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De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

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Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#371

Post by echelon »

RealityVoid wrote: post #330
echelon wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is sanewashig this whole thing. This was being called back during the Biden admin and before Trump even ran again. Back during the Obama admin, even! https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/no-piv... https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/us-pivot-asia/ https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/europe-biggest-... If the US can't build strong coalitions with Europe, it wants to spend its energy els…

Honestly, the idea of Trump making geopolitically informed decisions is so out of the realm of my perception of reality I don't even know how to engage with you. Trump is a narcissistic idiot that you voted into power. Your geopolitical direction is dictated by his narcissistic whims. "National security reasons Greenland" or "EU collaboration with China" or whatever is exactly what I initially said - sane washing a l…

I have a great interest in geopolitics. I didn't vote for Trump, and I already told you this is coming from within the DoD.

These are military decisions. These are 50-year plans.

Here I was 10 months ago and two years ago saying the same thing:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43505524

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36896699

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#372

Post by pessimizer »

WarmWash wrote: post #136

Trump is a populist president who sees the value of US exports (on the back of blue collar work) being more important than global dollar dominance. This plays hand in hand with his championing of tariffs (foreign goods become more expensive) and hostility towards immigrants (apply upwards pressure on domestic wages). If you cannot see this, or cannot believe it, you should probably check if you are in a ideological b…

> Trump is a populist president who sees the value of US exports (on the back of blue collar work) being more important than global dollar dominance. This plays hand in hand with his championing of tariffs (foreign goods become more expensive) and hostility towards immigrants (apply upwards pressure on domestic wages).

It has nothing really to do with populism. It's the US's only rational option. You can't just run trade deficits forever, no matter what the people who make money from trade deficits tell you. A parasite that gets so big that it disables the host is a dead parasite.

People act like this is the how the US always worked. We just started this with Reagan, and every moment since then has seen the rise of finance, the victory of unproductive capital and speculation, and the decline in domestic manufacturing and standard of living that you would expect.

There's never been a moment where there's been anything to point at for a finance capitalist to feel vindicated that his success would lead to the US's greater good, so he resorts to claiming that it is simply impossible to be any other way. At best this is sunk cost fallacy, but at worst, it's just propagandistic gaslighting from a bunch of people who don't have any connection or loyalty to anyone in the US, don't care when it's people suffer, don't care how its children will live, and will just leave if their houses start to feel insecure. There's your populism.

I agree with your assessment, but Europe is in unique trouble that the rest of the world has no need to relate to. The US will simply have Europeans jailed or killed who steer Europe counter to US interests. Right now the US is on a slow road to peace with Russia, while trying to cultivate and maximize European animosity and estrangement from Russia. The world in which the US is mocked in Europe by NATO (a device to carry out US interests) for trying to appease Russia is a world that no one but a realist could have predicted.

Everybody else will de-dollarize, and the US will threaten Europe and the UK with tariffs if they don't peg the Euro and pound to the dollar. The US will be trading freely with Russia and China, while sanctioning Europeans for buying energy from Russia and bribing European governments to harass Chinese companies.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#374

Post by russdill »

legitster wrote: post #175

It's no secret that our current US administration is envious of China. So in no small part they probably want to model the US Dollar after the Renminbi. Drop the value internationally to incentivize American exports, and manipulate the hell out of it. (Hence why they have dropped inflation as a political issue - some in the administration are essentially rooting for inflation to get much, much worse). It should go wi…

We print money, send it around the world, and the world sends us goods. It was a great thing.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#375

Post by Y_Y »

dnautics wrote: post #311
parsimo2010 wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As time goes on, fewer people are alive that predate the EU and more people will perceive it as a lasting institution. Additionally, we've now seen the EU survive the departure of a major economic power (the UK). More people are certainly willing to believe in the stability of the EU now. Another major currency is the Yuan, and some countries may be as willing to trade in Yuan to improve relations with China, so perh…

the yuan has major currency controls. there is a real threat of capital flight destabilization if policies change which is why nobody sane would peg tp the yuan as it is now. that said, countries definitely make bad choices.

