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Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

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Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#371

Post by daveguy »

iandanforth wrote: post #342
jazzyjackson wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This announcement is from the same office as the guy that xeeted: “My NEW Official Trump Meme is HERE! It's time to celebrate everything we stand for: WINNING! Join my very special Trump Community. GET YOUR $TRUMP NOW.” Your calibration is probably fine, stargate is not a means to achieve AGI, it’s a means to start construction on a few million square feet of datacenters thereby “reindustrializing America”

FWIW Altman sees it as a way to deploy AGI. He's increasingly comfortable with the idea they have achieved AGI and are moving toward Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI).

Do you think Sam Altman ever sits in front of a terminal trying to figure out just the right prompt incantation to get an answer that, unless you already know the answer, has to be verified? Serious question. I personally doubt he is using openai products day to day. Seems like all of this is very premature. But, if there are gains to be made from a 7T parameter model, or if there is huge adoption, maybe it will be worth it. I'm sure there will be use for increased compute in general, but that's a lot of capex to recover.

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#372

Post by insane_dreamer »

nerevarthelame wrote: post #274

March 2024: The Stargate project is announced - https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intell... June 2024: Oracle joins in - https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/openai-to-use-oci... January 2025: Softbank provides additional funding, and they for some reason give credit to Trump?

Currying favor by letting Trump take the credit

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#373

Post by Davidzheng »

TheAceOfHearts wrote: post #300

I'm confused and a bit disturbed; honestly having a very difficult time internalizing and processing this information. This announcement is making me wonder if I'm poorly calibrated on the current progress of AI development and the potential path forward. Is the key idea here that current AI development has figured out enough to brute force a path towards AGI? Or I guess the alternative is that they expect to figure…

Let me avoid the use of the word AGI here because the term is a little too loaded for me these days.

1) reasoning capabilities in latest models are rapidly approaching superhuman levels and continue to scale with compute.

2) intelligence at a certain level is easier to achieve algorithmically when the hardware improves. There's also a larger path to intelligence and often simpler mechanisms

3) most current generation reasoning AI models leverage test time compute and RL in training--both of which can make use of more compute readily. For example RL on coding against compilers proofs against verifiers.

All of this points to compute now being basically the only bottleneck to massively superhuman AIs in domains like math and coding--rest no comment (idk what superhuman is in a domain with no objective evals)

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#374

Post by cmdli »

constantcrying wrote: post #91
heydenberk wrote: post #29

~$125B per year would be 2-3% of all domestic investment. It's similar in scale to the GDP of a small middle income country. If the electric grid — particularly the interconnection queue — is already the bottleneck to data center deployment, is something on this scale even close to possible? If it's a rationalized policy framework (big if!), I would guess there's some major permitting reform announcement coming soon.

They say this will include hundreds of thousands of jobs. I have little doubt that dedicated power generation and storage is included in their plans. Also I have no doubt that the timing is deliberate and that this is not happening without government endorsement. If I had to guess the US military also is involved in this and sees this initiative as important for national security.

Is there really any government involvement here? I only see Softbank, Oracle, and OpenAI pledging to invest $500B (over some timescale), but no real support on the government end outside of moral support. This isn't some infrastructure investment package like the IRA, it's just a unilateral promise by a few companies to invest in data centers (which I'm sure they are doing anyway).

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#375

Post by danpalmer »

> building new AI infrastructure for OpenAI in the United States

That's nice, but if I were spending $500bn on datacenters I'd probably try to put a few in places that serve other users. Centralised compute can only get you so far in terms of serving users.

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#376

Post by jonas21 »

shuckles wrote: post #186
modeless wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I generally agree that government sponsorship of this could be bad for competition. But Google in particular doesn't necessarily need outside investment to compete with this. They're vertically integrated in AI datacenters and they don't have to pay Nvidia.

Google definitely needs outside investment to spend $500b on capex.

Over what time frame? They could easily spend that much over the next 5 to 10 years without outside investment (and they probably will).
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