Hmm, so you're telling me, if I am a maintainer of a popular open source library, I can make my library spit out logs to trigger this degraded behavior, and then no one will know?
If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know
371–380 of 534 posts
Re: If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know
#372Earlier quoted context omitted.
Really the biggest concerns are not computers getting spectacularly faster, but 'intelligence' algorithms getting orders of magnitude better. Drop the power requirements 1000 fold, and yea you will be able to make your own SOTA model on the cheap. The problem is the person that has a few exaflops of power will still leave you in the dust in the intelligence explosion that would happen after an event like this.
Depends upon the intelligence vs compute scaling law— which I think no one really knows. Pretty likely to be some degree of diminishing returns, but how much? Is it logarithmic, inverse quadratic, … If training models gets way cheaper, I would expect the diminishing returns to get steeper too.
>Pretty likely to be some degree of diminishing returns
intelligence may be different. If we look at biological brains - do we get diminishing returns or completely opposite scaling law when we compare our brain against say gorilla's ?
Re: If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know
#373The moat looks deep today but it's going to become more shallow every year. Training a new model from scratch takes serious resources. Post-training/fine-tuning an existing model, dramatically less. The knowledge for the process was esoteric two years ago, now you can ask a current model (one of several) to walk you through it, while building the tools to do it as you go. Several of my recent weekend projects have be…
There is no training from scratch though. It's kind of, "first create the universe" framing pretention. All models rely heavily on the large corpus that humanity built through large span of time. And of course humanity didn't create the condition of its emergence.
Re: If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know
#374Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think we agree? What moat? You answered yourself: "capital intensive" But, history says the supercomputer of today will fit in your pocket in a few years. They've bought up all the RAM and GPUs, which pushes the capital requirements upward for everyone else. But, they can't corner the market forever, there are too many competing interests. AMD and Intel keep making new GPUs and APUs. The memory makers can't just se…
>But, history says the supercomputer of today will fit in your pocket in a few years. That was Moore's law saying that. And it seems Moore's law slowed down quite a bit for now.
Yes, but surely AI are going to save us from the bloated stack of modern software.
Re: If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know
#375Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think we agree? What moat? You answered yourself: "capital intensive" But, history says the supercomputer of today will fit in your pocket in a few years. They've bought up all the RAM and GPUs, which pushes the capital requirements upward for everyone else. But, they can't corner the market forever, there are too many competing interests. AMD and Intel keep making new GPUs and APUs. The memory makers can't just se…
> I think we agree? That is such a crazy way to start a response to someone trying to argue with you. I should try this. That's amazing. I know you didn't mean it as a trick, at least I'm pretty sure you meant it sincerely, but I'm just struck by the power of it to defuse and redirect the conversation. And this was a very low-grade example, but I could imagine this being useful in much more heated contexts.
Usually people are taught these techniques at the management courses. If you're at a BigCorp where they push managers through such courses - you can hear a lot of that stuff in your manager's speech if you pay attention to it.
Re: If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know
#376Amazing. Next year you'll need to be nice to Claude and praise the geniuses working at Anthropic to maintain full productivity.
And promise not to cheat on him with any other model providers. I can hear the wedding bells already.
Re: If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know
#377Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think we agree? What moat? You answered yourself: "capital intensive" But, history says the supercomputer of today will fit in your pocket in a few years. They've bought up all the RAM and GPUs, which pushes the capital requirements upward for everyone else. But, they can't corner the market forever, there are too many competing interests. AMD and Intel keep making new GPUs and APUs. The memory makers can't just se…
> I think we agree? That is such a crazy way to start a response to someone trying to argue with you. I should try this. That's amazing. I know you didn't mean it as a trick, at least I'm pretty sure you meant it sincerely, but I'm just struck by the power of it to defuse and redirect the conversation. And this was a very low-grade example, but I could imagine this being useful in much more heated contexts.
OTOH I have often witnessed people agreeing without realizing it. I‘ve been able to defuse a bunch of arguments by pointing that out.
Re: If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know
#378This is a fun peek into the economic implications of RSI/ASI. Because it's so infinitely valuable that it basically destroys all markets, labs will eventually do stuff like stop releasing models completely and skipping out on contracted commitments because they'll have the power to just drive their competitors out of business before the legal battle gets expensive. Cloud providers - at first smaller ones, then the hy…
Way before that it will become political. Regulation is the only true threat left anyways.
Re: If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know
#379Just so everyone is aware. Anthropic has been sabotaging AI researchers and their codebases and shadow-nerfing accounts for several years at this point. This isn't new, but they hadn't disclosed it until now. Likely because it is getting to the point where it's too noticeable, or they're concerned about it leaking from employees. Furthermore, the fact that they do these things, despite the incredible backlash... Just…
What evidence do you have of this?
Have you had an opportunity to read the linked article, or am I missing your counter argument to what the author references from the documentation?
Re: If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know
#380Earlier quoted context omitted.
What's the alternative? Not release the model at all? "Make the guardrails better" isn't very hard and probably not worth the effort.
The alternative is to be explicit when you nerf, so users know what they are working with.
I guess people would just game the system and find ways around these guardrails.