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U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

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Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#371

Post by dragontamer »

logifail wrote: post #357
dragontamer wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If there's a recent revision of BLS figures showing a correction of PLUS 900k jobs, I'd love to see it. I know right? It's like the new numbers from the BLS are shit or something. Trump fires the last guy, and then a month later they claim that Joe Biden lost 900,000++ jobs. A correction of this size that has never happened before. It's like firing the head of statistics ruins your reputation and intimidates the ot…

Apologies but this isn't unique, nor has it anything specifically to do with the current POTUS. The US jobs figures has had huge revisions downwards before, for instance last year: https://seekingalpha.com/news/4142722-why-was-there-such-a-b... "There's still ongoing chatter about the huge revision to U.S. job growth seen yesterday and what it might signify for the economy and markets. 818,000 jobs were wiped out in…

And this revision this year is even larger.

Are you ignorant to the large scale firings from DOGE and other intimidation tactics of this administration? Or are you just trolling with bad discussion points?

DOGE firings aren't really going to show up in this data. (The cutoff of March2025 is too new) Intimidation of our statistics teams isn't in the data. You aren't even countering the points I'm bringing up.

Everything in context. The problem now is the obvious and direct intimidation applied to our statisticians. Or do you think that Trump actually gives a care about statistical validity?

Your point is that you didn't trust statistics before. Cool. Well guess what? These actions have made it worse. Now NOBODY should be trusting these stats.

Congrats. You won. You destroyed the trust in our statistical system. That was your goal was it not?

I agree with you. The new crop of statistics is suspect. And all our statistics moving forward will continue to be suspect and I'm not sure how to fix the trust problem.

However, I trusted things before. And this new state of things is uniquely a consequence of recent events. You are ignoring all the crap that happened this year that leads me to distrust the new results over the old results and reporting.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#372

Post by kstrauser »

k2enemy wrote: post #129
post_break wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gold, make sure your debts are low, trim expenses now. Start thinking long term, what things will you need 5-10 years from now that will only be much more expensive or hard to get.

If we are heading into a period of high inflation and interest rates, holding debt now is great. High unexpected inflation means that the dollars that you use to pay off the debt are worth less, and you are locked in to a low interest rate.

The ideal circumstance would be to take out a loan you can’t really afford immediately before a round of hyperinflation. Bad time to have $100K in a savings account. Great time to owe that bank $2M.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#373

Post by kstrauser »

post_break wrote: post #124
VoidWarranty wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So uh, I'm the first person in my family to break the cycle of poverty. I have nobody I trust to follow advise with money. I do all the 'standard' boring investment strategies (401, index funds, roth, etc). I don't bother with crypto (scams). What does one do if stagflation is coming? Float more cash? Buy real estate?

Gold, make sure your debts are low, trim expenses now. Start thinking long term, what things will you need 5-10 years from now that will only be much more expensive or hard to get.

Gold, aka Bitcoin for Boomers.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#375

Post by [deleted] »

noitpmeder wrote: post #367
Tadpole9181 wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it's really not. The Executive does not have these powers in the constitution. They made it up and assigned it to themselves by loosely interpreting things how they wanted. Executive orders are memos, not laws. The President has no power for legislation or budget or tariffing. We're supposed to require legislative review of any emergency actions, like using the military.

It doesn't matter what the law says if no one will enforce it. The law is whatever is currently being enforced.

[deleted]

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#376

Post by mulmen »

noitpmeder wrote: post #367
Tadpole9181 wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it's really not. The Executive does not have these powers in the constitution. They made it up and assigned it to themselves by loosely interpreting things how they wanted. Executive orders are memos, not laws. The President has no power for legislation or budget or tariffing. We're supposed to require legislative review of any emergency actions, like using the military.

It doesn't matter what the law says if no one will enforce it. The law is whatever is currently being enforced.

This is what’s so dangerous about the game the Republicans are playing. They are perpetuating a belief that American society is broken by breaking it themselves. If the blinders ever come off their base the violent impulses will be directed at them the same way they were directed at Mike Pence. It’s phenomenally stupid to wind up an ignorant mob and think you can control it. The only way to maintain control is to make the mob angrier and angrier but there’s always a breaking point.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#377

Post by jshen »

noitpmeder wrote: post #369
jshen wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those are bad things. It doesn't mean there aren't other contributors to our economic challenges.

At this point I think the ball is in _your_ court to start suggesting reasonable cofactors.

Debt cycles would be one. https://youtu.be/SoKr0QVCLPA?si=kKcXNetb-kAPr1S8

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#378

Post by mlyle »

deepGem wrote: post #345
mlyle wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a little bit of a philosophical thing here -- do you adjust the earlier measurement by some function because it's usually been high and revised downwards? If you do, you need to let every user know that you're doing something different, etc. The worst case is that both the statistics orgs and the users are adjusting the numbers for a bias and overshooting. This means there's a certain inertia: it can be bette…

This means there's a certain inertia: it can be better to handle the interim reports the same, even if they've been biased one way for several years, than to introduce a change that makes the numbers not comparable to history. This is a very interesting point. So if BLS suddenly became more accurate, all the agencies have to re-tune their own biases and corrections => Could lead to short term discrepancies. What one…

Yup. Obviously you want to fix the bias in the early version of the numbers eventually.

But you don't want to change what you're doing all the time, so you stay an easy product for everyone else to use.

(Interesting that this "overreport jobs in the preliminary numbers" bias has showed up; in older data using similar methodology it didn't exist, but now it seems to...)

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#379

Post by mikestew »

jshen wrote: post #315
_aavaa_ wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For starters we have cancelling and ripping up clean energy projects, introducing serious uncertainty about tarrifs, increasing unease for any immigrant (and even non-white citizens).

Those are bad things. It doesn't mean there aren't other contributors to our economic challenges.

So where’s your list of these “other contributors“? People answered your question, and your response was “wrong, try again.”

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#380

Post by kelipso »

CursedSilicon wrote: post #307
nradov wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not? There is no practical limit to human innovation and productivity growth.

As the saying goes. You can't have infinite growth on a finite planet

As long as you calculate inflation “correctly”, you can have infinite growth lol. It will be fake but you know, line goes up.
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