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A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

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371–380 of 497 posts

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#371
post #22
post #16

How did Waymo do this? As far as I know, replacing drivers with an AI was the goal of ever-money-losing Uber and Lyft, however, Waymo managed to get to this much sooner while having less funds.

I've also not seen much drama coming out of Waymo in the past. I could be wrong but I guess this is the benefit of keeping your head down and focussing on the problem instead of growing too large.

I think they did something very smart, but I don't know if it was accidental or intentional.

Waymo existed for like a decade on the basis of "we have a pile of money and our founders think it's cool". They moved slow and broke nothing. They made slow, incremental progress exploring the self driving space for years with plenty of funding and no expectation of a product launch.

So when a bunch of other companies came along, years and years later, and were all "we're going to have self driving cars next year!!!", and Waymo had their "oh shit, we better actually make this into a product or why do we even exist " moment, they were already in a really good place. They weren't rushed, they probably could have pivoted to a product a year or three earlier. They'd already solved the problems everyone else was just handwaving.

If it was accidental, they sure got lucky in the amount of time they were given with relatively little pressure, and in the timing of that competitive pressure at the end.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#372

Still worse than public transport, wastes more resources and endangers cyclists and pedestrians. I have yet to see anything that deserves to be called progress in self-driving. Yet another scam to sell more wasteful, inefficient vehicles.

> Still worse than public transport

I agree that the US needs better public transportation, but most of the US is not a city.

If the nearest grocery store is 30 miles away and the nearest bus stop is several miles away from your home, then using public transportation turns this into a half-day affair.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The GP was talking about the driver knowing if the "human has seen the machine". For the inverse problem, we could simply start adding screens (instead of windshields?) to self-driving cars that acknowledge the pedestrians in a particular way (when there's only a few people, in the Black Mirror realm, they'd actually greet them by name using facial recognition and universal DB of everyone :).

What? I was absolutely talking about human cyclists and pedestrians needing to know that the machine sees the human, and not by blind faith, but through some active explicit demonstrable indication.

I believe my reply was to user LoLFactor (threads open up subthreads which open up more subthreads...).

If you are disagreeing with my use of "GP" (grandparent post), always go with the HN rule of "assume the best possible interpretation" :)

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#374

Did the paper really prove its claim? It set aside more than half of Waymo's claims history and compared only the most recent portion of its own history to the all drivers benchmark. All drivers do things that Waymo doesn't like operate outside specific city centers, drive in snow or other severe weather, real people drive more during the day in traffic but Waymo is biased toward nighttime (less traffic), and real pe…

It seems like you want them to explore a different question. Im confident that the best human drivers are better than Waymo. They are also better than all human drivers, by definition.

If you are worried about other drivers hitting you, the "all driver" comparison seems relevant. If you want to know if Waymo is a safer driver than you are, that will depend on where you are on the spectrum.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#375
post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ambulance drivers might be a step too far unless autonomous systems are expected to drive ambulances at high speed and run red lights. But my point is that they really do need to be a lot better than the median driver given their real world operational expectations, and especially significantly better than the mean driver they're being benchmarked against here, who probably loses their license for the bodily injuries…

Well Uber drivers don’t have any special qualifications. That’s kinda the point of Uber. Is there any reason to expect them to be safer than the average driver?

Not being super nervous about being behind the wheel, not showing off their speed to their friends and probably being sober is a starting point

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#376
post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is not whether the machine can see the human, or even whether the machine knows that the human has seen the machine. The problem is that the human currently has no way to know whether the machine has seen the human.

Of course there is, the behavior of the machine should be the same as of a driver - the car shaped object starts to slow down in a way that will make it stop before hitting me at the pedestrian crossing.

This one scenario is an entirely insufficient list of all possible situations that occur.

Some of the worst incidents are when a stopped car stars moving just for the most obvious example.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#377
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's impressive and all, but my reaction to self driving cars are completely different. It's a great technical feat, but it's not ever going to be efficient as public transportation. The form factor of the car works against it.

You're conflating two tangential things, automatic driving is automatic driving whether it's a car or a bus. The biggest issue that automatic driving needs to overcome is that it's sharing the road with manually driven cars. We've already had the technology for a long time to have perfect automatic driving if the environment was fully automatic; computers are unparalleled at accurately sharing and processing data wit…

>driving a car has been one of the most empowering paradigm shifts for the commons. Being able to travel yourself timely anywhere anytime for any reason

Everywhere that the roads go, sure.

The more other commoners are trying to do this, and the more useful places that the roads will allow it, the slower it gets. But not only that, it's very unevenly paced - and therefore inefficient and less safe.

The problems are compounded by North American road and intersection design. Many urban areas in Europe manage to get by with far fewer streetlights and stop signs (often by using roundabouts). But cars in North American cities routinely get to speeds that would be dangerous in a collision (which would be much less of a problem if this could be confined to routes where they're isolated from pedestrians - but this often doesn't happen), only to have to stop and wait for a minute or more at a time, an embarrassingly short distance thereafter. And then buses have to deal with the car traffic and the lights, make additional stops, and take extra safety precautions due to their size.

Everyone thinks of taking the bus as slow. If there were no cars, the roads could be designed for buses, and streets for pedestrians. But we don't even properly distinguish streets from roads around here.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#378
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's impressive and all, but my reaction to self driving cars are completely different. It's a great technical feat, but it's not ever going to be efficient as public transportation. The form factor of the car works against it.

Once the technology exists and is proven, the only thing stopping public transportation from being automated with the same technology is their union.

Subways and light rail already have such automation in many places. For example in Montreal: https://rem.info/en/light-rail

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#379
post #3

So one day my car insurance company will tell me: "you have to pay us more because you are driving yourself".

> one day my car insurance company will tell me: "you have to pay us more because you are driving yourself" As it should. You’re objectively higher risk, particularly if you’ve ever been at fault for a crash or gotten a ticket.

"More" is the critical word here. I don't see any reason why insurance premiums should increase. Insurance premiums aren't sin taxes or some governmental incentive, they are offered by private firms.

I would expect premium levels to continue to be driven by liability pool payouts plus a profit margin. Autonomous vehicles don't increase driver risk or liability pool payouts. IF anything, they reduce them due to safer driving conditions for the humans.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Insurance for human drivers stays the same. If anything, it goes down, because the more Waymo-level autonomous vehicles on the road, the safer it is overall. Insurance isn't a zero sum game, where "less insurance spent on autonomous vehicles" means the insurance companies have to make up for it somewhere else. In a way, "car driving getting safer overall" isn't great for car insurers, because they make money financin…

Insurance is, however, a for profit corporation, out to maximize profits, so they'll charge both groups a premium, and then add a service fee on top of that.

And when they post the obscene margins as a result of doing this, other insures can come in and undercut them. That's a key ingredient to making insurance work well. Its also why "insurance" doesn't work for healthcare.
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