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Sorry could you expand / clarify this comment? What would make this more likely to hit near the tropics?
The risk corridor calculated here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2024_YR4_risk_corridor.pn...
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Anything that comes closer than the ISS (give or take) is going to interact with the atmosphere which is going to change the dynamics considerably. Generally something with the right orbit to pass 20m above the earth's surface is going to burn up in the atmosphere or hit the surface. The drag is going to kill its orbit fairly quickly. To have enough energy to come that close without doing so means it has enough energ…
If you come in at exactly the right angle (because you'll skip off the upper atmosphere if you come in too flat) and if you're fast enough, it's entirely possible to enter the atmosphere but fail to complete the aerobreaking maneuver, resulting in an exit from the atmosphere at above escape velocity. The stress of this maneuver is considerable, especially if you get as low as 20m above ground, so the object would nee…