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Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

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Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#371

Post by gpt5 »

zeckalpha wrote: post #260

A declining dollar will look like a good economy for those who think the economy is the stock market.

This is true - all the global multinationals that essentially make the US stock market earn a good portion of their revenue in foreign currency, so their revenue and profits will increase.

In addition, they are all cheaper when priced in USD, so their stock will go up regardless.

This is just counting short term effect of currency devaluation. Long term there are also effects around trade balance and jobs.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#372

Post by socalgal2 »

Oras wrote: post #62
wolvoleo wrote: post #3

I do really hope the AI bubble will collapse soon. The sooner it blows the less damage it will do. And hopefully we can go back to doing real work without all these leadership guys breathing down our necks to see if we are doing enough of this AI all their shareholders want us to be involved in. It will suck even for us in europe due to shortsighted pension funds having invested in AI as well. But we'll just have to…

> It happened to blockchain, it happened to metaverse. I don't think AI is comparable to these technologies. AI had a real impact on certain daily activities, such as search, coding, etc. While the metaverse was just a fantasy with no tangible benefit other than Zuck trying to create his own platform to take on Apple and Google. Blockchain had some potential in certain fields, but it wasn't user-friendly or usable by…

I'm willing to bet that the metaverse (defined by me as AR glasses) is a future that's coming and that Zuck was just too early, just like Palm Pilot was arguably too early. The use cases are too compelling, effectively a computer assistant that can tell you anything and everything about what you did or are doing. Yes, privacy people will hate it but the rest will eat it up just like they don't care about privacy on their phones.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#373

Post by kittikitti »

The COVID economic depression is not accurately shown in the charts. The economy shut down for more than 2 years. Before RTO, the economy was in a depression. These charts provide indicators to what's happening on the ground. The classic indicators didn't accurately capture the Coronavirus lockdown.

The economy is still growing from the quarantine lockdown. It's why we didn't see a collapse, it would have to be worse than what happened during the lockdown for the economy to be in a recession. That's not the case, and I don't see a collapse or recession for at least 3 years.

For most of us, we work remotely and some people might be out of touch. Don't take this the wrong way, but people are just recently recovering from cottage syndrome. We're still in the transition period with the layoffs and AI doomerism being growing pains.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#374

Post by Braxton1980 »

YZF wrote: post #351
baby_souffle wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump, yes. The millions of people that voted for him multiple times despite no shortage of reports and credible allegations that he was a scumbag... Will not. Trump isn't the problem, he's a symptom.

What you're missing is that America was always like that. And it's been extremely successful. For sure there have been some changes in social dynamics, not just in the US, but worldwide. But the recipe that made the US successful has not changed much. Market economy, geography, attracting talent, innovation, freedom.

>Market economy

The recent massive increase in the US governments direct and indirect involvement in business decisions changes things.

Trump is pushing/forcing countries and companies to invest in the US. He's added more restrictions on who they can sell their products. New significant widespread tariffs also exist that forces businesses to decide on how they can handle it while being pressured not to raise prices.

Government involvement in business decisions, even if indirect, is not a market economy. In a true market economy supply and demand should determine prices and businesses and consumers make the decisions on their respective side.

There's also background pressure on businesses to avoid angering Trump and this affects their decision making process.

>attracting talent, innovation,

Trump raised the fee for H1Bs, blocked student visas from 19 countries, and revoked 100k visas for people who were here as students, business reasons, vacation, and other. He also is removing legal status from many groups.

His inflammatory rhetoric and actions have harmed the international reputation of the US. There's also a prevalent anti-immigrant mood in the US and a much smaller

This decreases the pool of people who can choose to come here and for that smaller amount it increases the probability that smart and innovative people may look elsewhere to either study or start a company.

There are also those that had legal status, lost it, and must leave. These are another set of groups that could have contained some talented and innovative people.

Talented immigrants have done so much for our economy and standing in the world. ----

He cut government funding for many scientific research endeavors and government programs. These may or may not be replaced by private industry. It's justified to cut waste as government spending is a problem but speed and extent of the cuts makes it questionable if a proper assessment was done.

----

I'm sure you can point to similar actions in the past but I believe the quantity, speed, and intensity are significantly different than in recent times.

I'm also not arguing that some changes weren't justified. I just believe it's a clear change in the ingredients for the worse.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#375

Post by PlanksVariable »

datsci_est_2015 wrote: post #239
baby_souffle wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump, yes. The millions of people that voted for him multiple times despite no shortage of reports and credible allegations that he was a scumbag... Will not. Trump isn't the problem, he's a symptom.

