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Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf

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Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf

#371

Post by infecto »

dboreham wrote: post #367
infecto wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you underestimate the difficulty in getting the tool chain running efficiently in the IDE. It's a significant moat and I suspect their spend is too attractive to cut them off from an API especially when most of the model providers are not exactly competing fully in this space yet or at least not with the same enthusiasm.

Interesting to see multiple posts here saying this. Pretty clearly it isn't true. The IDE is owned by Microsoft. The model is owned by Anthropic or Google or whoever. A business can't be made from a thin sandwich filling between the two.

Hey guys we have a guy here stating pretty clearly it isn’t true. He clearly is the authority on the topic because he said so.

The shell of the IDE is open source. It’s true there is some risk on the supply of models and compute but again none of those, except MSFT which does not even own any of the SOTA models, have any direct competition. OpenAI has codex but it’s half baked and being bundled in ChatGPT. It is in nobodies interest to cut off Cursor as at this point they are a fairly sustained and large customer. The risk exists but feels pretty far fetched until someone is actively competing or Cursor gets bought out by a OpenAI.

Again, what proof do you have that there is zero complexity or most being driven by the sandwich filling. Most of OpenAIs valuation is being driven by the wrapper ChatGPT not API usage. I have written a number of integrations with LLM APIs and while some of it just works, there is a lot of nuance to doing it effectively and efficiently at scale. If it was so simple why would we not see many other active competitors in this space with massive MAUs?

Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf

#372

Post by mark_l_watson »

Keyframe wrote: post #217
nikcub wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> divorced from any kind of fundamentals Anthropic ARR went $1B -> $4B in the first half of this year. They're getting my $200 a month and it's easily the best money I spend. There's definitely something there.

For sure, but then again - Nvidia $4T?! I can't shake the feeling though that with Nvidia we're looking at another Sun type of situation from _the bubble_. Remember the dot in dot com?

NVidia is being propped up by the US government. Huawei’s new chips are lower tech but would probably hit a good ‘practical sweet spot’ for AI data centers in many countries around the world but our current administration is threatening economic violence against any countries who choose to use more cost effective Huawei AI chips.

I don’t want to descend into talking politics, but I want to say that geopolitics, the rising geopolitical ‘south’, etc., is fascinating stuff - much more interesting and entertaining than anything fictional on Netflicks or HBO!

Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf

#373

Post by cweld510 »

brulard wrote: post #112
abletonlive wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"overfunded" is a weird way to talk about a tech company that is incredibly profitable.

It is known there were many developers without really much work to do that were hired only to be denied to competitors. Maybe it was cleaned up in the meantime

Big companies hired a lot, but I don’t think this specifically is true? In theory a high-value engineer would be productive, or else they aren’t worth stealing.

The simpler explanation seems more correct here — there was a lot of product fluff and a lot of headcount allocated to build that fluff.

Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf

#374

Post by virgildotcodes »

cft wrote: post #343
g42gregory wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Claude Code with Pro, Max100, or Max200 subscriptions. Works with any IDE including none. For the time being, nothing comes close, at least for me.

My problem with Claude code versus Cursor is that with Cursor I could "shop around" the same context with different foundational model providers, often finding bugs this way or or getting insights. Sometimes one model would get stuck in their thinking and submitting the same question to a different model would resolve the problem

I’m unaffiliated, but I’ve really been enjoying this - https://github.com/BeehiveInnovations/zen-mcp-server

It allows you to have CC shoot out requests to o3, 2.5 pro and more. I was previously bouncing around between different windows to achieve the same thing. With this I can pretty much live in CC with just an editor open to inspect / manually edit files.

Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf

#375

Post by crowcroft »

pm90 wrote: post #113

I think the amount of turmoil around these deals is giving more weight to the possibility that we’re in a massive bubble thats quite divorced from any kind of fundamentals. Sooner or later the bubbles gonna burst.

Bubble or not these kinds of deals could put a chill on the tech startup sector as well.

Things move fast in tech because there isn't nearly as much red tape and litigation as there are in other mature industries. This is because there's an agreed 'way of doing things'. Take funding, grow like crazy, sell/merge or IPO. Everyone wins or loses together (even if things are stacked in favour for some over others).

Once trust in this process is broken and founders or VCs start stacking the deck in their favour the game becomes rigged to the point where other people don't want to play anymore. Once that trust is gone red tape and litigation appears.

Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf

#376

Post by Lalabadie »

nikcub wrote: post #167
pm90 wrote: post #113

I think the amount of turmoil around these deals is giving more weight to the possibility that we’re in a massive bubble thats quite divorced from any kind of fundamentals. Sooner or later the bubbles gonna burst.

> divorced from any kind of fundamentals Anthropic ARR went $1B -> $4B in the first half of this year. They're getting my $200 a month and it's easily the best money I spend. There's definitely something there.

The bubble isn't the value available to buyers, it's the x00% multiplier created by speculation.

Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf

#377

Post by xyzzy9563 »

macrolime wrote: post #330
xyzzy9563 wrote: post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really, it's pretty hard to get the editor and code editing via AI working as well as they did.

If it's so hard, then why are there multiple open source projects that are just as good?

They're not just as good unless you are willing to spend huge amounts in API credits.

Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf

#378

Post by NewLogic »

cakeface wrote: post #177
meta_ai_x wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The dot-com was a bubble because investors pulled money and belief at the first sign of trouble. The landscape has changed dramatically now. Investors and VCs have learnt if we stick with winners and growth companies, the payoffs are massive. We also have more automatic, retail and foreign money flowing into the market. Buy the dip is a phenomenon that didn't exist at the scale it is now. Pre-2015 if Big Money pulled…

dot-com bubble companies were not good companies. They either built something that was not novel so it could be copied, or had insufficient value to monetize. We'll see the same with current AI. Similar to the invention of the web, AI is not a bubble. Real value has been created.

> not novel so it could be copied

AI Agents can't be copied in a race to the bottom market to resell inference compute?

Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf

#379

Post by komali2 »

I just started trying out Codeium in Nvim on a recommendation from a video that's like, less than 6 months old. Oops, actually, codeium is Windsurf now. But the tool is still codeium.nvim at least.

I guess it's about to happen again!

Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf

#380

Post by NewLogic »

burnte wrote: post #164
pm90 wrote: post #113

I think the amount of turmoil around these deals is giving more weight to the possibility that we’re in a massive bubble thats quite divorced from any kind of fundamentals. Sooner or later the bubbles gonna burst.

I've begun to think some bubbles are good for the economy overall. In the dotcom days anyone with an idea and a domain name could get funding. I myself worked for a company that nabbed 7x more funding than needed but still failed due to poor leadership. I had reservations about the founder but thought I could help drive things, but he was even more absent than I ever anticipated. A lot of VCs and PEs lost a lot of mo…

Good point, it transfers capital from the investor class to the working class.
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