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Is it a bubble?

oaktreecapital.com

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Re: Is it a bubble?

#371

Post by 7952 »

rfrey wrote: post #248
9rx wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's true for me. I type in what I want and then the AI system (compiler) generates the code. Doesn't everyone work that way?

I understand what you're getting at, but compilers are deterministic. AI isn't just another tool, or just a higher level of program specification.

This is all a bit above my head. But the effects a compiler has on the computer are certainly not deterministic. It might do what you want or it might hit a weird driver bug or set off a false positive in some security software. And the more complex stacks get the he more this happens.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#372

Post by Madmallard »

dust42 wrote: post #367

The question is, can SV extract several trillion dollars out of the global economy over the next few years with the help of LLMs and GPUs? And the follow-up question: will LLMs help grow the global economy by this amount - because if not, then extracting the money will lead to problems in other parts of the world. And last not least, will LLMs -given enough money to train them on ever bigger data sets- magically turn…

there is no comprehension

Re: Is it a bubble?

#373

Post by beloch »

dust42 wrote: post #367

The question is, can SV extract several trillion dollars out of the global economy over the next few years with the help of LLMs and GPUs? And the follow-up question: will LLMs help grow the global economy by this amount - because if not, then extracting the money will lead to problems in other parts of the world. And last not least, will LLMs -given enough money to train them on ever bigger data sets- magically turn…

"We see both sides – genuine infrastructure expansion alongside financing gymnastics that recall the 2000 telecom bust. The boom may yet prove productive, but only if revenue catches up before credit tightens. When does healthy strain become systemic risk?"

---------------

This was quoted in the article and it says something really important very succinctly. Was the internet transformative? Absolutely. A lot of companies had solid ideas, spent big, and went tits up waiting for the money to roll in.

AI can be both "real deal" and "bubble" simultaneously.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#374

Post by weevil »

> I don’t know any more about AI than most generalist investors.

This statement is redundant; the article screams with the author's ignorance.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#375

Post by curtisblaine »

The real question is: if this is a bubble and it explodes, will interest rates of common people with a mortgage shoot up? If yes, some heads better be rolling for real this time. All other considerations are secondary.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#376

Post by re-thc »

dmurvihill wrote: post #340

This says it all: > I haven’t met anyone who doesn’t believe artificial intelligence has the potential to be one of the biggest technological developments of all time, reshaping both daily life and the global economy. You’re trying to weigh in on this topic and you didn’t even _talk_ to a bear?

> and you didn’t even _talk_ to a bear?

You know how to? What language does it speak?

Re: Is it a bubble?

#378

Post by dust42 »

Madmallard wrote: post #372
dust42 wrote: post #367

The question is, can SV extract several trillion dollars out of the global economy over the next few years with the help of LLMs and GPUs? And the follow-up question: will LLMs help grow the global economy by this amount - because if not, then extracting the money will lead to problems in other parts of the world. And last not least, will LLMs -given enough money to train them on ever bigger data sets- magically turn…

there is no comprehension

I intentionally didn't say AI but LLM because for me the word 'intelligence' is misleading. But LLMs are definitely a leap forward in NLP and what other word for 'comprehension' would you use?

Re: Is it a bubble?

#379

Post by ACCount37 »

thenaturalist wrote: post #354
dmurvihill wrote: post #340

This says it all: > I haven’t met anyone who doesn’t believe artificial intelligence has the potential to be one of the biggest technological developments of all time, reshaping both daily life and the global economy. You’re trying to weigh in on this topic and you didn’t even _talk_ to a bear?

Also equating artificial intelligence with LLMs. I get that laymen and the media do it, but imo this looks really bad for an investor.

What's the alternative? Is there literally any AI tech more promising and disruptive than LLMs? Or should we buy into that "it's not ackhtually AI" meme?

Re: Is it a bubble?

#380

Post by ares623 »

ACCount37 wrote: post #379
thenaturalist wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also equating artificial intelligence with LLMs. I get that laymen and the media do it, but imo this looks really bad for an investor.

What's the alternative? Is there literally any AI tech more promising and disruptive than LLMs? Or should we buy into that "it's not ackhtually AI" meme?

The alternative is to be f*cking honest
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