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AMD signs AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, gives it option to take a 10% stake

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Re: AMD signs AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, gives it option to take a 10% stake

#371

Post by coliveira »

MonkeyClub wrote: post #362
rhetocj23 wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And then people turn around and hand-wave that away by saying: But youre assuming that the development of LLMs stop and they wont be able to address that problem. Like Okay, it sounds like a valid point. The issue is the hand waving and the fact it is not grounded in reality.

I took GP's comment to say that, even if LLMs get massively better in the next six months (which they will), the colleagues still have to wade through the slop during the review this week. So while one person is getting a 5x increase in productivity, one or two get a corresponding 5x decrease.

LLMs didn't get massively better in the last 6 months, and most probably won't get this better in the next 6 months either.

Re: AMD signs AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, gives it option to take a 10% stake

#372

Post by coliveira »

cebert wrote: post #327
coliveira wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems that these American companies have decided, with the government blessing, to form a cartel to split the imaginary money they assume will exist for AI technologies. This is an extremely disturbing notion that will only increase the combined power of these tech companies over our daily lives, but may also spell the doom of the economy in a not-so-distant future.

Does anyone here who lived through the dotcom bubble feel like we're in a similar situation with AI? I am excited about AI and recognize its potential. However, the increasing number of business deals like this one is raising my concerns that we may be heading toward a harsh bubble.

Most definitely yes. We see all signs of companies receiving money at incredibly high valuation without any business plan. It is a ticking time bomb. We just don't know how long the madness will continue.

Re: AMD signs AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, gives it option to take a 10% stake

#373

Post by layla5alive »

N70Phone wrote: post #100
dist-epoch wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL this means everyone holding AMD has 10% of their equity/value taken away and handed to OpenAI. But the stock is up 30% on the news. So lose 10%, but gain 30%, so net 20% beneficial to equity holders?

Percentage math doesn't quite work that way. (130% * 90% for gaining 30% and then giving away 10% of that, is 117% not 120%) But yes. That's the intent . The "problem" is that OpenAI doesn't have any of the shares yet, and it's unclear how much they actually will get. Right now AMD shareholders have the full +30% gain with none of the loss. But will the +30% gain be wiped out on the news OpenAI won't be buying as man…

It's so much worse than that.

The first 0.1% of shareholders to sell would get the full +30%, then the next 0.1% would get ~28%, then the next... and by the time you got down to the last of the initial shareholders trying to liquidate, the price would likely be pennies on the dollar.

This is not value, but hot air.

The value these things represent is based almost entirely on the myth/hype + 401k index fund growth + inflation expectations at this point.

If you don't get dividends or voting power from your shares, all you have left is liquidation rights in the event of a bankruptcy. So, the shares are really worth their share of ~whatever AMD's assets are worth in a bankruptcy.

But, because we trade them in public markets, they're immediately worth whatever someone else will pay. And that's basically much more tethered to myth (and consistent 401k index fund growth + inflation expectations) than to fundamentals at this point.

Right now, 401k funds are buying AMD at this higher share price, with zero due diligence!

So, if growth stops / if job losses explode, then 401k contributions slow down (or reverse!), then markets fall, then margin calls happen, then markets fall more, more job losses...

There's a lot of cash sloshing around in the system from all the 2020s money printing, and there's a perma-buy-the-dip mentality that has come out of this extreme bull market (bubble market), so there is quite some extra resilience; but, the coyote is really going to have a reckoning once it finally looks down...

Re: AMD signs AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, gives it option to take a 10% stake

#374

Post by xwolfi »

Havoc wrote: post #198
pixl97 wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean the potential value comes from the future either way. If you just print money and nothing else, it inflates and becomes worthless affecting all involved. If the money turns into technical progress or products then the entire economy grows.

> potential value comes from the future In a strictly commercial sense yes but stock markets decoupled from that long ago. Whether it’s wallstreetbets up to shenanigans or a market crash it’s got little to do with actual future and more With sentiments. You’d hope it would revert to fundamentals eventually but markets sure seem happy to not do that

Sentiments about what ?

What is "actual future" ? Obviously we can only have feelings for it, not knowledge, right ?

Re: AMD signs AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, gives it option to take a 10% stake

#375

Post by xwolfi »

lelanthran wrote: post #343
dist-epoch wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nothing in return? AMD stock is up 30% today on this news.

> Nothing in return? AMD stock is up 30% today on this news. Companies don't actually get any money when their stock goes up. Maybe AMD owns a lot of their own stock and can sell it off to see a gain, but the stock simply rising doesn't contribute anything to AMD.

Who is AMD ? A collection of shareholders, all 30% richer ? A collection of employees, all with stock vesting 30% richer ? A bank account in a corporate bank, that indeed changed not at all ?