The rest of the Republican Party is completely devoid of charisma, especially the kind that drew so many voters to Trump. There is no drop-in replacement. Lots of money will be spent trying to manufacture a replacement, though. That will be fun to watch. If you thought the last-minute rally around Kamala was tough to watch…

Isn’t the VP generally the shoe-in nominee? Vance lacks charisma and gravitas, but he only has to be better than the Democratic candidate. For every Bill and Barack, the Democrats have also given us a Kamala, Hillary, and Al. Never underestimate their ability to pick a loser.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#376

Post by drgo »

robinsoncrusue wrote: post #171

The question is there is no other place for money to go. Liquidity is still in abundance and no other market can capture that liquidity. Eurozone is a total mess, ECB is doing one reckless thing after another which will inevitably lead to Germany leaving Eurozone at some point. Japan market is a joke, Asia and emerging market has huge governance issues. Bond market has penalized the investors and only more pain is in…

For a "little" speech, it is all people seem to talk about; e.g., it was mentioned few times in the comments above. And, yes, one can be on the board of a public company and still make valid and consequential analyses. Hell, one can be a convicted fraudster and at the same time become the president of a superpower. My point, you could belittle Canada, EU, China etc but it is going to solve the US's intractable problems.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#377

Post by cjfd »

YZF wrote: post #361
panarky wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The international "rules-based order" is a good idea when most nations play by the rules most of the time, and when the most powerful at least pretend to follow the same rules as everyone else. A world order based on rules makes it possible to live at a much higher level of abstraction. Abstractions like rule of law, democracy, government currencies and stock exchanges are intangible and imaginary. They're mostly jus…

The rules based order is mostly a fabrication of recent history. Perhaps between the fall of the Soviet Union, China becoming more open, and the general peace and prosperity it seemed like it existed. Politics between countries has always been around interests. Countries have no interest in giving up their sovereignty. They may pretend to respect these "rules" when it suits them and then ignore them when it doesn't.…

Incorrect. The rules based order was first attempted after the first world war and then created after the second one. These are lessen that have been bought with blood. Lots of blood. Megaliters of it. The incredible stupidity of throwing that away is absolutely disgusting.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#378

Post by pfannkuchen »

enraged_camel wrote: post #368
pfannkuchen wrote: post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t hoarded wealth a no-op? It just reduces the supply of whatever they are hoarding. Would the people benefit from redistributing the things they are hoarding? Corporate stock that pays little to no dividends, mainly? It’s not like they are hoarding wheat. I don’t really get what people think will happen if we redistribute the stored wealth. All wealth is, is a claim to direct labor and materials, the magnitude of…

>> Isn’t hoarded wealth a no-op? It just reduces the supply of whatever they are hoarding. It’s not. Wealth creates political power, which the wealthy wield to stack the odds in their own favor at the expense of everyone else.

Is that the topic of discussion? I thought it was something along the lines of “tax the rich so we can do things with the money”. That is the area I’m saying it is a no-op in. Statements without context frequently don’t mean the same as what they mean with context.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#379

Post by Lutger »

panarky wrote: post #270
SllX wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Should the US become an unfriendly power to the rest of the western world, it will find the demand for its currency plummeting, which I don't want to outline is a big issue. Right now this is much more of a maybe, possibly, eventually, over a long enough time horizon. As of the end of 2025, USD still made up 57% of foreign reserves vs 20% for the Euro and 3% for the Chinese renminbi. Nearly all commodities are stil…

The international "rules-based order" is a good idea when most nations play by the rules most of the time, and when the most powerful at least pretend to follow the same rules as everyone else. A world order based on rules makes it possible to live at a much higher level of abstraction. Abstractions like rule of law, democracy, government currencies and stock exchanges are intangible and imaginary. They're mostly jus…

Neither is 'real'. The power of might depends on belief just as much as the power of rules. You need a whole lot of compliance, even when forced by fear and terror, to just keep up a police state. The belief consists of where people think other people assign authority to, at large. But that can be just as brittle as a meme stock if the time is right.

Social reality is always constructed. No single construction is more real than any other.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#380

Post by PlanksVariable »

JackFr wrote: post #244
baby_souffle wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump, yes. The millions of people that voted for him multiple times despite no shortage of reports and credible allegations that he was a scumbag... Will not. Trump isn't the problem, he's a symptom.

[flagged]

Yes, and also pushing identity politics down voters’ throats, selecting an inept candidate without a primary, their desperate attempts to buy votes with debt forgiveness, and opening the border, which escalated to a full-blown crisis leading into election season.

If we extrapolate Trump’s health today compared to where he was at just a year or two ago, I think Republicans will face the same dilemma the Democrats did soon. It will be interesting to see how they handle it.

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