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Elon Musk: To the People of New Jersey

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Re: Elon Musk: To the People of New Jersey

#371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also just think; how long did it take for the first iphone jailbreaks to come out, cydia for your car. Alternately replaceable ROM's for your car a la android. Where there is a closed eco system there are 100 people just staring at their computers until they figure out how to break it wide open.

cydia for your car. Just what my car is missing, fifty thousand anime ringtones and a SNES emulator with all-you-can-eat ROMs.

Yeah definitely, the whole statement played alot more sarcastic if you were sitting with me in the office.

Re: Elon Musk: To the People of New Jersey

#372
post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, it sounds ludicrous. But there are plenty of ludicrous instances in the EU where free trade gets banned by some stupid law legalizing a monopoly. As much as I'd like it to be, the EU is hardly perfect in this.

What makes it ludicrous is how much noise US politicians on the right make about "free market" and how they vilify "socialism" then turn around and pass legislation that implements massive market-distortions. It's basically massive demagoguery and corruption.

So true. If conservative talking points would concatenate the String s = "except when it favors the 1%," they'd reflect reality.

"Free market regulation is bad for the economy " + s

"Government services are handouts and immoral " + s

etc. etc.

Re: Elon Musk: To the People of New Jersey

#373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Compare a Macbook Pro with a custom built Linux desktop. The MBP is very user friendly, plug n play, and has very little customization capacity. The custom Linux desktop is an absolute tinkerer's paradise, with everything from hardware to software being open for customization. It's not fair to say Macs are less customizable or less of a tinkerer's paradise just because they are more user friendly.

I think it's fair to say that. In my opinion, Linux wins on kernel configuration options alone. Would you like a tickless kernel? Soft real-time? Hard real-time? A different scheduler, may be?

It's pretty easy to boot Linux on a Mac.

Re: Elon Musk: To the People of New Jersey

#374
post #214

> all Tesla Model S vehicles are capable of over-the-air updates to upgrade the software, just like your phone or computer It's an interesting future. We are approaching the age of malware infected cars. Does anyone have more info about what the limitations of this internet connected system is? What is possible if someone roots my car? - Can they disable security system? - Unlock the car? Lock me out of the car? - Fe…

Hopefully those updates are signed, in which case as long as there aren't user install-able applications it should be fine.

Re: Elon Musk: To the People of New Jersey

#375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> Politicians will counter that gas taxes are unpalatable for political reasons What does that mean (in plain language)? Why should people accept it as an excuse for not choosing the more efficient solution?

It isn't about what people should accept, it's about what they will accept. Voters aren't rational, and they're more likely to kick up a fuss about fuel taxes than vehicle taxes because it affects more of them in the short term. Maybe taxes on vehicles are more likely to be passed, and not much worse than taxes on fuel. In that case they may be worthwhile as a compromise solution. They're certainly not a better solut…

> Voters aren't rational

Huh? Voters are quite rational. If you mean they don't pay attention to everything that's happening in Washington, D.C. or state capitols, that's perfectly rational. (Remember you're more likely to win the lottery than to have your vote changing the outcome of an election.) Economics call this, correctly, "rational ignorance" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rational_ignorance

Politicians and bureaucrats are also rational. Unfortunately this rationality means they put their private interests above the public interest (whatever that means). The influence of special interest groups, the revolving door between .gov and lobbying, these are all elements of it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_choice

Re: Elon Musk: To the People of New Jersey

#376
post #359
post #282

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Right, it's actually the job of the legislature to try and pass laws and create regulations to advantage their market over external competitors -- even if that means creating local monopolies. It sucks that New Jersey has to think of California as a competitor (after all, aren't California and New Jersey domestic territories of the same country?), but resources are finite. And if you, as a legislator, think bringing…

> Tesla wants to maximize the profit share they see from the car sales While true, it's also universally true of just about everything. Yes, using resellers/dealers/etc. means that you have to give them a slice of "your" money. It also frees you from having the scale up the infrastructure and employees yourself. Which is why franchise models (either pure or blended) are so popular. I suspect the more pressing motivat…

> I suspect the more pressing motivation is that Musk wants to have complete freedom to do things his way without filtering by a middleman who would likely be strongly influenced by the way that auto dealers have historically operated.

Ding ding ding. In this respect, the HN hive-mind is pretty schizo. Are you a phone company and trying to protect your profits? Burn them at the stake!

Are you a popular technologist who builds rocket ships on the side and are trying to protect your profits? Cheer him on!

> I suspect a lot of folks are underestimating the degree to which Tesla will have to provide local services that look a lot like a dealership as it scales up and certainly as it introduces cars at more mainstream price points. For example, you need service centers--as they are building out today.

That's also true. I'm not sure what the ratio of service center employees per Tesla vs. traditional automobiles. My guess is that you'll have to bring your Tesla back to the dealer for most maintenance needs, while I can bring my regular old family sedan to whatever gas station/service center is down the street.

We don't even know what the used car ecosystem for Tesla's will look like. Will anybody really want to buy a car they have to put a few grand of new batteries into? Will there be a used car service center ecosystem in place? When can I walk into the local Pepboys and buy a new sprocket or cog set for my Tesla? Never? Then bye bye Pepboys.

