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The Software Revolution

blog.samaltman.com

371–380 of 397 posts

Re: The Software Revolution

#371
post #355
post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm fairly convinced that eventually there will be two and only two choices: universal income and a shortened work week, or such extreme wealth divisions that stability demands a totalitarian police state resembling the worst sort of comic book cyberpunk dystopia. Age of abundance or feudal hellhole. Your pick. There simply will not be enough economically viable work to sustain any system that demands labor to mainta…

Another option is self-enforced population decline (already happening in many developed countries) - for now it's artificaly solved by immigration from not-so-well developed countries, but this will stop at some point.

While I see legitimate reasons to reduce population, that won't solve this problem. In fact it might make it worse.

While the future economy will be heavily automated, it will still be an economy. Declining demand will still do ugly things to it. It's likely that a drop in demand will do more to squeeze out human labor than machine labor, since the former is more expensive and in a declining economy everyone tries to squeeze margin.

Re: The Software Revolution

#372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I took a look at those articles and they don't support the position with sufficient authority or evidence. Consider two charts from those two blogs - chart from blog 2 shows the contribution to global GDP of India and China. Chart 1 from blog 1 shows how growth spiked by 1820 onwards. Even if we take the data into consideration without question, 1857 is the year when the revolt of 1857 took place in India, and the Br…

I didn't say wealth wouldn't have been higher if colonization didn't occur, though I'm definitely unconvinced of that. I merely said that growth did occur everywhere. Logically we know that a fair market creates more wealth for all who participate. Given that this was a perversion of these ideals... We don't know this. The relevant counterfactual is not a perfect free market, but whatever the assorted kings of India…

Sorry, I have information which would be useful I'm aware that there were merchant communities in the kingdoms that would became India who did and we're looking into looms and technologies.

Since Britain was also monarchical, so the equation is - relatively- balanced.

Re: The Software Revolution

#373
post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Age of abundance or feudal hellhole. Why not both? We certainly have all kinds of societies on earth today. What makes you think we won't have areas that are highly progressive but also areas that are extremely sadistic in the treatment of their people?

An intersting thought experiment is to compare their economic output. If feudal hellhole is more efficient eventually only hellholes will remain.

"If feudal hellhole is more efficient eventually only hellholes will remain."

Probably true. Evolution is amoral. If suffering has higher fitness, suffering wins. Just look at the ordeal that is human birth and infancy, for both mother and baby.

Re: The Software Revolution

#375

I disagree with this: "The previous one, the industrial revolution, created lots of jobs" That industrial revolution caused massive unemployment in India, in the Ottoman empire, in China... almost everywhere that had once been a famous textile center. The idea that the industrial revolution did not cause unemployment is an illusion that is caused by looking at only one nation state. But Britain was the winner of the…

> And because of this, a breathtaking gap opened up between wages in the West and wages everywhere else. The so-called Third World was summoned into existence. Just picking a nit, but the Third World came into existence during the Cold War, long after the industrial revolution. Third world countries are countries that were non-aligned or neutral during the Cold War. http://www.wikiwand.com/en/Third_World

I like how Sweden is a third-world country according to that definition.

But seriously, I don't think that's how people use this term any more. It's just a synonym for developing country by now.

I also like this definition from Urban Dictionary: "Any country that owes rolls of money to the IMF and the World Bank."

Re: The Software Revolution

#376
post #290

There are so many things wrong with this essay -- it combines a Marxist-inspired call for redistribution of wealth in the name of egalitarianism (are there specific individuals who will control how much we are allowed to own?), fear of change in what people do for a living (are people too exploited and too stupid to adapt?), and fear of technological progress in private hands (does the State, or some other supra-coll…

We already have massive (forced) redistribution of wealth in the form of corporate welfare. Tariffs, patents, copyrights, land grants, competition-prohibiting regulation, direct subsidies, indirect subsidization of capital inputs via compulsory state education, roads, communication infrastructure, etc, etc, etc. I fully agree with you that government intervention hinders technological progress, derails economic progr…

I also support the abolition of corporate welfare as a first step. After that, there will be time to talk about other forms of welfare. But that's not what Sam's Marxist-inspired essay is advocating, on the contrary.

Re: The Software Revolution

#377

Can someone ELI5-with-a-CS-degree why I should be concerned about AI ending human life?

Note: The not ELI5 version is Nick Bostrum's Superintelligence , a lot of what follows derives from my idiosyncratic understanding of Tim Urban's (waitbutwhy) summary of the situation [0]. I think his explanation is much better than mine, but doubtless longer. There are some humans who are a lot smarter than a lot of other humans. For example, the mathematician Ramanujan could do many complicated infinite sums in his…

> AI systems, if they can be said to "want" things

Honestly asking, why would they? I dont see the obvious answer

>Imagine that the AI system has a really bad addiction problem to that.

Again, i just don't get this. How would an AI get addicted? Why wouldn't it research addiction and fix itself to no longer be addicted? That is behavior i would expect from an intelligence greater than our own, rather than indulgence

>Take over human factories and turn them into cat picture manufacturing?

