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Iran War Cost Tracker

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Re: Iran War Cost Tracker

#371

Post by philistine »

roncesvalles wrote: post #238
throwaw12 wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

until your energy bills impact your pocket directly, while you were laid off from your manufacturing plant, because their cost structure is not competitive without cheap Russian oil/gas Look at the correlation here starting from 2022: https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/recent-weakness-german-manufa...

This is akin to someone in 1861 saying US cotton plantations, and by extension the entire Southern economy, aren't viable without slavery, so let's allow slavery to run. Western liberal civilization has theta decay without occasional violent intervention. Imagine if we didn't go all-out against communism.

The West didn't go all out at all against communism. Europe barely spent anything, and the US spent pennies on the dollar. The communists were bankrupt trying to keep up with the collective West spending loose change on military and intrigue.

Re: Iran War Cost Tracker

#372

Post by muwtyhg »

hereme888 wrote: post #258
don_esteban wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you support Israel no longer being a threat to anyone else in the region, no matter what?

[flagged]

Is every death at the hands of Israel against someone who is terrorist or has "terrorist-aligned ideologies"? If not, is every unjustified death of a civilian just "one IDF soldier doing something bad"?

You are handwaving away any sort of accountability from Israel. It is impossible, given your framing, for Israel to ever do anything wrong.

Re: Iran War Cost Tracker

#373

Post by justsid »

readitalready wrote: post #362
google234123 wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there good evidence for this?

Confirmed. $1.1 billion AN/FPS-132 radar hit, likely by a $50,000 Shahed drone: https://x.com/sam_lair/status/2028961678776488111 Holy shit.

The coat asymmetry with drones is crazy, they are stupid cheap to deploy on a nation state level. I feel like it’s going to be years until we fully learn the lessons from the Ukraine Russia war.

Re: Iran War Cost Tracker

#374

Post by [deleted] »

richardfeynman wrote: post #346
verteu wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What part is debunked? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Minab_school_airstrike

The main source in that Wikipedia article is "According to the IRGC." Trusting any belligerent in a war is silly, but given its history, trusting the IRGC during wartime is even sillier. No independent body like the Red Crescent (which is counting casualties in Iran) verified this. It's all "trust me, bro." USCENTCOM and the IAF both rejected these assertions. You should demand some evidence for the IRGC's claim. If…

[deleted]

Re: Iran War Cost Tracker

#375

Post by gravisultra »

ajross wrote: post #354
roysting wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s just the tip of the iceberg. People here seem to also have no perspective, since it is not in the wheelhouse of most tech people, on the fact that this is all a part of a 40 year strategy (as Netanyahu himself has openly stated) that some refer to as the “the Clean Break Strategy” or the “7 countries in 5 years memo”[1]. It clearly took longer than 5 years, but they definitely tried and even the likes of Hilla…

Counterargument: squabbling about "blue team vs red team" is legitimate domestic politics about issues important to voters. You're just upset because what you think the "the whole game" is about is a rare area of general agreement[1] and you happen to be on the "other side". To wit: when you disagree with everyone, it looks like they're conspiring against you to control the masses, yada yada yada. They're not, you're…

How my tax dollars are spent is a domestic issue. As is not implicating me in war crimes.

> They're not, you're just in a small minority

The majority do not support this war, nor do they support Israel. Our politicians refusing to listen to the electorate is also a domestic issue. As are the many attempts that Israel has made to strip us of our fundamental rights.

Re: Iran War Cost Tracker

#376

Post by gravisultra »

tzahifadida wrote: post #224

What would have happened if the US dis not get involved in WWII. We would probably not be here... Not everything is short sighted bean counters. Having major cities explode by nuclear devices in the US will surely cost more.

If Iran had nuclear weapons we would not be bombing them now and the world would be a more peaceful place. I certainly trust Iran with nuclear weapons a lot more than I trust Israel with them. We need Iran to keep Israel in check.

Re: Iran War Cost Tracker

#377

Post by verteu »

richardfeynman wrote: post #346
verteu wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What part is debunked? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Minab_school_airstrike

The main source in that Wikipedia article is "According to the IRGC." Trusting any belligerent in a war is silly, but given its history, trusting the IRGC during wartime is even sillier. No independent body like the Red Crescent (which is counting casualties in Iran) verified this. It's all "trust me, bro." USCENTCOM and the IAF both rejected these assertions. You should demand some evidence for the IRGC's claim. If…

This "debunks" nothing, it's merely a demand for more evidence.

Re: Iran War Cost Tracker

#378

Post by bawolff »

cgio wrote: post #284
bawolff wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sometimes yes, but is there in this specific case? Because from my vantage point it looks like the choice is, status quo or bomb them. Its not like america can double sanction iran, they are already fully economically sanctioned. What is the middle ground here?

You could relax sanctions in exchange for other priorities. A persistent pain is less effective than an acute one anyway. There’s carrots too in negotiations. But no, we cannot do what a previous president did.

How much of the current situation is a result of that previous deal?

The deal basically stopped iran's nuclear program but allowed the regime to better send money and guns to its proxy network.

The current war is effectively the downstream consequences of Iran's proxy network going off the leash.

Ultimately, negotiations work best with both a carrot and a stick. If its just a carrot, and no deal would be unacceptable to one of the parties, then the logical thing for the other party would be to always hold out.

----

In any case, in this specific situation (regardless of how we got here), its hard to imagine that Iran could have made a deal and survived. The regime is very weak at home and its questionable if they could have survived the loss of face to agree to what usa wanted.

Re: Iran War Cost Tracker

#379

Post by JKCalhoun »

bawolff wrote: post #4

Wouldn't some of these costs be present either way? Without a war US would still have aircraft carriers, they would just be floating somewhere else. On the other side, it seems like this is not tracking interceptor costs (presumably due to it being classified), which have certainly been used extensively and are extremely expensive. For that matter i doubt we have a very clear picture of how much ordinance has been us…

And I just read the U.S. may be sending the Navy as escort for oil tankers in the region.

Re: Iran War Cost Tracker

#380

Post by JKCalhoun »

throwaw12 wrote: post #70
BJones12 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given 50 million schoolkids in the US and a cost per meal per child of $4, the current number represents 10 meals. At 1 meal a day that would be 2 school weeks, at 2 meals a day that would be 1 school week.

2 weeks of meal for every school kid in the US! Can you imagine the scale of this number? 3 days of war vs 2 week of meal for every school kid Now do the math for Afghan war, probably US could have easily cancelled 70% of loan for every college grad, or could've been built large rail network

That is the thing that is the most disappointing—that we could have had it so much better.
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