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America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

washingtonpost.com

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Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#371

Post by gregw2 »

simgt wrote: post #279
ffsm8 wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They built this knowledge up only in the last 10-15 yrs though. It's absolutely possible to reverse this trend within a much shorter time period then this argument always implies.

How do you end up with 10-15 years? China is almost perfectly vertically integrated from raw materials to highly advanced finished products. Their industrialization started in the 70s. Getting to that level would require a lot of planning as well as the kind of hard constraints imposed on China through embargo. We're not even getting back to that level, we've never reached iPhone level of manufacturing in the US or E…

Musk apparently stood up a brand new raw to finished goods manufacturing for Starlink kits in 2-3 years in America/Texas. Non trivial, but doable in niches at least, per a factory engineer:

"The main function of this site is to produce our standard Starlink kits. Right now, we’re producing 15,000 a day straight out of the factory.

Raw plastic palettes come in, raw aluminum comes in and we make those into the Starlink kits and ship them right out to the customer zones."

https://www.teslaoracle.com/2025/03/06/spacex-bastrop-factor...

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#372

Post by trollbridge »

yibg wrote: post #116
petermcneeley wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The USA and the west in general is 40 years deep into this crisis and recent developments have not actually made a shift in that trajectory.

It seems like the US in particular isn't able to pick one path and stick with it. The shift towards services has already happened. But investment in silicon, renewables etc is on again off again. There now seems to be a desire to bring all manufacturing jobs back to the US, although it's not clear who wants this or why. e.g. who actually wants clothing and toy manufacturing back in the US? So we have a set of ad hoc…

A great deal of investment in renewables just meant importing solar panels and wind turbines from China that will wear out in 19 years. Outside of a few jobs in trucking to moving parts and a few jobs to install them, it does not create a solid labour base nor good careers.

I certainly want clothing manufacture back in the U.S. with a focus on using renewable (ie. not microplastic based) textiles to make articles of clothing that don’t wear out in a year or two. I have a handmade pair of pants I bought at a local thrift store that were locally made from domestically produced denim. Got them for $4. New ones from the person who makes them would be around $40-$75. They are custom fitted to you, although I got lucky and the thrift store had one in exactly my width and height.

So far they don’t have any rips, years, and the cuffs aren’t fraying.

My brand new Levi’s and Wrangler’s have fraying cuffs and are much more prone to getting tears because of the thinner fabric. They also seem to stretch after washing or wearing them a long time and then don’t fit as well.

Toys? I want toys for my kids that aren’t full of lead or cadmium, and are something besides battery operated beeping rubbish or something with a screen. I’m glad to pay $25 for a wooden toy. I bought one locally made in Chico, CA at a store called “Chicomade” where everything was locally made.

I don’t see why fast fashion with clothes you need to throw out sooner due to planned obsolescence and plastic trash toys.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#373

Post by trollbridge »

wrp wrote: post #155
coliveira wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

# 3 is not a solution because it will only make American production more expensive and impoverish the population. It's a full disaster.

Japan used that strategy very successfully for at least a century. The high cost of imported goods encouraged consumers to buy domestic at prices that were also high, which subsidized exports at competitive prices. The Japanese public is less docile now, but this is one example where import restrictions worked well. I believe you can find other examples from the 20th century, but I'm not sure whether they would work…

They also became experts at automation and at producing high quality goods.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#374

Post by antonvs »

hitarpetar wrote: post #100
phillyboy82 wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wrong. Kids brains are fried from phones / social media so much that they struggle with repetitive labor. I see this all the time at an automotive plant. UAW wages are good, especially after the last contract, but we still get people who struggle putting a sticker on a car for an hour straight before their break or task switch.

finally a positive framing on social media addiction

“Get addicted to this phone, son, or you’ll end up working in a factory!”

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#375

Post by bluGill »

iancmceachern wrote: post #168
hansmayer wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The GPUs have a much shorter lifecycle, on the order of ~3 years.

