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I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

hindenburgresearch.com

371–380 of 430 posts

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the sell order flow to market makers who gobble up the other side of bad retail trades

Which means that your cost is market maker's spreads instead of fees. Still a cost to you.

Nope, this is one of the counterintuitive things about people paying RH for order flow. Market makers can offer tighter spreads when they know it’s a pool of dumb money.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#372
post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the sell order flow to market makers who gobble up the other side of bad retail trades

I highly doubt market makers are in the business of betting against retail traders. I suspect they're in the business of collecting the spread on lots of small trades that they can assume are largely random.

What you described is how you bet against retail traders. The bet is that they have no edge so it’s safe to run tight spreads and nice pure market making algos that assume random behavior at volume.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trading fees are at or near zero in the US now unless you mean capital gains.

You also pay a spread every time you trade, especially if you're using a retail brokerage like robin hood that sells order flow to market makers. It doesn't show up anywhere in your statement, but it's a real trading fee nonetheless, so it's still better not to trade too much

Retail is offered tighter spreads because it’s safe to assume they have no edge at scale.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#375
post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't say they were ahead at least in terms of reputation. They targeted India's Adani group and failed. The Supermicro "revelation" was also a damp squib. I suppose they made plenty of money with their short-selling though, so in that sense they are, perhaps, ahead enough.

Only failed Adani because they misunderstood how deep the Indian government would go to join in the cover-up, instead of actually investigating it. The Big 4 auditor for Supermicro literally quit, citing concerns. It's the SEC's job to do the investigating (and it's failed badly and likely to fail more with the coming admin).

I wouldn't be surprised if Adani just asked "How much money will you make in your life time?" And just offered the same to close the firm.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#376
post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just yesterday it was announced that Bitfinex will be returned the 95,000 bitcoin that were lost in a 2016 hack. These coins will be returned to the account holders which were affected by the hack. At the time the bitcoins were lost, they were worth ~$575 each. Today those returned tokens are worth close to $100,0000 each. I doubt anyone who was affected by that hack realized they just got involuntarily forced into t…

> These coins will be returned to the account holders which were affected by the hack. I haven't seen any reporting on that. Bitfinex, the corporate entity, is receiving the coins recovered from the feds. It's up to Bitfinex how they device to dole out those funds, if at all. When these things happen, often times exchanges will make their customers whole by giving back the monetary value of the coins at time of loss.…

IANAL but it seems like whoever is running Bitfinex should endeavour to make all the creditors whole in whatever medium their debt was denominated, according to seniority. So if they owe users X BTC and other creditors Y USD, and the BTC debts are senior, they should hand out the BTC to users regardless of its dollar value and, if there is any left, auction it off for the benefit of the (junior, in this scenario) USD creditors.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#378
post #59

I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments because I was naively confident in the market's ability (or as I've come to suspect, willingness) to react to evidence of fraud. The amount of deceit put out into the world and gobbled up, on purpose, in business is obscene and seriously depressing. The magnitude of damage to psyches and thus economies that anyone acting in a fraud…

> The amount of deceit put out into the world and gobbled up, on purpose, in business is obscene and seriously depressing. In business, politics, everything. It almost seems like everyone is quietly agreeing that "if we pretend the pesky truth doesn't exist for long enough, we can literally change reality to be what we want". I feel like I'm going crazy. There's no way that's how things can work for long, right?

It's not about pretending. Truth is the first casualty of war. If someone is trying to deceive you, they are actively exposing you to some kind of risk, usually for their own benefit, which is a hostile act.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#379

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The amount of deceit put out into the world and gobbled up, on purpose, in business is obscene and seriously depressing. In business, politics, everything. It almost seems like everyone is quietly agreeing that "if we pretend the pesky truth doesn't exist for long enough, we can literally change reality to be what we want". I feel like I'm going crazy. There's no way that's how things can work for long, right?

By all accounts it was like this at the end in the USSR too: infinite nepotism, no accountability, crashing standard of living near the median, deaths of despair attached to crazy levels of dangerous substance use. This is what happens when bad people capture the levers of power. https://youtu.be/IUJMyTJ9gyI

I didn't watch this talk but I read the article it's based on.

When an Iraq War supporting Tory like Niall Ferguson criticizes the US military for being both bloated and stretched thin by underfunding, it gives away that the critique is just disingenuous contrarianism.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#380
post #278

They published about Carvana 13 days ago and now are disbanding... https://hindenburgresearch.com/carvana/

Carvana stock didn’t seem to react much at all to that Jan 2 report (higher today than on Jan 1, even)? I wonder if, and possibly how much, Hindenburg lost on that trade.

It seemed to very positively react to the shutdown though
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