A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society?

Post by at_a_remove » Tue, Feb 02, 2021, 2:59 PM UTC

gregw2 wrote: post #317

at_a_remove wrote: post #97

Without ending up on an FBI watchlist, let's just say, for the sake of argument, that Sales and "Uncle Ted" were on the right track about technology inevitably leading toward psychic isolation and environmental devastation, that corporations are finding ways to turn each human interaction into a commodity, that we're well beyond carrying capacity for the planet and have likely screwed up the ecology for the next mill…

For a fictional exploration of the "doomed to recreate it all" phenomena, there's a nice novel called "Canticle for Leibowitz" where post-nuclear-armageddon scientists are in part blamed for the nuclear war and knowledge is explicitly culturally rejected... but then slowly crawls back into the picture.

Post by bumby » Tue, Feb 02, 2021, 2:59 PM UTC

XorNot wrote: post #261

BoardsOfCanada wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes and we need to avoid the nirvana fallacy. I live in a country with public health care and every so ofter people are sent home to die from scheduled surgery because there aren't doctors or other staff available. My dad had 99% clogged heart arteries before he got treatment. My brother works in the US and prefer their system, but then he's got a good job - still a data point for the discussion.

So, how rich is your dad? Because unless it was "can drop quarter of a million dollars or more" rich, then no, in the US he would've just been sent home to die. The existence of a public healthcare system running at capacity is not evidence the US system "doesn't have this problem". Being denied treatment because you can't afford it is objectively worse then being denied treatment because the system is busy. One prob…

Post by TheOtherHobbes » Tue, Feb 02, 2021, 3:04 PM UTC

olau wrote: post #294

simonh wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure. I'm a capitalist and free marketeer, but support social security systems and even public health care. I think the US goes too far, particularly it's health care system is appalling, but I have to admit it's thin employment protections do make it a lot more flexible and responsive to economic conditions. Just look at how rapidly it recovered from the 2008 crisis compared to Europe, it was a whole year ahead of u…

How do you know that was because of their job market? As far as I'm aware, that was because they printed tons of money. Money was printed in the EU too, but stopped much sooner - far too soon. As if people forgot about Keynes. And actually I think you have some of this backwards. If you have a good social security net, you don't have to protect workers as much. Likewise, health care is an investment in human capital.…

Post by DyslexicAtheist » Tue, Feb 02, 2021, 3:04 PM UTC

herewegoagain2 wrote: post #349

biztos wrote: post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I frankly expect "smashing them to bits" (or setting them on fire) to be the response in France when self-driving cargo trucks are introduced. In America and a lot of other rich countries I can imagine a large workforce just sort of slowly dissipating as they are made redundant by the unstoppable force of technology, but at least a few places may strongly disagree about the unstoppability, and put it to the test.

Do you personally feel like smashing such a truck? Or would only ex truck drivers feel that way? Because if they are simply being faded out of existence (replacing retiring drivers with AI), there won't be any ex truckers to smash the trucks.

Post by TheOtherHobbes » Tue, Feb 02, 2021, 3:09 PM UTC

simonh wrote: post #355

disgruntledphd2 wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well the British recovery was almost certainly slowed by the introduction of austerity following the return of the Conservatives to power. The European (i.e Eurozone/EU) recovery was knocked back by the raising of interest rates by the ECB in 2011. And finally, the US did recover better because they put a lot more proportionally into stimulus (even though it wasn't enough, as later events showed). I'm not sure that y…

Nowhere near as flexible as the US though. The ability to hire and fire quickly without high costs has helped the USA recover from crises many times in the past as well. Employers in countries with high protections for workers are often reluctant to hire because it costs so much to slim down the work force once you employ them. It's not like the aftermath of 2008 was the first time this has ever been tested. To be cl…