"Trains have solved the problems FSD is struggling with. They deal with junctions with automated signposts, and have a well established architecture of also avoiding train-to-train-crashes."
Your example just demonstrates my point. Waymo is not comparable because their "solution" is a dead end while FSD basically just works when being demonstrated in Europe and Asia even though it likely has like 0.1% or less of kilometers of having been driven there when comparing to US.
>it will crash
Just not true. Even ignoring that FSD can often go way longer without an intervention, remember, the "interventions" are extremely subjective and are just done when the driver becomes uncomfortable for reason or another. Many times likely the intervention just makes the car less safe in the situation, and the driver does it simply because they just had a different idea of how to fit a gap and were surprised by the car's plan. But the intervention logic is there to case for a ton of angles including legal and bug reporting / "feeling" safe instead of just purely _being_ safe.
>And NNs are inherently very noisy, so they are not a promising approach for a safety critical system
We're just replacing an NN with another one that is better. Replacing our transit system with something more mechanical akin to automatic train signaling systems (and getting rid of roads and cars!) isn't really in the books so blaming NN's is a moot point. Talking about LIDAR verifies that you don't actually have understanding of the history of FSD-like systems. LIDAR is easier for a beginner dev operation to start with but won't scale and is a fools errand given we already have the bloody reference of the previous control system working purely with vision!
FSD is the long term future and without comparison. Elon having been over optimistic about the timeline doesn't make it any less world-changing.