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AI outperforms law professors in Stanford Law study

law.stanford.edu

371–380 of 384 posts

Re: AI outperforms law professors in Stanford Law study

#371
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IME so far (as both a lawyer and a software engineer), LLM error rates when drafting code and legal documents are reasonably comparable, but it's more problematic in the legal context because legal documents do not benefit from many of the structural safeguards available for code. For legal documents, there are no automated tests, no static typing, no test environments, no logging/observability instrumentation, no sa…

There is also one thing I would like to add, and you can correct me if you disagree: coding benefits much more from thorough planning. Now, I exclusively work by first writing a plan that has well-defined steps and goals, which can of course change over time. It seems to me like it would be more difficult to achieve with legal documents and, in my experience at least, writing a concrete plan has been the decisive fac…

I'm not sure about that, I actually think planning may be just as important in both domains. Outlining before drafting is an almost universal best practice in legal writing that is drilled into law students to the point that outlining as exam prep is something students spend several weeks on each semester. So personally I always have a fairly detailed implementation plan in the form of an outline before I ask an LLM to draft a more detailed legal document.

I've also adopted an AI coding workflow that involves a lot of planning, although I actually write very little of the plan myself anymore. I have a chain of slash commands like this: create-issue -> plan-issue -> build-plan -> pr-into-dev. I write a relatively brief description of what I want accomplished to create the issue, and then the agent fleshes out my description with more detailed requirements and acceptance criteria. I review the issue description, and the LLM often identifies open questions I failed to consider, so I revise as necessary and then the agent posts the description to the GH issue. I have planning separated because I often create issues quickly when something occurs to me and then circle back at a later date to implement, and want the agent to create the concrete implementation plan with an up-to-date snapshot of the code in context. Then I review that again, adjusting as necessary, and then the agent posts the result as a comment on the original issue.

Like you, I've found this detailed planning makes for a very robust coding agent (again, also in combination with the aforementioned best practices, especially requiring 100% test coverage because forcing it to exercise every line of code avoids hallucinated dummy tests that assert on nothing). Interestingly in comparison to legal writing, I also rely on the agent to decompose complex tasks into separate issues or subissues as appropriate, which is something that is never necessary for legal analysis because pretty much every every legal analysis can be one-shotted.

For legal writing, my workflow is nowhere near as structured as that. For context, I have only ever used LLMs for drafting what are effectively emails to clients or memoranda of law for clients that are a step up in complexity and formality from an email. So not something that will be filed with a court necessarily but very much in the same format and style as a formal motion that would be submitted to a court on behalf of a client. And never a contract, will, or judicial opinion, nor a communication with a counterparty like a demand letter or C&D. So YMMV for other types of legal writing.

That said, I typically start drafting a memo by conversing casually with an agent to explore the general boundaries of an issue I am evaluating, by identifying relevant sources of law, potentially related issues, and the analytical process I need to follow (i.e., what issues to evaluate and what order to evaluate them in, more or the less the analytical "algorithm"). Once I have a good sense of that algorithm, I put together a high level outline and then ask the agent to draft a detailed memo around that outline. Or at least that's what I used to do before the last few months, since when the models have matured to the point where I increasingly just ask the agent to write the outline based on the conversation we had, then review that, then ask it to write the memo based on the outline.

As I have been writing this, it occurs to me that actually I am following almost the exact same process for writing code and for writing legal memos, and should probably distill the legal writing process into a similarly well-structured set of chained skills/slash commands. In both domains, I describe an issue at a high level, get the LLM to fill in some of the broad outline level details, review that, then get the LLM to implement the complete final product. (Also perhaps worth noting while I do occasionally conduct general high level research by talking to a frontier lab LLM, I have always used locally hosted OS/OW models for drafting memos where I need to provide concrete, specific factual information about clients to the LLM, to avoid attorney-client privilege issues, so the quality has lagged behind the frontier models, which is part of why I haven't developed this workflow into as structured of an approach as I have for coding).

In both coding and legal contexts, I think that this planning or outlining step is critical not (or not just) because it forces the agent to create a higher quality product, but because it forces me to review what I am asking the agent to do at a sufficiently detailed level that I can catch errors before they crop up in the implementation. A lot of the time, the errors that occur if I skip this step aren't because the LLM has made any clear mistake, but because I failed to specify some aspect of the task and the LLM is forced to guess at what I really intended, which is where agents often struggle.

So I guess I would tentatively suggest that legal writing does in fact benefit from thorough planning, though it is hard for me to quantify whether those benefits are greater or less than the comparable benefits for code.

Re: AI outperforms law professors in Stanford Law study

#372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More than that, the entire structure of the study is pointless. They set up as a question/response and then had humans rate the response. That's literally what LLM's are trained to do, which ultimately is convincing a human to click the "I like this one better" button on it's response.

This is kind of like saying you can't compare Computer Vision models to Human performance because those models were literally trained to identify objects in images...

I'm not saying you can't compare them, I'm saying it's pointless. LLM's are extremely large scale multivariate regression machines, evaluating it's output within it's own training domain is as pointless as seeing if a ball rolls downhill.

Re: AI outperforms law professors in Stanford Law study

#373

I find this study quite suspect. I'd have to dive deeper but there's definitely significant alarm bells that should be going off for anyone reading. Figure 2 (page 6) screams problems. There's only 16 professors (3k comparisons each?!?!) and the professors are all over the place. That's very high variance, suggesting the study has no meaningful statistical power. Poor instructor 16 can't catch a break lol There's als…

Sure, but in two years AI has gone from “impressive tool, but not a replacement for knowledge workers” to “the study where it beats our highest caliber of knowledge workers may have some methodological deficits.” In another two years it’s going to be curtains.