Why in the world would it do this? Why wouldn't it just generate digital images of cats on its own?

Really interesting post, thanks!

Re: The Software Revolution

#378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note: The not ELI5 version is Nick Bostrum's Superintelligence , a lot of what follows derives from my idiosyncratic understanding of Tim Urban's (waitbutwhy) summary of the situation [0]. I think his explanation is much better than mine, but doubtless longer. There are some humans who are a lot smarter than a lot of other humans. For example, the mathematician Ramanujan could do many complicated infinite sums in his…

> AI systems, if they can be said to "want" things Honestly asking, why would they? I dont see the obvious answer >Imagine that the AI system has a really bad addiction problem to that. Again, i just don't get this. How would an AI get addicted? Why wouldn't it research addiction and fix itself to no longer be addicted? That is behavior i would expect from an intelligence greater than our own, rather than indulgence…

> Again, i just don't get this. How would an AI get addicted? Why wouldn't it research addiction and fix itself to no longer be addicted?

Why wouldn't a natural intelligence with an addiction do that?

Re: The Software Revolution

#379

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's a symptom of a different bigger problem: that vestiges of the caste systems once pervasive in India (and indeed much of the world) for the last several millennia are still very present. The belief that "those darn workers exist to do manual labor, so we should come to expect that they'll always want to do manual labor and - therefore - we should provide such opportunities" is a rather clear manifestation…

I am an Indian, and have always lived in India. And, in several parts of India too! The problem of caste is certainly visible in multiple aspects of Indian life. However, what you say above is no longer true, even at the level of most villages (where the caste systems work stronger). The issues of automating jobs and the resulting unemployment in a country like India, are both deeper and broader than your characteriz…

You may very well be right; I am looking at this from thousands of miles away, after all! And I'm sure everyone here would enjoy hearing your perspective on it, seeing as much of Hacker News (I'd reckon) is in a similar boat.

That said, it should be understandable why I'd take your comment with a skeptical grain of salt. Slave-owners in the Southern United States (something which I'm in much closer proximity to, though perhaps not temporally) typically had a lot of justifications for owning slaves, ranging from "We're helping them establish a modern culture!" to "We're introducing them to God and Jesus!" to "They like to work; they were bred for it!" to "We treat them pretty well, actually!" (this was a blatant lie in many cases, mind you) to "What else would they do if we were to not give them work to do?". Similar justifications persisted throughout the days of the Jim Crow laws and their ilk; even after slavery had been abolished once and for all, the now-free black populace was - in the South - rarely (if ever) encouraged to deviate from manual agrarian labor, since that was popularly believed to be their "place". The Civil War was indeed a pretty powerful wake-up call to the ways where the North's automated/streamlined manufacturing and agriculture - using machines instead of men - mopped the metaphorical floor with Southern slave-driven manual labor, but it took a long time for the South to fully realize that.

Today, the United States is still dealing with high unemployment rates of various minorities - including blacks. This is likely caused by automation in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors. It sucks for those who don't have jobs in the short term, but - ultimately - it'll encourage those who were previously stuck with factory and farm jobs at best to seek educational financial assistance (which is available for low-income households) and work their way into better careers. I'll take that - along with the bit of ultimately-temporary unemployment caused by it - over blacks and Hispanics (among other minorities; Asian immigrants were victims of this as well, but a large-enough portion of the Asian-American population eventually managed to achieve white-collar jobs and top-tier academic performance that the public view has shifted in the other direction entirely) being treated as if manual labor is the only thing they're good for.

You can't blame me for seeing the parallels here. If India is willing to burn money on giving people menial busy-work for the sake of "employment", it should be more willing to instead burn money on giving those people subsidized education and placement into more modernized roles (like operating or maintaining the machines which replaced their old jobs, for example). The reluctance to do so indicates - to me at least, as someone who can relate his own experiences to this - a cultural or societal unwillingness to allow them to do so; the reasons for not doing so are certainly not ones grounded in rationality or economic common sense, which thus implies a more emotional line of thought.

Re: The Software Revolution

#380
post #329

I disagree with this: "The previous one, the industrial revolution, created lots of jobs" That industrial revolution caused massive unemployment in India, in the Ottoman empire, in China... almost everywhere that had once been a famous textile center. The idea that the industrial revolution did not cause unemployment is an illusion that is caused by looking at only one nation state. But Britain was the winner of the…

I'm fairly convinced that eventually there will be two and only two choices: universal income and a shortened work week, or such extreme wealth divisions that stability demands a totalitarian police state resembling the worst sort of comic book cyberpunk dystopia. Age of abundance or feudal hellhole. Your pick. There simply will not be enough economically viable work to sustain any system that demands labor to mainta…

> I suppose there is a third option: an anti-technology crusade that bans automation to restore employment. But a make-work economy sucks, and is not likely to succeed in the long term.

That is, unless we start harvesting magic dust from some desert planet with really big omnivorous worms.

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