The network effects which contribute to the overall size of the auto industry, which is far more than just the manufacturers, is a pretty significant part of the overall economy in a given area. What will this ecosystem look like in 25 years with hyper sophisticated self-driving Tesla-likes all over the road? My guess is that it will be devastating to the system that's there even if an all new ecosystem replaces it. It's not a 1-to-1 map. People won't make the transition and that's a problem governments care about.

Re: Elon Musk: To the People of New Jersey

#377
post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who actually lobbies for it? I can't imagine that gas station attendants themselves have much sway, and I don't see why station owners would want to keep it that way. Is it just regular old people in Portland who honestly believe it is best, even without any lobbying or propaganda?

People aren't smart. They like full-service, and they know it'd disappear if it wasn't the law. What they don't realise is that the reason it'd disappear is that they don't like it enough to pay extra for it. The stations themselves might not be against full-service, either (at least away from state borders.) It's an extra cost, true, but it's paid by all of their competitors, too, so it just drives prices up. Demand…

Alternatively, it could be that people do like full service enough to pay for this, but act irrationally at the pump, not the ballot box. I.e. people undervalue their own comfort and do things themselves because the idea of paying more seems so objectionable.

This has occurred to me with airlines as well - we relentlessly optimise for cheap flights, and then complain that we're crammed in to tiny seats while flight attendants hawk duty free goods to us. Maybe we'd actually be happier if the cheapest flights were actually 50% more expensive and nicer, even though that's not what we choose.

Re: Elon Musk: To the People of New Jersey

#378

Paternalistic meddling with free consumer choices is always fraught with peril. Sometimes it is necessary to protect important principles in society. You can't discriminate based on race - that limits choice but who would support the contrary? You can't defraud people in selling products - ditto. You can't buy land to build a smokestack plant in a quiet residential neighborhood - ditto. Many other examples might be c…

New Jersey has a lot of these strange laws. They also force you to have full service at the gas station. The lobbies force the issue.

Yeah, last time I filled up in NJ one of the attendants was smoking at the pumps. Never been so nervous!

Re: Elon Musk: To the People of New Jersey

#379
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

while "superior" is subjective, i agree it's best to let the market decide naturally, instead of putting up barriers...

Things like the Consumer Reports ratings and the Motor Trend "Car of the year" award are pretty objective. You're right that it's subjective, but there's empirical evidence that a lot of people feel it's superior.

I dont trust either. I dont know who paid off who to get a good rating. ;-) And who knows what biases are there in the reviewer?

Besides, I may not purchase a vehicle based on any of the same factors as the average person that these ratings/awards are targeted to. To some people a car has to have a certain feel. How much more subjective can that be?

It's like product reviews on the internet. Almost wish they didn't exist they're so fake most of the time. we digress...

The quality of awards/ratings aside, that shouldn't even matter here. Tesla or any other manufacturer should be able to sell directly to the consumer if that's the way the two parties want to do business. I can buy apple products directly from Apple and not have to go through Best Buy or anyone else. Why do cars have to be different, still, in 2014?

Re: Elon Musk: To the People of New Jersey

#380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, economists will argue that gasoline taxes are a more efficient and effective way of getting what we want (an efficient amount of gasoline consumption that accounts for its external costs). Politicians will counter that gas taxes are unpalatable for political reasons, so we have to do something else that's kinda like an indirect gas tax (reduces consumption, makes using it more expensive). I'm open to arguments a…

>> Politicians will counter that gas taxes are unpalatable for political reasons What does that mean (in plain language)? Why should people accept it as an excuse for not choosing the more efficient solution?

Infrastructure and people's lives have been organised around today's tax regime. America's historically low gas prices mean houses, jobs and retail are spread out over more area, and public transport is comparatively poor.

If gas prices trebled tomorrow, you'll find a lot of hard-working poor people who have to pay three times as much to get to their low-paying jobs.

There will be sob stories on the news about regular people people who can't afford to move closer to work (houses there are expensive now due to high demand) and who can't afford a more efficient car (as they can't pay off the loan on their SUV which is now worth less than the loan value).

Maybe some young people get fuel efficient motorbikes, like in the developing world. There's a rise in road deaths, of course; everyone knows motorbikes are dangerous.

And it won't just be people commuting to work. It'll be more expensive to get to the shops for food - bicycling or walking isn't an option for the hard-working american mother who has to shop for the family, and who has a newborn baby to look after (which is what your political opponents' attack ads will show).

And how do you think that food gets to the shop? On a gas-powered truck of course. And farm machines run on gas as well. Order everything online? The delivery truck runs on gas. You get your trash picked up? Someone's paying to gas up the truck. You're doing construction? Those backhoes and generators all run on gas. Tradespeople like plumbers and builders? Can't carry that roofing ladder on a bus you know. Fire trucks, police cars, ambulances? Gee, I guess they all run on gas. Buses and removal trucks? Same thing. It costs so much to get Jenny to soccer practice now, and how is little Jimmy supposed to get his double bass to after-school orchestra?

Now everything is more expensive, and everyone has less disposable income. People have to get by with less, so they don't go to the restaurant, they make the old car last a few years longer, and the restaurant and car plant have to lay people off, and you've triggered another recession.

Meanwhile, your busy job as a legislator means you still get driven everywhere, so you come across looking like a huge hypocrite.

Now you've put a regressive tax on getting to work, you've caused a rise in traffic accidents, you're anti-family, you've raised the prices of everything, you've triggered a recession, and you're a hypocrite. In exchange you've got the support of the green lobby, but many of them are having second thoughts.

Good luck with your re-election campaign.

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