.

All that excuses nothing.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#383

Post by JumpCrisscross » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 8:14 PM UTC

jl6 wrote: post #261

I guess everyone's weighing in with their view, so why not? Firstly, we should be mindful that the fog of war is now in play, and a good amount of what we think we know is unverifiable. With that caveat out of the way... It seems that the Russian soldiers are making efforts to avoid attacking civilians directly. Counterexamples exist and could be explained by rogue units, incompetence, or hot-blooded revenge on local…

> We need to find a variant of (a) that allows Putin to save face

Recognize the annexation of Crimea and promise immediate sanctions rollbacks the moment the last Russian troop leaves Ukraine (other than Donbas and Luhansk, that ship has sailed).

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#384

Post by ethbr0 » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 8:15 PM UTC

IncRnd wrote: post #220

blast wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If that is the case, why would officials and experts be "stumped"? This seems like the obvious explanation.

There are many possible explanations, so latching onto the first one that sounds plausible is not necessarily the correct one. Otherwise, we would all be like those pundits on TV. Several reasons might also be simultaneously true. Some simple examples: Russia might be testing NATO. Russia might not want to escalate in certain ways. There have been many countries whose leaders want to minimize the numbers they kill, w…

It wouldn't be unhelpful to increase the sortie rate of Baltic air policing missions and extend them over the Finnish border (with Finnish permission).

Potentially hostile assets require matching defensive stationing, even if they aren't doing anything aggressive. Fighters in Murmansk / Severomorsk aren't in Ukraine.

"Fleet in being" works for air forces too.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#385

Post by maratc » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 8:15 PM UTC

vkou wrote: post #355

maratc wrote: post #315

I think that Russia may have a two-prong strategy: either make sure Ukraine is not joining NATO, or make sure that Ukraine that joins NATO is completely wrecked. In the alternative reality, where Ukraine promises tomorrow not to join NATO (ever), the Russian targets for this war may be considered achieved, and everyone could simply go home, probably throwing in a couple billions deal for Ukraine recovery. This would…

I doubt that Russian demands about NATO are in good faith. It's hard to believe that the goal of this invasion was to prevent encirclement, given how Finland and Sweeden's reactions were completely predictable. I think the goal was annexation. The demands put out right now are intentionally unreasonable, but even if they were met, it would not stop the fighting.

OTOH we don’t have any evidence of Russia having any beef with either Georgia or Ukraine, up to 2008 NATO Bucharest summit, where NATO announced that Ukraine and Georgia would be accepted as members. Georgia was wrecked in half a year after that, and Ukraine since 2014, since the Orange Revolution.

The annexation argument came after the fact.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#386

Post by woah » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 8:16 PM UTC

high_pathetic wrote: post #356

unnouinceput wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was actually an accident. The tank was Ukrainian and the driver had very poor visibility, hence the swerve on top of civilian (70+ senior actually, that miraculously didn't got any injury) car.

Russian tank - deliberate run-over. Blast about it from all media channels. Oh, it's a Ukrainian tank. Pfft, it was in a accident, let's not talk about it. That's why I don't read/watch news, especially nowadays.

Ukraine wouldn't be putting 70 year olds in tanks if it wasn't being invaded in an unprovoked war by a much larger neighbor (and no, the goal of punishing NATO for not giving Russia a blank check to invade Ukraine by invading Ukraine is not a valid provocation).

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#387

Post by matkoniecz » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 8:16 PM UTC

criddell wrote: post #63

boc wrote: post #50

I think we need to consider the possibility that much of the Russian army only existed on paper, and that the true strength was overinflated by trickling up good news only throughout all ranks of the military.[1] Readiness was overstated. Equipment was overstated. Training was for parades, not combat. Everyone in the Russian military had assumed they'd never actually fight a real war, so they could grift and sell rat…

> the true strength was overinflated by trickling up When I watched HBO's excellent Chernobyl that was one of the recurring themes. Everybody is lying to their superiors and nobody wants to hear bad news and they suffer because if it. I assumed that was probably exaggerated for the sake of drama but maybe it was actually understated?

