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Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

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Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Im skeptical you can do real autonomous driving without context. In DC, we have roads that flow one direction part of the day and another direction the other part. We've got roads that will be shut down unpredictably when there is a diplomatic event. We've got constant construction, where a two lane road might be reduced to one lane with a human holding a sign or using hand signals to usher cars through on their turn…

For a few more very common examples of humans using context: A human will spot a person wearing headphones and recognize that person has a low situational awareness. The computer doesn't come close to even having the optical resolution to do that if the AI was perfect - remember human vision is 570+ megapixels, even a 4K video stream is literally two orders of magnitude lower. [Now think about the fact that if we bui…

> remember human vision is 570+ megapixels

This seems to come from http://www.clarkvision.com/articles/eye-resolution.html

But that number is a calculation of the maximum resolving power of the human eye filled across a 120 degree field of view. The fovea is the only portion of the retina that actually attains that acuity and it encompasses roughly 2 degrees in the center of the retina.

There are roughly 120 million rod cells and 6 million cone cells in the retina. The rod cells for color vision and cone cells for low light. As each individual rod cell is primarily sensitive to one of red, green or blue they match fairly well to the rgb channels of a pixel. So the eye could be considered to provide data roughly equivalent to a 40 megapixel color image and grayscale 6 megapixel. So ~5 times a 4k image.

Edit: And even that actually over estimates the amount of data the brain is actually processing. A 4k 60 fps video is handled by 6Gbps and the human optic nerve only has roughly 8.75Mbps of bandwidth.

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#382

One thing I would love someone to explain is how can people assume cars are going to be automated soon when both planes and trains haven't been automated for various reasons. They are different issues I have gathered but essentially shouldn't trains be dead simple but to this day at least the trains(not metras though) often have someone to stop the train in case of emergencies. Planes are more complex but have lower…

Also: where are the self-driving attorneys? A very constrained problem domain where all the answers can be looked up in books, prior cases etc. Vastly expensive human drivers needs at present. No chance of killing anyone. We should have armies of automated lawyers already, no?

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#383
post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that audio recognition is an order of magnitude less complicated than fully autonomous driving. The world is fully contextless outside the road to an not-even-at-insect-level brain driving two tons of metal, and anything can happen. Voice recognition is getting just barely tolerable. If you have tried to do something important using voice recognition you'd probably go bat shit crazy after a while. If it had t…

I think Wonderful.

Would you please not do this here? We're trying for at least a slightly higher quality level on HN. One thing that helps is not to assume stupidity in the other; we even added a new guideline recently to say that. More diplomatically though.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#384
post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Planes have been automated to some degree for 100 years. Fully automating a plane at the equivalent of Level 5 is almost a trivial problem compared to doing so with cars. The reason planes aren't automated is mostly social, not technical. Whereas with cars it's decidedly both.

Planes aren't automated mostly for technical and infrastructural reasons, the exact opposite of what you stated. The social worry of pilotless airplanes inhibits the massive investment that would be required to solve the technical and infrastructure limitations of the existing system.

There are very few technical and infrastructure issues remaining. No such investment is necessary.

https://jonathannen.com/captain-ai.html

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That being said, Toyota's (and Subaru's) approach is the smart way forward - add sensors and capabilities that augment the human, but leave the human always responsible and in control. In order for a crash to happen, the human AND the machine BOTH have to miss it. That's the approach we know won't work. That was Tesla's first-round autopilot, the self-crashing car. The one that would happily run into obstacles protru…

Tesla took the opposite approach of what I described (the Subaru approach). Tesla took the approach that the machine is in control and the human has to detect and take over when the machine makes a mistake. That is known to be a very problematic strategy, it's easy for the human to get distracted. What Subaru has done is to leave the human in control, the machine only steps in when it sees a problem. It's totally dif…

Yes they are different. They are also WILDLY different value propositions. Crash prevention is nice, just getting safer and safer is nice--though I personally wouldn't stop driving ~$5k cars for even "really good" crash protection.

But a car that can drive me while I sleep and become a Taxi while I work is something I would go into debt for.

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are many automotive "auto-brake" systems, usually controlled by a radar. Those are useful. They're usually programmed to act only when a collision is inevitable. They prevent some slow-speed collisions, and reduce the damage in some faster ones. What they don't do is take over steering. A last-second takeover of steering would make things worse some of the time.

> What they don't do is take over steering. A last-second takeover of steering would make things worse some of the time. I have a Honda. While its lane-keeping system won't steer during a crash, it definitely does steer to keep you centered in the lane (when it's able). That could help avoid all kinds of crashes due to inattentive lane-drifting.

Is it less fatiguing?

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And it's also called "Autopilot" which sets an extremely different tone and expectation than other driver-assistance/safety technologies.

> And it's also called "Autopilot" which sets an extremely different tone and expectation than other driver-assistance/safety technologies. Only to those not familiar with autopilot systems in aircraft. It's like the use of "hacker" - here on this site it still (probably) has most of it's original meaning. To the rest of the world it means a guy in a ski-mask with a russian/chinese accent who's after your bank accoun…

> most of the world thinks pilots in commercial aircraft turn on the autopilot and can then go for a sleep

They can go to sleep and the plane will continue to fly itself. However, if anyone found out they were sleeping heads would roll.

Autopilot electronics on a plane is trivial. Autopilot for a car is damn hard.

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#388

I've been saying this for a while. The problem is that people are mostly familiar with the rate of overcoming traditional technical challenges (e.g., making your current computer/phone more compact, improving graphics quality, making cameras and screens with more pixels, etc.). What people don't realize is that full autonomous driving will require more than just faster/smaller/cheaper technical innovation - it will r…

Intercontinental planes are mostly autonomous. Trains are autonomous. Massive mine dump trucks are fully autonomous. These things are in use today and has been for almost a decade. They need not be perfect to be useful, they only need to be better than the average human driver. Toyota is way behind in the game. What do you expect them to say about the competition?

All of those things have a team of engineers maintaining the hardware and configuration of each installation, and operate "on rails" (either GPS-defined or literal) in very carefully controlled environments.

It's like saying that we've had factory robotics for decades and so we should soon have useful robotic housekeepers (in the general sense, not the Roomba sense).

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And it's also called "Autopilot" which sets an extremely different tone and expectation than other driver-assistance/safety technologies.

> And it's also called "Autopilot" which sets an extremely different tone and expectation than other driver-assistance/safety technologies. Only to those not familiar with autopilot systems in aircraft. It's like the use of "hacker" - here on this site it still (probably) has most of it's original meaning. To the rest of the world it means a guy in a ski-mask with a russian/chinese accent who's after your bank accoun…

>Unfortunately most of the world thinks pilots in commercial aircraft turn on the autopilot and can then go for a sleep

They can go for a sleep though.

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#390
I will start paying attention to self-driving hype when they make cars that can drive themselves in Alaskan snowstorm. Until then it's just California-only decoy for companies that make their money on shit smart people don't want to work on.
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