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TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

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Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#371

Might be a silly question but considering the tensions between US and EU right now... What would happen to all these deals if ASML was was not allowed to sell their machines to US companies? I don't know enough to even speculate on these wild scenarios

>What would happen to all these deals if ASML was was not allowed to sell their machines to US companies?

That is not going to happen since ASML depends itself on some US supplied tech.

What should worry EU is US building capability of their own and sabotage ASML.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#372

Might be a silly question but considering the tensions between US and EU right now... What would happen to all these deals if ASML was was not allowed to sell their machines to US companies? I don't know enough to even speculate on these wild scenarios

US has many military bases across EU, after such hostile act they might as well take control over the Netherlands

LOL. Do you think a few thousand soldiers can beat a country's military?

And what makes you think EU countries won't kick out US soldiers until then?

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#373
post #351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they only need to make this appear real for 4, maybe 2 years, and can then reevaluate Taipei needs nukes. There simply isn’t another guarantor of sovereign security anymore.

> Taipei needs nukes This essay explains very lucidly why it's not as straightforward as you think: https://taipology.substack.com/p/no-nukes-are-not-going-to-s...

> As soon as China catches a whiff of the program, it’s an instant invasion

This is correct and why any such project would need to be intensely covert and/or externally facilitated.

> doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) rests on both parties being left in guaranteed ruins

You don’t need MAD. Tehran isn’t aiming for MAD with America, and neither is Pyongyang. The threat of even a tactical retaliation has, to date, been sufficient to keep great powers at bay.

Oung is speaking the language of deterrence and non-proliferation; we are past that, unfortunately [1].

[1] https://mondediplo.com/2022/04/03nuclear

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#374
post #14
post #5

I would be cautious. With a top notch chip factory there is no need to defend Taiwan against China.

Chips are but a tiny reason the US wants to maintain the independence and integrity of Taiwan. (The same can likely sadly be said of their democracy, given the US stance on Ukraine.) Taiwanese independence is primarily about containing China's naval power projection and their ability to keep unimpeded shipping lanes open during times of war. China can currently be easily blockaded, and within a few weeks of such bloc…

"China can currently be easily blockaded"

Back in the day we used to add [citation needed] to statements like that.

Sure, if anyone tried to blockade continental China (coastline from Vietnam to Korea!), controlling Taiwan would be helpful, but chances are it would not really make all that much of a difference. It's not exactly Gibraltar or the Bosporus.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#375
post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Our continued protection of you is contingent on your investment in us”. Taiwan is hugely reliant on US defense guarantees. The US has a protectionist president who likes big numbers in announcements and a base riled up about American production capacity. Long-term this is bad for Taiwan since it reduces its leverage with the US in administrations with short-term geopolitics (or no real geopolitical talent.) In the…

> Taiwan is hugely reliant on US defense guarantees. What I don't get is, in what universe is any US president going to engage militarily against China across the ocean, let alone the current one? The US population does not seem ecstatic to enter something that could turn into WWIII, which makes me feel that even a president in favor of this would quickly fail to do anything.

The US and the EU globalists have outsourced nearly all manufacturing to the east. Waging war on China is basically shooting yourself.

As if you needed more proof, covid hickup disruption of the supply chains were an ample demonstration.

The US gets this, and has now turned towards being less dependant. The EU still doesn't understand, or is willfully blind as an acknowledgement would mean giving up some fantasies they have.

Since the 70's the US' main export has been printed money, 'IP' and war. The first two are worthless if not backed by the threat of the third. Weapons is about the only thing dollars can buy if oil can be traded in other currencies. BRICS is rapidly becoming a contender for a trade platform that they failed to stop.

You can't wage war in the manufacturer you rely on.

This means drastic changes in US policy are needed. This means returning to self sufficiency. This will take time even when you try to speedrun it.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#377
post #347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> After 3 years With the current administration, perhaps 3 days?

Just a reminder that the current administration just removed the "we don't recognize Taiwan as a sovereign nation" from the official state policy.

Their posturing during peacetime does not translate into showing up during wartime.

In fact we have already seen how they cosy up to dictators during wartime. The USA spent decades and decades backing military coups and assassinating democratically elected leaders all over the world under the guise of fighting the Cold War only to suddenly do a U-turn and pander to Putin. Russia has won the Cold War without direct military confrontation with the US.

We have also seen how Trump's first administration betrayed the Afghan government by negotiating directly with the Taliban and locking the Afghan government out of the process. He's doing the same now with regards to the war in Ukraine.

If you know any Taiwanese people, ask them whether the removal of "we don't recognize Taiwan as a sovereign nation" brings them any comfort in light of how the Trump administration is treating Zelensky and America's NATO allies. Ask them what they think of Trump's expansionist rhetoric about annexing Canada, one of America's most steadfast allies with centuries of friendship.

Talk is cheap, and Taiwan as well as America's other Pacific allies are beginning to see through it.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If I were China, I would give them relative economic independence if they... What authority do you think China has over Taiwan?

> what authority do you think China has over Taiwan? Authority, none. Power, plenty.

Taiwan is composed of the refugee losers of the Chinese civil war. That gives them zero legitimacy to continue as anything but a breakaway state occupying a formerly Chinese province.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#379
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if the desire to absorb Taiwan is ideological, they would certainly also understand the severe practical implications of losing access to their chip production.

They already lost access.

Chinese companies seem to not have much trouble getting a hold of advanced chips, despite the embargo. There is also very elastic demand for less advanced chips despite China's efforts towards autonomy.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#380
post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They already lost access.

Exactly. Some comments here seem to imply that it's somehow good (or at least not bad ) for Taiwan's national security to transfer technology to the US because Taiwan can now more credibly threaten to destroy their fabs, completely missing the point that China wants to reunify with Taiwan with or without these fabs. It's a complete misreading of the situation; the US is in fact actively undermining Taiwan's national…

I agree the imposed embargo re advanced chips between Taiwan and China undermines Taiwan's national security but this contradicts the earlier point that China doesn't care at all about chips.
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