> I assumed that was probably exaggerated for the sake of drama

Communist countries were full of blatant incompetence, lying about what actually happens, mismanagement, stealing and strategic deliberate incompetence.

Just look at state of economy of communist block and why USSR failed.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#388

Post by selimthegrim » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 8:17 PM UTC

Banana699 wrote: post #86

jeffreyrogers wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Slav fellowship does not work in wars. No fellowship works in wars. Historically combatants have treated their opponents differently based on race and existing cultural attitudes. Don't see why it would be any different this time around.

>Historically combatants have treated their opponents differently based on race and existing cultural attitudes Huh? when have that ever been true? European religious wars have been huge bloodsheds, communist regimes routinely genocided their own (often quite homogenous) populations, Lebanon's civil war saw neighbors shooting at each other. The truth of the matter is : when people want to fight, they will find someth…

When German POWs were taken to American South in WWII, they were considered 'white' and treated better than black US Army soldiers on leave.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#389

Post by newby » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 8:18 PM UTC

BitwiseFool wrote: post #155

HideousKojima wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Violence also helps back the idea that Russia needs to be there to stop the violent nazis that state media has painted Ukrainians to be (goes without saying, this is completely fabricated). It definitely isn't "completely fabricated": https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion The real problem is, who gives a shit if a small unit in the Ukrainian National Guard is made up of far right extremists? It's a purely i…

I can't help but think Putin's guise of "denazifying Ukraine" was a poorly understood attempt to gain some favor with those in Western societies that see themselves as fighting fascism and right-wing extremism. As a westerner, I've definitely noticed my more left leaning friends agree with actions that seemingly contradict classical liberal ideals (free speech, free association) as long as such actions seem to be in…

> I can't help but think Putin's guise of "denazifying Ukraine" was a poorly understood attempt to gain some favor with those in Western societies that see themselves as fighting fascism and right-wing extremism.

> As a westerner, I've definitely noticed my more left leaning friends agree with actions that seemingly contradict classical liberal ideals (free speech, free association) as long as such actions seem to be in service of fighting fascism...

Nah, this is targeted at Russians. I think that as a westerner you underestimate the power of the myth of Russians saving the world from fascism. This is the very core of their identity. You can find some interesting details here: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497306746330697738.html

Personal experience: I grew up during cold war in one of east-european satelites of the Soviet union. That myth was probably weaker here than in the Soviet union itself, yet it felt ever-present; kind of representation of the mythical struggle of good versus evil. When me and my friends were playing "soldiers" as kids, we were always Russians shooting at fascists. And I remember loving books for kids where some Russian paratrooper befriends local boy and together fight fascism... This was during the latest stages of the communist regime, when almost everyone here hated communists and especially Russians. The idealized memory of their heroic struggle against fascism was the only positive thing that survived in the minds of people.

Obviously, no mention of Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact etc. in history books.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#390

Post by dpark » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 8:18 PM UTC

atlantas wrote: post #229

slavoingilizov wrote: post #13

Many conflicting viewpoints here. Sure, there's been less of a push from Russia than everyone expected, but it's not like Ukraine controls the sky either. Are Ukranians really still flying? If that was the case, the mentioned 40-mile convoy heading to Kiev would have been hit by now, no? Russians driving vehicles bumper to bumper shows VERY strong confidence that they own the sky, so things might not be as rosy for U…

Right, I'd love to hear a good explanation for why they're not attacking a 40-mile long convoy on a road. At least bomb the front of the convoy, wtf. That Russia sent in such a rich sitting duck target and it's not being attacked suggests they have air superiority and we're getting bad information.

I can’t decide if the people here in the comments spend too much time watching action movies or too little.

Obviously the first thing that pops to mind when you hear “air superiority” and “40 mile convoy of enemy tanks” is “bomb that convoy to dust”. The second thing that should pop is “ambush”. Losing 5 aircraft to surface to air missiles to take out 5 tanks would be a poor tradeoff.

Doubtless bombing the convoy is something Ukraine has considered. Also doubtless they are aware that the convoy isn’t guaranteed to be a parade of sitting ducks.