Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater • Hacker News Board

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#381

Post by baremetal » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 1:53 PM UTC

ryanackley wrote: post #274

hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

The biggest problem with being an owner builder is you don't have an ongoing relationship with sub-contractors. Which means that for any subs you hire, you will be their lowest priority and their smallest concern. Also, you don't really know what you're doing so you will think they made a mistake when they didn't and you won't always recognize real mistakes. I did this for my new house that was being built before, du…

there is no perfection in home building. there are errors that the owner can see, and errors he cant see. the idea is to ensure all errors are in camp 2.

note: i got a job on a framing crew so i could learn to build my own house.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#382

Post by hnick » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 1:56 PM UTC

sgt wrote: post #249

hnick wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you already own a home that appreciated to $800k+ then trading in to buy at $1M doesn't seem as bad. Prices seem silly to me here too (Australia) but a lot of it seems to be a combination of the perception that house prices just always go up, so you have to "get on the ladder" as they say and trade your way along. Each step doesn't seem to be a huge investment in itself. If you don't hop on, then you get left behi…

But that means moving all the time. Yes you will trade yourself to the best house in the end and perhaps to a much better neighborhood, but moving can be a bit traumatizing...

One option is to move as you change jobs.

But tax law here also makes loss-making investment properties attractive to people, and borrowing against equity is another thing. Interest-only loans (as interest is a deductible investment expense), plus other expenses (all the better if it's in a nice holiday destination so flights and hotels to "inspect the property" are deductible), resulting in a minor loss on rent, which is offset against your primary salary and other investments.

Negative gearing like this allows people to basically zero out a house on the balance sheet and move on to buying another. Let it appreciate for a few years and you're ahead. Be a major voting base and politicians won't dare ruin your gravy train.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#383

Post by PragmaticPulp » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 2:01 PM UTC

titzer wrote: post #346

hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

> If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. I'm not sure what you have in mind here, but my brother did an "owner build" in the true sense of the word and sunk every nail into every piece of wood, every pipe, every wire, every window, floor, staircase, insulation, lighting, built all the cabinets, everything. That was 8 years of his life. Two of those years he literally quit h…

I think the parent comment was suggesting to hire subcontractors to do most or all of the work.

But I agree: It’s easy to greatly underestimate the amount of work that goes into a house. Contractors will have entire crews, all of the equipment they need, and most importantly they have years of experience to know how to do something quickly and in a way that will pass inspection.

A DIYer must first learn each step before doing it, which can take as much or more time than the task itself in many cases.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#384

Post by SuoDuanDao » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 2:01 PM UTC

datavirtue wrote: post #368

blacktriangle wrote: post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You mean as long as the kids' parents aren't mentally abusing their children to score points with their woke friends.

Seeing a lot of this in private school.

I wonder how much children are also encouraged to talk up the amount of gaslighting for the same reasons the adults are encouraged to engage in it.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#385

Post by satronaut » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 2:01 PM UTC

pengaru wrote: post #198

fridif wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I spent 1.1M on a house with my wife of course and am very happy with my purchase. Lots of land and nobody around to tell me what to do.

> with my wife > nobody around to tell me what to do

burn!

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#386

Post by datavirtue » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 2:03 PM UTC

octopoc wrote: post #60

hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

If I may ask, what are your thoughts on BuildZoom? If I go through them can I be more certain about quality work? I have heard many horror stories of people who had houses built and the builders made terrible mistakes. The person having the house built had to micromanage them and kept finding bad mistakes, like "forgetting" to put insulation in walls before the drywall, putting a window in the wrong spot, or putting…

People don't forget to do that stuff. Drywaller shows up with crew. Insulation is not in. A lot of people just shrug and install the drywall. Maybe they are in a good mood and have another job close by that they can go to after informing the GC about the insulation. My money is on them just throwing up the drywall. Imagine the "bastard operator from hell" and you will have a good feel for how they view you and your house...typically. There are some craftsman out there but good luck finding them.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#387

Post by datavirtue » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 2:06 PM UTC

plater wrote: post #251

octopoc wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I may ask, what are your thoughts on BuildZoom? If I go through them can I be more certain about quality work? I have heard many horror stories of people who had houses built and the builders made terrible mistakes. The person having the house built had to micromanage them and kept finding bad mistakes, like "forgetting" to put insulation in walls before the drywall, putting a window in the wrong spot, or putting…

Someone I know who had their house built took pictures of the construction site every day. That way, if an issue turned up later, he could prove by showing the pics that they forgot to do something or did it in the wrong way.

Then it's too late. Code requirements would prevent all of this. Requiring county inspection to certify insulation install (presence, no gaps) and thickness (R-value) with a post-install test. All of that would increase costs and build time though.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#388

Post by steve76 » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 2:07 PM UTC

Government hands out free checks.

Criminals use them to buy weapons to kill people.

Their victims flee to the hills and build.

Government stops handing out free checks.

Criminals die.

All that material sits there and rots. We'll pay you if you will take it.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#389

Post by chasd00 » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 2:10 PM UTC

lotsofpulp wrote: post #307

dagw wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding is that anybody can do any type of electrical work (in homes), but certain type of electrical work needs to be certified. If your electrician isn't certified then a third party certifier has to certify the work after completion.

It is the same in the US. The actual labor can be done by anyone, but a licensed electrician has to be willing to accept liability for it. It is quite a racket in some towns, as some electricians will have an “expedited” relationship with the town’s inspectors, so you basically have to hire certain electricians if you want your project to move along smoothly. The electrician will come by and walk through for 5 min gl…

Architects are the same way, a couple draftsmen to all the design and construction documents. Then, while on the way out the door to lunch, the architect gets their stamp and a sharpie out.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#390

Post by ericmay » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 2:14 PM UTC

MrYellowP wrote: post #257

mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

They don't need an excuse. Thanks to the idea of the Great Reset, everyone with enough money is trying to have a house they will eventually rent away, or live in it themselves. There's zero reason for prices to go down. None. I've read that plenty of houses are being bought even above asking price, so cost of building isn't a real factor. Sure, I'm not counting the crash where all the clueless dumb money will try to…

I'm seeing prices go down. I've been looking passively for a few years (it's like my version of doom scrolling on Facebook or something). Houses in Columbus listed for $500,000, $600,000, $900,000, etc. are dropping in price, $5k cut here, $10k cut there, and then it's a total of $25k cut. Or they pul it off the market and re-list $50k cheaper.

Neighbors just sold their house, went for $5k under asking in one of the best school districts in the state. I think it's over-priced still, but w/e. Point is there hasn't been a whole lot of selling under asking price going on, and now there is.