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Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

anthropic.com

371–380 of 584 posts

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#371

People who are saying they're not seeing productivity boost, can you please share where is it failing? Because, I am terrified by the output I am getting while working on huge legacy codebases, it works. I described one of my workflow changes here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47271168 but in general compared to old way of working I am saving half of the steps consistently, whether its researching the codebas…

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Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not a good thing. If you’re not being exposed and skilling up already, you’re likely to be in the camp that is washed away. If you can’t be exposed to it in your day job, start using Claude opus in the evening so you know what’s coming.

So far I have not seen much skill gain from using LLM extensively. Maybe I will be replaced by matrix multiplication in my job, but if I need to use LLM at some point I expect little benefit from starting now. Yes, I tried to use Claude Code two months ago. It was scary, but not useful.

“Not useful” —- one of those moments where you have to be able to adjust your views in the face of new evidence. Humans are so wedded to their beliefs that it can be agonising to let go. I have nothing but respect for people who admit they were wrong, though. I remained a skeptic for a long time, but 4.5 was enough to convince me to adopt for production code.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#373
Based on my experience with using AI for development work, it feels like you really need to work with it instead of expecting it to do the work for you. Rather than type the code yourself by hand, you now need to explain the task very clearly, then review or test the generated code and then ask it to refactor and fix the issues you identify. This in itself is work that needs to be done, a different way of working compared to manual coding, but that doesn't mean any significant overall productivity gains are always guaranteed.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#374
post #347

I was at a big tech for last 10 years, quit my job last month - I feel 50x more productive outside than inside. Here is my take on AI's impact on productivity: First let's review what are LLMs objectively good at: 1. Writing boiler plate code 2. Translating between two different coding languages (migration) 3. Learning new things: Summarizing knowledge, explaining concepts 4. Documentation, menial tasks At a big tech…

2. Translating between two different coding languages (migration) I have a game written in XNA 100% of the code is there, including all the physics that I hand-wrote. All the assets are there. I tried to get Gemini and Claude to do it numerous times, always with utter failure of epic proportions with anything that's actually detailed. 1 - my transition from the lobby screen into gameplay? 0% replicated on all attempt…

In those situations you basically need to guide llm to do it properly. It rarely one shots complex problems like this, especially in non web dev, but could make it faster than doing it manually.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#375

People who are saying they're not seeing productivity boost, can you please share where is it failing? Because, I am terrified by the output I am getting while working on huge legacy codebases, it works. I described one of my workflow changes here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47271168 but in general compared to old way of working I am saving half of the steps consistently, whether its researching the codebas…

I find LLMs are good at essentially boilerplate code. It's clear what to do and it needs to be typed in. Or areas where I really have no idea where to start, because I'm not familiar with the codebase. I find anything else, I spend more time coaxing them into doing 85% of what I need that I'm better off doing it myself. So they're not useless but there's only so many times in a week that I need a function to pretty-p…

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Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#377
post #347

I was at a big tech for last 10 years, quit my job last month - I feel 50x more productive outside than inside. Here is my take on AI's impact on productivity: First let's review what are LLMs objectively good at: 1. Writing boiler plate code 2. Translating between two different coding languages (migration) 3. Learning new things: Summarizing knowledge, explaining concepts 4. Documentation, menial tasks At a big tech…

having been an early employee and founder of a few startups and then working at a few larger companies, most people who only ever worked at FAANG have no idea how much more productive tiny teams with ownership are.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#378
post #78

This rhymes with another recent study from the Dallas Fed: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2026/0224 - suggests AI is displacing younger workers but boosting experienced ones. This matches what we see discussed here, as well as the couple similar other studies we've seen discussed here. Also, it seems to me the concept of "observed exposure" is analogous to OpenAI's concept of "capability overhang" - htt…

> OpenAI's concept of "capability overhang"

note that this concept was not invented by OpenAI

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#379

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So far I have not seen much skill gain from using LLM extensively. Maybe I will be replaced by matrix multiplication in my job, but if I need to use LLM at some point I expect little benefit from starting now. Yes, I tried to use Claude Code two months ago. It was scary, but not useful.

“Not useful” —- one of those moments where you have to be able to adjust your views in the face of new evidence. Humans are so wedded to their beliefs that it can be agonising to let go. I have nothing but respect for people who admit they were wrong, though. I remained a skeptic for a long time, but 4.5 was enough to convince me to adopt for production code.

So far I updated from "meh, not useful" to "scary, not useful".

If it would be useful I would continue to use it, but at this point I would not use even if it would be free, not proprietary and not funding replacing me.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#380
post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dont use LLMs much. When I do, the experience always feels like search 2.0. Information at your fingertips. But you need to know exactly what you're looking for to get exactly what you need. The more complicated the problem, the more fractal / divergent outcomes there are. (Im forming the opinion that this is going to be the real limitations of LLMs). I recently used copilot.com to help solve a tricky problem for m…

> I don't use LLMs much Sorry to be so blunt, but it's not surprising that you aren't able to get much value from these tools, considering you don't use them much. Getting value from LLMs / agents is a skill like any other. If you don't practice it deliberately, you will likely be bad at it. It would be a mistake to confuse lack of personal skill for lack of tool capability. But I see people make this mistake all the…

Would be helpful if you pointed out what I did wrong :).

If it's "you didn't explain the problem clearly enough", then that aligns with my original comment.

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