The IMF seem to think it's good enough to peg their special not-a-currency currency to.

https://www.imf.org/en/topics/special-drawing-right

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#376

Post by ericmay »

epistasis wrote: post #365
ericmay wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm not saying you're wrong, but I also don't fully understand the need to have grander access to capital markets. Well if you use the renminbi or yuan as just a medium of exchange, well, why bother when you already have the dollar? To answer your question better, what is the point of access to capital markets of a country and how does that stabilize or strengthen its currency, or make it more highly sought after?

That is an excellent point! My intuition is that the yuan could be viewed as more reliable than the dollar, when the dollar is propped up precisely on the good will that gets destroyed by threatening invasion of allies. China does threaten plenty of invasions, but not in Europe or most of the rest of the world yet.

Reliable how? How would you obtain the currency, and what would you do with it?

> when the dollar is propped up precisely on the good will

The dollar isn't valuable because of good will. Central banks in Europe, or Japan, or elsewhere don't hold dollars because they want to be nice to the United States. They hold them because the United States is incredibly wealthy, has incredibly deep capital markets, high liquidity, and because the dollar is a great medium of exchange.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#377

Post by tclancy »

nish__ wrote: post #52
jacquesm wrote: post #2

It's not losing it so much as that it is being destroyed on purpose.

True. Good way to pay employees less. Edit: to the downvoters, did I lie?

You seem to be talking about an alternative universe where employers are being paid in a different currency.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#378

Post by cheeseomlit »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #303
netbioserror wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are also many Americans who have always desired de-dollarization, since the dollar has been the foundation of our imperial system and abuses of state power. Say what you will about how dated a gold standard is, but it forces immediate fiscal responsibility upon governments; fiat currencies defer responsibility, turning it into a Sword of Damocles that catastrophically falls upon future generations. You trade ge…

> Say what you will about how dated a gold standard is, but it forces immediate fiscal responsibility upon governments We were on metal standards for millenia. Governments routinely spent beyond their means, including for imperial aims. This is like four centuries of Roman history.

Yes, but there were practical limits to currency debasement when the currency was a physical commodity with intrinsic value. People notice when their coins start getting filled with lead, and there were serious political repercussions for it. You cant just conjure a trillion gold/silver coins out of nothing like you can with fiat, and the ability to do so is 100% guaranteed to be abused.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#379

Post by ijidak »

renewiltord wrote: post #151
touwer wrote: post #51

The US century is already over. It's just that a lot of US citizens don't see that. De-dollarization will happen when one is a traitor to it's allies

Indeed. People are actively trying to repair something which cannot be fixed. Now that the US century is over, the only way forward is for the US to use present military power as a cudgel. Given that the multipolar world is nigh, the only path forward is through. If America and her erstwhile allies are no longer aligned, then any attempt by America to repair this is doomed. Consequently, Trump’s approach is the only…

Mankind has never seen the collapse of a nuclear powered empire.

What makes us think this is possible?

It may not be possible for a nuclear powered empire to fall without the death of billions.

Mankind is in uncharted territory.

Even Russia never fully fell after the USSR collapsed. Whoever kept the nuclear weapons continued to be a first tier power.

Nothing in human history compares to the present question of how the current empires fall. And if they can even do so safely.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#380

Post by spookie »

parsimo2010 wrote: post #138
softwaredoug wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not just that This is a gradual decline. From 70% in the 90s to 60% today. Today there are more options like the Euro that didn’t exist in the 90s. People can argue over EU economic stability, but it’s there as reasonable option.

As time goes on, fewer people are alive that predate the EU and more people will perceive it as a lasting institution. Additionally, we've now seen the EU survive the departure of a major economic power (the UK). More people are certainly willing to believe in the stability of the EU now. Another major currency is the Yuan, and some countries may be as willing to trade in Yuan to improve relations with China, so perh…

The euro has been gaining ground ever since the financial crisis in terms of share of currencies held in global foreign exchange reserves. Less than a third of the US dollar, but still a distant second. Nevertheless, I'm still concerned about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and how intertwined the EU economy is to countries which it has shaky relations with at best.
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