Exactly, I'm a mechanical engineer and I still have tools given to me by my machinist great uncle from WWII that are not only functional, they're identical to a new tool I'd buy today for that purpose, from the same manufacturer. This is the difference the OP was highlighting

Are those tools functional? Have you ever checked? I'm not sure what tools you are talking about, but likely some of them are measurement tools and they can seem to work perfect while giving the wrong measurement. Other might be cutting tools that cut, but they are a bit dull and if you don't know how to check you won't realize the cuts are not as good as new anymore (or maybe you have sharpened them and they now cut the wrong profile...). There are many ways a tool can seem functional but be wrong.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#376

Post by trollbridge »

gsf_emergency_4 wrote: post #131
a_bonobo wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to work in such a factory in Germany and turn-over was high :) A large pool of uni students doing their summer breaks propped up the place. They could afford to work there for 1-2 months mentally because they knew they'd go back to university (me, too). The few long-timers on the factory floor were mostly functioning alcoholics.

This was a family owned biz? Somehow, I imagine, I'd feel better slogging for an SME than in an "externally-funded" place. I'm guessing that US needs a similar nation-wide service to connect gig-workers of all sorts to factories specifically.

My sister has been at a family owned small factory for 30+ years now. Eventually loyalty to family becomes a thing, especially when they’re loyal to you.

They are gradually not replacing staff as they retire or the occasional person quits on the factory floor due to automation. Their biggest challenge is who will own it in the future - the son and grandson have fully taken over from the founder, but nobody else in the family is really interested.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#377

Post by kakacik »

simgt wrote: post #307
varjag wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The leadership in democracy does what the population wants, even more so in the past couple decades.

Citation very much needed ;) Even our current voting systems are far from being the best we can come up with in term of fairness. The population most certainly wants to remain in an environment humans can comfortably live in, somehow that's not what our democracies are selecting for these days.

Yet people actively decided as they did, while almost fully knowing where it leads. It could also have been worse given progressing senility, attempt to overthrow government etc. We are not in a new territory after all, just continuation. Tariffs are new mexican wall.

At least accept how your nation thinks on average, no weaseling around simple fact of today's reality.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#378

Post by red-iron-pine »

kenhwang wrote: post #360
nradov wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cars haven't gotten any lighter. Rather the reverse. Battery packs are quite heavy.

Even non-EVs have gotten quite a bit heavier due to the inclusion of more structural safety features and creature comforts.

arguably the biggest driver is simply the cost of oil. crumple zones made of styrofoam and plastic bumpers arn't making things heavy.

e.g. https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2019/01/03/new-ve...

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#379

Post by boroboro4 »

trenchpilgrim wrote: post #317
rhubarbtree wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Data centre hardware is more like 3 years.

No they don't. 5-8 years is common. The source for the 3 year number is an unnamed random person claiming to be a Google engineer, and Google specifically reached out to all the journalists publishing that claim with this response. > Recent purported comments about Nvidia GPU hardware utilization and service life expressed by an “unnamed source” were inaccurate, do not represent how we utilize Nvidia’s technology, an…

Data centers might be, GPUs not really. No one needs GPUs from 8 years, and hardly even 5.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#380

Post by antonvs »

yibg wrote: post #116
petermcneeley wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The USA and the west in general is 40 years deep into this crisis and recent developments have not actually made a shift in that trajectory.

It seems like the US in particular isn't able to pick one path and stick with it. The shift towards services has already happened. But investment in silicon, renewables etc is on again off again. There now seems to be a desire to bring all manufacturing jobs back to the US, although it's not clear who wants this or why. e.g. who actually wants clothing and toy manufacturing back in the US? So we have a set of ad hoc…

> it's not clear who wants this or why. e.g. who actually wants clothing and toy manufacturing back in the US?

Politicians who are optimizing for votes from a large and ignorant base that hasn’t thought through any of this.

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