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London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

hsj.co.uk

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Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#381

Post by fsdfgsfsdfsdfsd »

rswskg wrote: post #380
fsdfgsfsdfsdfsd wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the evidence is clear. There are countries that were unsuccessful with their lockdowns, and countries were numbers were decreasing (because of lockdown or other reasons is unclear). Then there is China, whose numbers can't be trusted. And some remote island states seem to have done well. Most interesting case perhaps Taiwan (which incidentally also belongs to China).

The taiwanese people might have something to say about that.

About what - being part of China? I don't think so.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#382

Post by tasuki »

LeoNatan25 wrote: post #367
tasuki wrote: post #366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you quantify that? I've been under the impression that outdoors transmission was extremely rare and the vast majority of transmission was indoors. I've been meeting with people outdoors for walks thinking that was mostly safe. I've no sources unfortunately.

Wind, UV light from the sun, wearing a mask—these all help, but it’s never 100%. From the research I’ve seen, it’s 20 to 1 safer. But as the virus becomes more transmissible, as well as different outdoor environments, the risk can fluctuate. Be careful. Mental health is important, but so is your physical health. Keep distance on your walks, and choose outdoor areas with a lot of air circulation.

20 to 1 sounds fair - thanks!

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#383

Post by barnacled »

simonbarker87 wrote: post #12
barnacled wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not for much of the country, including London. Source: living in (what was at the time) a tier 4 area The issue is the new strain, clearly. Cases were growing even during the November lockdown.

Growing in the southeast from memory but the rest of the country saw pretty strong decreases I think. Wasn’t Kent the first place things started to really kick off and take a turn in mid Nov?

yep, I literally got married on the 18th and tier 4 was brought in on the 19th. Much of the rest of the country was in tier 3 and the xmas days were rolled back from 5 to 1 with only xmas day itself permitted, only in lower tier areas and with more restrictions.

Little weird to be getting to -1 downvotes for something that's a google away...

London and the SE is where the new highly infectious strain originated from and was more or less entirely locked down. Big chunk of population here too...

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#384

Post by WaitWaitWha »

AareyBaba wrote: post #122
WaitWaitWha wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/currently-hospitalized... hospitalization by state: 342 per million FL 569 per million CA 444 per million PA 442 per million NY Can anyone point me to similar chart for death per million, by state, over time?

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states-...

Excellent! Thank you!

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#385

Post by WaitWaitWha »

WaitWaitWha wrote: post #98
markdown wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you ignore the dead and dying, yes, everything is just fine.

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/currently-hospitalized... hospitalization by state: 342 per million FL 569 per million CA 444 per million PA 442 per million NY Can anyone point me to similar chart for death per million, by state, over time?

deaths by 100K (from link provided by AareyBaba@):

FL 104.7

CA 72

PA 134.1

NY 201.1

highest:

ND 176

Lowest:

OH 80.9

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#386

Post by DanBC »

stogxx wrote: post #52
jpxw wrote: post #33

And yet we still have idiots here in the UK saying things ranging from: * coronavirus is invented as a government power grab * the government locking down is a deliberate ploy to kill small businesses * the government should just let this run its course, it’s Just A Flu TM * hospitals are actually empty (the “proof” being people recording empty waiting rooms in outpatient departments on bank holiday weekends) * coron…

NHS is overwhelmed every winter if the hyperbolic headlines are to be believed

Here's a useful thread that comprehensively debunks this point: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1347200811303055364

Winter pressure this year, no matter how you count it, is considerably worse than it has been in the past.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#387

Post by DanBC »

mhh__ wrote: post #112
stogxx wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NHS is overwhelmed every winter if the hyperbolic headlines are to be believed

Just to flesh this out, the NHS could use more money, but it's worth saying that it's the only European healthcare system I'm aware of so fragile. If you ask a lot of British people they seem to think that the only alternative is the wild west found in the US, rather than the other healthcare systems in Europe. There was a good piece in the private eye a few years ago listing headlines saying the NHS is doomed tomorr…

But every year we have excess mortality caused by cuts to service. That's literally people dying because of poor funding choices. What do you expect to see? Ambos on fire?

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#388

Post by postalrat »

apexalpha wrote: post #356
postalrat wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been hearing that for months. If coronavirus had a doubling time of 7 days we should be well over 1,000,000,000,000,000 cases by now. And you or nobody else knows what the natural end would be for this virus. A fast spreading variant could overall reduce deaths over the next 5 years.

Coronavirus will grow exponentially IF you let it! That's why we're all wearing face masks, limiting social interaction and even put whole countries in a full lockdown. WE all do this to LOWER the spread of the virus.

Nothing grows "exponentially" for long. Because if it did it would overtake the universe.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#390

Post by DanBC »

cptskippy wrote: post #283
matthewmacleod wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AFAIK you have misunderstood the data; the “open” figure is not the number of unoccupied beds, but the total number of beds available for patients (1033) of which 882 were occupied by patients already (meaning 151 unoccupied).

I disagree. The word open is superfluous if that's the case. What's the meaning of the word open if not unoccupied or available? Of course that begs the question, why did they use open instead of unoccupied? If open is meant to mean bed that can be utilized, then we don't have a true number of beds or a reason why a bed would be closed. Either way it's confusing but generally the term open as the opposite of occupied…

Open means the bed and staff are present, but not necessarily available because it might have a patient in it.

This is compared to beds that are not available because eg the hospital is in critcon4.

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