Re: AMD signs AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, gives it option to take a 10% stake

#376

Post by xwolfi »

Argonaut998 wrote: post #293

When I was around 10 years old I remember us asking the teacher why not just print money to solve the worlds problems and the teacher scoffing. It took me another 15 years to realise that’s basically what central banks do, especially these last five years. BTC is at $125k, gold at $4000, and every other week we are inundated with some multi-hundred billion dollar deals somewhere or other. All this talk about multi GW…

You forget one side of the equation: yes money is "printed" with abandon, but the other side gets an IOU, a debt, to repay with dividend.

The government BORROWS printed money, the FED emits debt against that money, and the hole keeps getting bigger. You certainly solved a short term problem, but you also created a long term one.

Meanwhile, people make less children, immigration is reduced, debt buyers, the ones receiving the interest, are starting to think twice, someone will be left with the bag and it's gonna be the 401k bondholders relying on these debt interest to finance their non productive retirement.

BTC is being bought maybe due to it's non correlation with those debts, but it's also printed virtually with absolutely no tangible value (the network can just collectively decide to change its rules with no legal repercussion), and gold definitely has tangible value (at least, it makes your wife smile and stop haggling when she gets some to put around her neck, so infinite value right there vs btc) and is bought in India and China to prepare for catastrophe, but it has many issues (heavy, hard to transport cross border, dangerous and expensive to store, concentrated in vaults against paper gold with all the issues that this creates etc)

Re: AMD signs AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, gives it option to take a 10% stake

#377

Post by baobabKoodaa »

rhetocj23 wrote: post #361
baobabKoodaa wrote: post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like you are talking about AGI or superintelligence or something? Because productive AI tools are already here and have been for a few years. AI has already "worked out". Nothing speculative about that.

Lets assume AI has worked out. Can you point me to the effect on earnings of the customers of said AI tools who have publicly disclosed the affect on earnings because of said tools? Thanks.

You're sarcastic while there are plenty of examples of the exact thing you ask. But sure. Here's one example: https://x.com/levelsio

Re: AMD signs AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, gives it option to take a 10% stake

#378

Post by baobabKoodaa »

Havoc wrote: post #348
baobabKoodaa wrote: post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like you are talking about AGI or superintelligence or something? Because productive AI tools are already here and have been for a few years. AI has already "worked out". Nothing speculative about that.

> AI has already "worked out". Not commercially to an extent that supports the massive infra buildout A couple of neat productivity tricks don’t pay for a 500 billion stargate rollout

> A couple of neat productivity tricks

This level of denialism if insane.

What exactly do you want?

What level of proof would be enough for you to admit that AI has worked out?

Re: AMD signs AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, gives it option to take a 10% stake

#379

Post by mmmBacon »

coliveira wrote: post #371
MonkeyClub wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I took GP's comment to say that, even if LLMs get massively better in the next six months (which they will), the colleagues still have to wade through the slop during the review this week. So while one person is getting a 5x increase in productivity, one or two get a corresponding 5x decrease.

LLMs didn't get massively better in the last 6 months, and most probably won't get this better in the next 6 months either.

I disagree. Couldn’t do what I’m doing with GPT-4 but I can with 5.

Re: AMD signs AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, gives it option to take a 10% stake

#380

Post by mmmBacon »

osn9363739 wrote: post #350
mmmBacon wrote: post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am personally paying $200/month for the ChatGPT pro version. It’s the best investment I’ve made in my career in a long time. It’s like having 2-3 direct reports. The alternatives provided by my companies are too slow and aren’t anywhere as good. If people start using it anywhere near how I’m using it, there will be profound changes to the workplace in the coming 3 years.

I have a senior that talks like this. Does everything through AI now. Barely writes anything himself. Has 5x'd his productivity. Like having his own team. Thing is his work is awful. The people who review his PRs have to spend 5x the time looking at his work. He's been pushed off to another team thank god. Not saying there aren't advantages and uses for AI. but if what you are saying were true (like having 2-3 report…

I run a team. So for me this is like having 2-3 extra people to just do some exploratory work and prototyping. Having actual people to do this is a luxury I don’t have and can’t justify currently.

I can’t just copy-paste what comes out. But I have to say I’m able to get substantially more done as it saves me a lot of grunt work. You do have to learn how to use it like any other tool. I have found that it’s helped me sharpen a lot of my own skills in multiple areas and improved my understanding of systems I’m working on. I am able to learn new things much faster because it has a real-time feedback mechanism.

I can’t speak to your direct report but I’d be concerned about falling behind as a leader if you aren’t using it in the course of your regular work.

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