I mean, my shoe could beat the highest caliber of knowledge workers with enough methodological deficits.

Re: AI outperforms law professors in Stanford Law study

#374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, I know what you mean. If the parties are only breezing over the motion then it looks great and 95% of the time you'll get away with it, even though really it's ethically dubious. And that's a super hard one for a human to catch when reviewing LLM output. Especially because (certainly for me) you tend to get lazier and lazier reviewing the LLM output as they get "smarter." I'm assuming you've just used some off…

I have tested Lexis AI once for a legal research point. I wasn't particularly keen on putting the exact details of an actual problem in, but I gave it a summary version. It didn't feel drastically different from using ChatGPT with the ability to search the web, except it was searching material on Lexis, both statute/case law and commentary. It dug out some commentary that confirmed my prior hunches, but also pointed…

OK, sounds like they've basically done nothing more than attach an MCP with all the case law. I was hoping all that cash they make from monetizing the commons would be used to at least create a decent legal LLM.

It'll take another company eating their lunch for them to wake up.

Re: AI outperforms law professors in Stanford Law study

#375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming it keeps improving at the same rate, which I think we are already seeing not play out. If you compare the first six months when GPT truly hit the mainstream to the previous six months, the improvements are not nearly as evident. That isn’t to say they aren’t noticeable, I could definitely tell it’s improving, but not nearly at the pace it once was. There’s also the fact that they can’t possibly keep improvin…

It doesn't even need to 'improve' at the same rate to have extraordinary impact in society. Even if the frontier models stayed roughly the same in cost and capability for just 1-2 years, the harnesses and processes built around them would mature. We have not yet metabolized these models. Frankly, a lot of this feels like late 80s early 90s complaints about how office computerization wasn't happening yet--it was, just…

> I just wish people would take a step back and think about the timescales here. Language Models are Unsupervised Multitask Learners was in 2019. Here we are seven years later and LOOK AROUND. The landscape is unrecognizable. It's worth thinking about who, in those seven years, had an accurate estimate of the future and whose estimate fundamentally failed. And just as it is valuable to note where propaganda about progress speeds past where we are, we should remember that it is costless to announce that at some unspecified future time all of this will settle down and things will go back to the way they were.

People can understand all this and still disagree with you.

Re: AI outperforms law professors in Stanford Law study

#376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your “some methodological deficits” is doing a lot of work.

What if the methodological deficits are actually causing the paper to underestimate the quality of the AI responses? Why assume any deficits would bias the AI's competence upwards instead of downwards?

Why not assume the AI is god and the rapture is happening tomorrow?

Re: AI outperforms law professors in Stanford Law study

#377

In general it is not surprising. Even if this particular study is bad. There are certain areas of law work that are about analyzing large amounts of texts, drawing conclusions and writing other texts based on that and nothing more. That is literally the bread of LLMs. Those types of lawyers should be the first in line for unemployment, not programmers, not even close.

> analyzing large amounts of texts, drawing conclusions and writing other texts based on that and nothing more The same could be said about programming. Or if you want to be even more reductive, looking at a screen and pressing buttons to make the correct lights light up https://xkcd.com/722/

Oh wow, did Randall Munroe inadvertently predict the employee workload in the show Severance? :)

Re: AI outperforms law professors in Stanford Law study

#378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They’re not good at it because they understand the law

IRDC if the LLMs "understand" anything. They are being used here to produce outputs that are desirable. (Neglecting the real possibility that this "survey" is complete BS, as noted elsewhere.)

Exactly

Re: AI outperforms law professors in Stanford Law study

#379
post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And you stand to lose your job and your identity as a programmer. He makes billions but he already is a billionaire. Gaining billions more doesn't mean shit. The guy really has nothing to lose and the utility of what he gains contribute little to his life style. I will tell you this. HN has been comically wrong about everything related to AI. They said driverless cars have no chance of becoming useable. Now Tesla FSD…

> Gaining billions more doesn't mean shit. The guy really has nothing to lose and the utility of what he gains contribute little to his life style. You don’t become a billionaire because you aren’t committed to making a number go up far after you no longer have any significant unmet needs. He’s spending his life focused on business deals because that’s what he cares most about — if his true love was science, philanth…

Yeah an extra billion is nice. But they're not going through an crisis where there primary skill as a programmer is about to be annihilated.

Everyone on HN is in denial. A billionaire may or may not lie for business reasons. But their situation is nowhere near as critical as you or I.

Re: AI outperforms law professors in Stanford Law study

#380

I'm going to need some legal help for my startup. But I can't pay much. So I figured I will ask AI all relevant questions, as well as forms filled etc. Perhaps even create a patent-application for me. THEN I find a human lawyer and give AI's answers to them and say "Can you find any errors in this? Can you improve it?" . That way I think my legal bills should be smaller because the AI has already done most of the wor…

I think that within a few years, most lawyers will expect that clients will have run contracts through an LLM prior to sending them to outside counsel. Emails will be along the lines of: Please see attached contract we received from [counterparty]. ChatGPT says blah, blah and blah should be revised. What do you think? Is there anything else that we should change?

> most lawyers will expect that clients will have run contracts through an LLM prior

and if clients won't do LLM as their last step, lawyers will do LLM as their first step ... probably both

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