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Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

reuters.com

381–390 of 408 posts

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#381

> Shares of developer Fantasia Holdings (1777.HK) plunged 50% on Wednesday after it said there was no guarantee it would be able to meet its other financial obligations following a missed payment of $205.7 million due on Oct. 4. Watch the US bond market closely. Today saw a sharp selloff on the 10-year maturity, a favorite "asset" of foreign governments and companies. When those organizations get into trouble, they s…

How can the "entire world" have a short position on USD? Who is taking the other side of the position? Is there someone outside of the world lending out money?

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#382

> Shares of developer Fantasia Holdings (1777.HK) plunged 50% on Wednesday after it said there was no guarantee it would be able to meet its other financial obligations following a missed payment of $205.7 million due on Oct. 4. Watch the US bond market closely. Today saw a sharp selloff on the 10-year maturity, a favorite "asset" of foreign governments and companies. When those organizations get into trouble, they s…

> The dollar spiked past a key technical level today. I don't know much about "technical" forex trading, but I can say that USD/CNY didn't really change today, neither did USD/CAD, or USD/GBP. Everything is around where it's been over the past few weeks. Are you saying the real exchange rates will significantly change soon?

Turns out that USD is getting stronger today, except, of course, against CNY. Interesting.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#383
post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need speculation to send price signals to the housing producers. Speculation without any building is the problem. Speculators blocking new building is also a problem.

Speculation is also a problem when you have to pay to play. Everyone needs housing, but when owning a house means it has a speculative resale value, you have to pay that premium in order to buy one. This has a few consequences: 1. Downpayments and mortgages grow, because you aren't just buying shelter, you are buying a financial instrument with a significant resale value. 2. Your financial well-being is now deeply en…

1. you don't need to own your house as an asset to have housing

2. yes, people should be expected to pay the time discounted expected future value of the thing in order to own the thing. speculation is what prevents people from buying shitty houses for dirt cheap in areas that are ideal for apartment development and then refusing to move - that is a good thing.

2 -> Yes agreed, it is bad how it distorts the incentives and when the people on one side of the transaction (usually the homeowners) have all or most of the political power, that becomes a large problem.

The reality is that we have to have a mechanism to encourage people to sell their homes and move when more valuable uses become available (like moving in 30 people into an apartment building where there were previously

Speculation, in the United States, is that mechanism. There are probably alternatives (as a sketch: devolving eminent domain authority to local govt & non-profits -> obtain financing for compensating owners -> eminent domain-ify vacant lots/unused parking lots -> build housing -> sell housing -> pay back creditors; this would probably do a ton), but currently speculation & financialization is the best engine for resource allocation in the US.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#384
post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely crazy that the top comment on this story is a "USD short squeeze" idea after 5 hours. These amounts, 200 million, 150 million USD.. this is peanuts, a fart in the wind. PROTIP: Anyone like Lyn Alden that is offering premium stock tips is by definition a fraud, if you can beat the markets you just beat the markets and Scrooge McDuck-it, you don't run a damn newsletter.

Lehman Bros was, relatively speaking, also a "fart in the wind" - it all started with $2.8 billion loss (not even default). Things kinda snowballed massively from there though, over the course of a few months to the point where it was a threat to the global financial system. The fear is the same could happen in China as well.

Lehman was allowed to go bankrupt, which in the UK forced the immediate cessation of operations (in the U.S., the firm can still operate even if its bankrupt). That was the equivalent of shifting to park on a car moving 80 miles an hour, especially as they froze their prime brokerage.

The blow up probably could have been less severe if they smoothed the landing.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#386
post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The system isn't that simple? The US Government sells treasuries and bonds to raise dollars. These have to be approved by congress, which is why every so often you'll hear about government shutdowns, because, yes, if for whatever reason, the US Congress doesn't pass a debt ceiling lift, the US Treasury will not have enough money to run things anymore. Then there's the Federal Reserve, which loans dollars to banks to…

The real fun begins when the fed starts buying treasuries.

What happens then? Don't they already do that?

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The United States government defaulting on any amount of its debt would be really really really stupid policy. > Because transfer of wealth from US investors to China harms US interests, the US government exists to serve US interests and part of that is standing up for their nationals in international trade. I am not convinced apriori that this is the case, and don't feel comfortable having politicians who definitely…

> The United States government defaulting on any amount of its debt would be really really really stupid policy. Also arguably unconstitutional

>Also arguably unconstitutional

Umm how?

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#388

> Shares of developer Fantasia Holdings (1777.HK) plunged 50% on Wednesday after it said there was no guarantee it would be able to meet its other financial obligations following a missed payment of $205.7 million due on Oct. 4. Watch the US bond market closely. Today saw a sharp selloff on the 10-year maturity, a favorite "asset" of foreign governments and companies. When those organizations get into trouble, they s…

Absolutely crazy that the top comment on this story is a "USD short squeeze" idea after 5 hours. These amounts, 200 million, 150 million USD.. this is peanuts, a fart in the wind. PROTIP: Anyone like Lyn Alden that is offering premium stock tips is by definition a fraud, if you can beat the markets you just beat the markets and Scrooge McDuck-it, you don't run a damn newsletter.

> Anyone like Lyn Alden that is offering premium stock tips is by definition a fraud

I've been reading everything I could on economy and finance in my early twenties and Lyn Alden blog is the only thing I needed then and wasn't available. She is pure gold — I know no one that is able to explain complex topics in this context with such clarity.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#389
post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you believe that?

If their commercial paper is something other than Evergrande, surely they'd have said so by now. (Assuming it exists at all, of course)

They have said it's not Evergrande.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#390
post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if they take Taiwan, won’t they be completely shut out of world markets?

By what mechanism? Most of the world more or less officially recognizes China's claim on Taiwan. I think it would be horrifically sad and disappointing, but more or less ignored, like Hong Kong.

Biden has said he'd go to war to protect Taiwan. https://www.npr.org/2021/10/28/1048513474/biden-us-taiwan-ch...

Probably posturing, but hard to imagine he wouldn't at least impose sanctions.

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