Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

bloomberg.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

381–390 of 671 posts

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#381

Post by SkyBelow »

starlust2 wrote: post #370
SkyBelow wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why should the number of bankruptcies matter if the person is still rich? It shows that they are using it as a tool, which might inform us we need to consider how bankruptcies work, but that doesn't make someone incompetent. If you want to see someone who is incompetent with money, look at lottery winners who within 5 years end up worse than before they won.

Citation needed, and by that I mean his tax returns and financial statements. The public at large does not know how much Trump is worth because he won't disclose much of anything.

If you want to play that game, then citation needed that he went bankrupt and I only take his tax returns and financial statements.

See how this level of discussion of not just demanding a citation, but then limiting what citations you accept to an extremely small set of documents isn't constructive?

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#382

Post by hedora »

xiphias2 wrote: post #318
SkyBelow wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why should the number of bankruptcies matter if the person is still rich? It shows that they are using it as a tool, which might inform us we need to consider how bankruptcies work, but that doesn't make someone incompetent. If you want to see someone who is incompetent with money, look at lottery winners who within 5 years end up worse than before they won.

He used it as a tool, the companies became bankrupt, he got rich. I imagine he will get rich even if U.S. goes through a bankrupcy.

He didn’t “get” rich. He was born rich. He would have much more money today if he had passively invested it. The man is a managerial train wreck that’s been consistently burning untold wealth for 30+ years.

Much of what he has left was gotten by repeatedly breaking the law, and somehow only ending up with civil liability instead of criminal convictions.

Now he is actively wrecking the US economy and has somehow bullied the GOP into going along with it.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#383

Post by zanny »

cryptozeus wrote: post #91

What would be the best asset store money? Cash ?

As someone who has been out of BTC for years because I have no faith in it anymore and recognize it as the foreign controlled money laundering machine it is, its still probably going to skyrocket in this recession. I've been wrong every time before when I expected markets to grow wise to the pyramid scheme and centralized nature of bitcoin and how it doesn't function at all according to its creators vision and how it doesn't function at all as a currency whatsoever but the prospect of short term profits simply overrides all rationality in that fledgling market it seems.

Its basically digital gold where the value is expecting other people in the future to really want it by thinking its valuable, and a global recession is exactly the time when something like that becomes more valuable.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#384

Post by SkyBelow »

munificent wrote: post #380
SkyBelow wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why should the number of bankruptcies matter if the person is still rich? It shows that they are using it as a tool, which might inform us we need to consider how bankruptcies work, but that doesn't make someone incompetent. If you want to see someone who is incompetent with money, look at lottery winners who within 5 years end up worse than before they won.

> Why should the number of bankruptcies matter if the person is still rich? If. Did Trump ever put more effort into anything in his campaign and Presidency than he put into preventing his tax returns from getting out?

Even if he is a lot poorer than he claims, he is still rich compared to what we normally consider rich vs poor. I'm not sure why we would suddenly change the baseline in this particular case.

If you want to claim he isn't as rich as he claims, then then I'm not disputing that at all (I haven't a clue), but to claim he isn't rich does not align with existing evidence without fiddling with how we define rich and poor in ways we don't otherwise fiddle with such definitions.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#385

Post by hindsightbias »

api wrote: post #180
roymurdock wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My question is what is the point of the trade war. What does trump get from initiating/escalating it, or who is directing him to do it. Seems to be a net negative for all sectors of the economy.

You are making the error people always make with personalities like Trump. Assertive alpha signaling and mammalian dominance gestures tell the parts of our brain that haven't changed since we were small tree rats that "this person knows what they're talking about, trust them, follow them." These parts of the brain are primitive and emotional and can easily override the rational mind. This is why charisma tends to bea…

The only thing less rational than the markets are voters.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#386

Post by repolfx »

dobleboble wrote: post #355
JeremyNT wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regardless of the man himself, historically the "deep state" (for lack of a better phrase) has so much inertia that radical changes (even if desired) by the White House end up moderated. I think it's more correct to say that people are realizing that the old order under the president is gradually eroding and its moderating effects are weakening, which adds compounding risks (directly in the trade war stuff but also h…

"federal government" is probably a better term than "deep state" unless you're intentionally trying to be inflammatory...

It's accurate. The Federal government in theory answers to the President or at least Congress. But the comment was discussing people in the government who work directly and quietly against government policy, to 'moderate' it. The notion of civil servants found many layers down the hierarchy who have their own agenda and ignore orders from the top is the notion of the deep state.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#387

Post by 40acres »

The forward looking indicators indicate recession, the backwards looking indicators indicate recession, and the general pattern of the yield curve suggests a downturn within ~20 months.

Question is; what's a normal personal investor to do? Knowing that expectations are baked into the price and timing the market is a fools errand, what can normal people do to shield themselves?

I've been 90/10 asset allocation since entering the workforce (2013) and it's been amazing for me. I obviously plan to continue to contribute to my funds but at what point would a rebalance or choosing a different fund be wise? A majority of my fund holdings are in tech, healthcare and banking/finance.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#388

Post by throwaway5752 »

gomez9 wrote: post #357
throwaway5752 wrote: post #109

Everyone serious knew that a trade war would set a recession in motion, and that it would be a trade war the US would lose because of the directionality of the trade. The thought has always been that the president was using a high leverage negotiating strategy (see https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/for-trump-diplomacy... , for example) to extract maximal concessions from PRC. But in the end, most of the people…

Yield curve inversion is way bigger than the trade war. Also the trade war directionality favors the USA.

Yield curve inversion is the symptom, not the cause.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#389

Post by dragontamer »

ben_jones wrote: post #373
dobleboble wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"federal government" is probably a better term than "deep state" unless you're intentionally trying to be inflammatory...

I think the rational definition of Deep State is just the government “lifers” who stay in significant spheres of influence for most of their career. I.e. key defense, intelligence, financial, etc positions.

The problem is that "Deep State" is a loaded term. You could very well argue that the N-word is a historically accurate (and Latin) way to describe African Americans.

Instead of using "Deep State", it might be better to say "Agency Directors", if you wanted to use neutral language. "Deep State" is loaded. Of course, its more popular these days to value-signal which side of an argument you're on, rather than appearing neutral...

In any effect, the people who use the word "Deep State" wish to imply that government workers have their own agendas. In my experience however, government workers overwhelmingly just want to do a good job with the task they've been assigned (much like any other human who are tasked with a job).

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#390

Post by hyperpape »

strenholme wrote: post #350
hyperpape wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If anyone has done a comparison of the size of profitless companies in the (tech) market, today and before the dot-com crash, that would be incredibly valuable. My gut feeling is that they constituted a larger portion of the market back then, but I've never seen a direct comparison.

Not enough time to do a real comparison, but Uber feels a lot bigger than all of the mid-sized startups which dominated the dot-com landscape. They are a lot bigger than Webvan was (22,000 vs. 3,500 employees) not to mention Netscape (2,500 employees at its peak); Webvan and Netscape were the most famous big dot-com flops.

Thanks for the data point. It's helpful, but I'd be worried about extrapolating too much from one outsized data point.

For one thing, BLS stats say that computer programming has grown from 528k to 1666k from 1999 - 2018 (the broad category of Computer and Mathematical Operations went from 2620k to 4384k). For another, just looking at the largest company only works if the distribution is similar.

Still, it is relevant that Uber is so big.

Post reply on HN