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DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

jeffgeerling.com

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Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#371

Post by karimf »

reenorap wrote: post #314
nl wrote: post #165

In the Dwarkesh podcast with Semi-Analysis's Dylan Patel they forecast the phone market will shrink by 50% this year because of RAM prices: But that’s the high end of the market, which is only a few hundred million phones a year. Apple sells two or three hundred million phones annually. The bulk of the market is mid-range and low-end. It used to be that 1.4 billion smartphones were sold a year. Now we’re at about 1.1…

This is an extinction event for the low-cost cell phone companies. How are they going to survive if they can't sell their $100 phones profitably for 2 years? I think many of the low-end companies will simply sell their allocations of RAM and close up shop.

This is huge problem for developing countries. Most people here have $100-$200 phones. iPhone is a luxury.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#372

Post by bigfatkitten »

gzread wrote: post #320
tombert wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> AI is the best thing I've seen in 30 years working in software and expensive RAM for 2 years is a price I think is worth it. I think generative AI is pretty neat, but I'm not sure it's worth the RAM increases. I use Claude like everyone else does, and it's cool, but I am a little concerned at how much absolute low-effort crap is being produced with it. It has made YouTube considerably worse; there was already a lot…

New Chinese vendors are scaling up, seeing the opportunity for large profits. Prediction: in 5 years half the market will be Chinese brands

Assuming the bubble doesn’t pop first.

It’s amazing how quickly people forget why we only have a handful of DRAM manufacturers in the first place.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#374

Post by throwaway2037 »

nullbyte808 wrote: post #312
est31 wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This one might last longer. The AI race is on, and the US tries its best to make it as expensive for China as possible to participate in it. Every dollar China spends on GPUs they get at markup is one not spent on building navy ships. If there is an escalation over Taiwan, then that will cause the loss of most of the world's high grade chip manufacturing capacity. TSMC is busy doing technology transfers into the US,…

Hypothetically what would happen if China took over Tawain and TSMC?

It will incredibly hard for China to conquer Taiwan. One hundred kilometers across the straits introduces a brutal geographic hurdle. If anything, the fabs will probably be severely damaged in the war. Plus most senior execs and elite engineers would be moved to US offices in Arizona.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#375

Post by wqaatwt »

tempest_ wrote: post #313
bombcar wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It blows my mind that a Pi is a significant portion of the cost of it.

The Pi isnt a loss leader for user acquisition nor do they get to enjoy Apples economy of scale. Apple can take a small loss on this and it will still be worth it if they retain the users in their ecosystem.

Is there any evidence that’s the case? They always had massively bigger margins than all other PC manufacturers so it’s unlikely they are selling it at a loss even if’s significantly reduced

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#376

Post by yread »

alsetmusic wrote: post #328
reenorap wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an extinction event for the low-cost cell phone companies. How are they going to survive if they can't sell their $100 phones profitably for 2 years? I think many of the low-end companies will simply sell their allocations of RAM and close up shop.

This is my greatest concern. So many small players will be wiped out. Consolidation is assured. Always great for consumers to be under the thumb of increasingly large companies.

Are there really that many small players? Aren't they all just subbrands of Xiaomi, Lenovo and Oppo?

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#377

Post by michaelt »

throwaway2037 wrote: post #364
pseudohadamard wrote: post #343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Will it be such a big deal though? Currently people are swapping out their phones for another model that's exactly the same but with a different number at the end of the name every 12 months. This could just mean that the unnecessary churn dies down a bit, and companies taking advantage of it have to find a new line of business.

This comment makes no sense to me. I exclusively use very low-end phones from Xiaomi. I buy a new one roughly every two years. Each new phone has a better screen, camera, CPU/GPU, charging, and sometimes more RAM/storage.

Take a look at a comparison of the iphone 17 and the iphone 12

https://www.apple.com/iphone/compare/?modelList=iphone-17,ip...

Is the newer model better? Sure!

But it had 4k 60fps video, optical image stabilisation, a "super retina display" etc five generations ago. The specs have kept improving, but it's not a quantum leap in performance.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#378

Post by throwaway2037 »

paulddraper wrote: post #211
margalabargala wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First time in your life? Were you born after COVID and the 24 months of dire component shortages that followed?

We couldn’t even make cars after COVID.

I ask ChatGPT about this. It says the root was demand collapse at the start of COVID. So fabs stopped producing the many low-end chips reqd for modern cars. They retooled/pivoted to higher-end chips. When auto manufs came back knocking after COVID, the fabs didn't want/need their biz of low-end chips.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#379

Post by throwaway2037 »

AngryData wrote: post #138
Dylan16807 wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ultra clean rooms with massive air handling systems can't recapture all their helium? Or is this just a temporary thing based on where processing is located?

Helium is almost all captured from gas wells by cryogenically liquefying the nitrogen out of it. I guess you could do technically do that with the fab's air but it is a LOT of volume of air to liquefy and likely costs more than even inflated helium prices. Most helium from most wells is simply vented because it is expensive to separate even with its relatively high concentration, and I imagine even the best case scen…

    > Helium is almost all captured from gas wells by cryogenically liquefying the nitrogen out of it.
This is wild. I never thought about how they separated gases from natural gas fields. The carbon footprint of each kg of that helium must be astonishingly large.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#380

Post by j1elo »

KPGv2 wrote: post #279
chromacity wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even before the hikes, SBCs were $50-$100 a pop, compared to pennies for basic MCUs and maybe $4 for high-performance ones. People were clearly willing to pay 100x more just for familiarity and the ecosystem ("hats", forums, etc). I don't know if 300x is going to make more hobbyists see the light, or just result in fewer of them being able to afford the hobby?

> People were clearly willing to pay 100x more just for familiarity and the ecosystem This is obviously logical. If I know how to program in Python or JS but not C and am familiar with SSH, I can do something with a SBC in a few minutes. I get paid $200/hr. If I spent even one hour to learn what I need to deal with a microcontroller, the time cost is four times the cost of materials if I stick with what I know. How m…

As if it would make sense that spending 2hrs relaxing on the beach or gardening your orchids would cost $400 to you. Money not made is not money spent. If you were doing a hobby project for learning, you were not going to be working during that time anyways, so your hourly rate doesn't matter.
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