Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nice of her to think these advanced autocomplete models have any intelligence at all
I know right?! Now, all you have to prove is that humans are anything more sophisticated than that :)
Descartes did it 400 years ago
OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B
371–380 of 443 posts
Re: OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B
#372Earlier quoted context omitted.
GPT is a generic tool name. Those moats are pretty weak. People use Apple Idioticnaming or MS Copilot or Google whatever, which transparently use some interchangeable model in the background. Compared to chatgpt these might not be as smart, but have much easier access to OS level context. In other words: Good luck defending this moat against OS manufacturers with dominant market shares.
>Those moats are pretty weak. Name any other AI company with better brand awareness and that argument could make a little bit of sense. Armchair analysts have been saying that since ChatGPT came out. "Anyone could steal the market, anytime" and there's a trillion USD at play, yet no one has, why? Because that's a delusion.
> Name any other ~~AI~~ company with better brand awareness and that argument could make a little bit of sense.
I just gave you three of them. Right now a large share of chatgpt customers come from the integration provided by those three.
> "Anyone could steal the market, anytime" and there's a trillion USD at play, yet no one has, why? Because that's a delusion.
Bullshit. It is not about "stealing" but about carving a significant niche. And that has happened: Apple In happens in large parts on device using not-chatgpt, google's circle to search, summaries etc use not-chatgpt, copilot uses not-chatgpt.
The danger to a moat is erosion not invasion.
Re: OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B
#373Re: OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B
#374Earlier quoted context omitted.
What is intelligence and how does one measure that?
What is measurement? What is a definition?
Well the original claim is super intelligence is going to be achieved by OpenAI. So I assume you have defined it and figured out a way to measure in the first place so that you know it has been achieved.
So probably on you to explain it since you came up with that claim.
Re: OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B
#375Really good financial engineering which had convinced the value. Cheers.
Re: OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B
#376There's no chance in the world they are worth even a tenth of it. Like literally some of their best talent tomorrow starts their own company and all they need is data center credits to catch up with open ai itself. What is the company's moat exactly? Being few months at best ahead of the curve (and only on specific benchmarks)?
I've been following them for years, and every year everyone says they're not worth it. It started with "AI progress is fake." "AI will never beat human creativity." "AI can't code anything past 15k tokens." "AI will always be too expensive." "AI will never sound like a human." "AI can't even understand humor." And now we're at "AI is only like this because they're stealing copyright." "If everyone uses AI, it will ca…
Yet you're ignoring that competitors, have done a terrific job at catching up in extremely small time frames.
Hell, even Nvidia 2 weeks ago released their own LLM model which is competitive with the best commercial ones.
AI is a commodity, eventually where money will be made (interacting with the software and user, from Excel to your OS like Apple Intelligence) it won't be much relevant which model you use, average Joe won't even notice.
Re: OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B
#377Earlier quoted context omitted.
The hardware required is the same, just in different amounts. It’s less (gross) expensive for inference, since it takes less time, but the cost of that time (per second) is the same as training.
Obviously, that's my point. We can do the math. GPT-4o can emit about 70 tokens a second. API pricing is $10/million for output tokens and $2.5/million for input tokens. Assuming a workload where inputs tokens are 10:1 with output tokens, and that I can generate continuous load (constantly generating tokens). I'll end up paying $210/day in API fees, or $76,650 in a year. Let's assume the hardware required to service…
70 somethings per second, is slow. So that means it does take a very significant amount of resources, considering it's running on the same or better hardware. To sustain 70 things per second for thousands of users, it gets expensive really quickly.
Re: OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B
#378so they are now close to where every float in the original gpt3 model, is worth 1$.
Re: OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B
#379Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've been following them for years, and every year everyone says they're not worth it. It started with "AI progress is fake." "AI will never beat human creativity." "AI can't code anything past 15k tokens." "AI will always be too expensive." "AI will never sound like a human." "AI can't even understand humor." And now we're at "AI is only like this because they're stealing copyright." "If everyone uses AI, it will ca…
Yet you're ignoring that competitors, have done a terrific job at catching up in extremely small time frames. Hell, even Nvidia 2 weeks ago released their own LLM model which is competitive with the best commercial ones. AI is a commodity, eventually where money will be made (interacting with the software and user, from Excel to your OS like Apple Intelligence) it won't be much relevant which model you use, average J…
I don't consider models a commodity though. Coffee and steel are commodities. You need some level of quality and materials, but they can be swapped out. Models are more like engines or CPUs.
Unbenchmarked things like their ability to use south Jakartan slang, writing jokes, how and when they reject input, how tightly they adhere to system input, how they'd rate a thing from 1-10. They function as a part of a complex system and can't be swapped out. I'm using Claude Sonnet 3.0 for a production app and I need a week to be able to swap it to 3.5 while maintaining the same quality. We've trained our own models and it's still incredibly hard to compete with $0.075 per million tokens just on things like cost of talent, hardware, electricity. And that speed.
The question is why not something like Anthropic?
I'd say OpenAI has other cards up their sleeve. The hardware thing Jony Ive is working on. Sam Altman invests into fusion power and Stripe; guess who's getting a discount? There is a moat, but it lies at a higher level. Other competitors are also playing other kinds of moats like small offline AI.
Re: OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B
#380$6.6B raise. The company loses $5B per year. So all this money literally gives them just an extra ~year and change of runway. I know the AI hype is sky high at the moment (hence the crazy valuation), but if they don't make the numbers make sense soon then I don't see things ending well for OpenAI. Another interesting part: > Under the terms of the new investment round, OpenAI has two years to transform into a for-pro…
Check out this more in-depth financial analysis: https://www.wheresyoured.at/oai-business/
> OpenAI's monthly revenue hit $300 million in August, and the company expects to make $3.7 billion in revenue this year (the company will, as mentioned, lose $5 billion anyway), yet the company says that it expects to make $11.6 billion in 2025 and $100 billion by 2029
> For OpenAI to hit $11.6 billion of revenue by the end of 2025, it will have to more than triple its revenue. At the current cost of revenue, it will cost OpenAI more than $27 billion to hit that revenue target. Even if it somehow halves its costs, OpenAI will still lose $2 billion.