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Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

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Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#371

Post by robertlagrant »

layer8 wrote: post #250
robertlagrant wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is not an argument for crypto, it's an argument for better regulations so that processors don't make up their own rules. Better (which I assume is your euphemism for "more") regulation isn't neceesarily the answer, or even particularly the answer. Do you want to force payment processors to do work they don't want to do? Isn't there a word for that?

> Do you want to force payment processors to do work they don't want to do? Isn't there a word for that? Public utility. That’s what payment processors are at this point, and they should be regulated as such.

If we think there's no more innovation to be had then this could happen, but I'm not sure that's the case.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#372

Post by skybrian »

SilverBirch wrote: post #126

Does anyone else see the "In X years time we'll have something Y times better than the competition has today" as a bit of a red flag? I saw this before in a product plan and it flagged up 2 things that really worried me. Firstly, the competition were already ahead of us, and they're obviously going to continue developing their stuff, so it's great to promise our thing will be better than their thing today but we're n…

Yes, predicting the future is difficult. Nobody knows who will really be ahead in X years. Nobody knows how much OpenAI will improve either. But they have ambitions to improve a lot and their plans are credible enough to satisfy their investors.

Not sure what else you’re expecting? All VC investments have unquantifiable risks, but it doesn’t add up to a red flag if you like their chances.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#373

Post by robertlagrant »

mschild wrote: post #265
psychlops wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Authoritarian solutions are very attractive today.

Reasonably regulating payment processors is far from authoritarian. If you are on a scale like Visa and MasterCard you're not just any private company anymore. Just those 2 companies control well over 75% of the US market alone. Not having access to a debit/credit card today will effectively block you from taking part in many aspects of modern life. It's absolutely reasonable to place stipulations on what they can an…

In what sense do they control the market?

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#374

Post by nr2x »

mike_hearn wrote: post #346
horsawlarway wrote: post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but it's hard to see situations where the local approach beats out the cloud approach. I think the most glaring situation where this is true is simply one of trust and privacy. Cloud solutions involve trusting 3rd parties with data. Sometimes that fine, sometimes it's really not. Personally - LLMs start to feel more like they're sitting in the confidant/peer space in many ways. I behave differently when I know I'm…

People have trusted search engines with their most intimate questions for nearly 30 years and there has been what ... one? ... leak of query data during this time, and that was from AOL back when people didn't realize that you could sometimes de-anonymize anonymized datasets. It hasn't happened since. LLMs will require more than privacy to move locally. Latency, flexibility and cost seem more likely drivers.

Two issues though: leak of data from one party to another, and misuse of data by the party you gave it to. Most big companies don’t leak this type of data, but they sure as hell misuse it and have the fines to prove it.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#375

Post by Karrot_Kream »

horsawlarway wrote: post #354
mike_hearn wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People have trusted search engines with their most intimate questions for nearly 30 years and there has been what ... one? ... leak of query data during this time, and that was from AOL back when people didn't realize that you could sometimes de-anonymize anonymized datasets. It hasn't happened since. LLMs will require more than privacy to move locally. Latency, flexibility and cost seem more likely drivers.

You're still focused on trusting that my data is safe. And while I think that matters - I don't really think that's the trust I care most about. I care more about the trust I have to place in the response from the model. Hell - since you mentioned search... Just look at the backlash right now happening to google. They've sold out search (a while back, really) and people hate it. Ads used to be clearly delimited from…

> Hell - since you mentioned search... Just look at the backlash right now happening to google. They've sold out search (a while back, really) and people hate it. Ads used to be clearly delimited from search results, and the top results used to be organic instead of paid promos. At some point, that stopped being true.

Only people in HN-like communities care about this stuff. Most people find the SEO spam in their results more annoying.

> At least with google search I could still tell that it was showing me ads. You won't have any fucking clue that OpenAI has entered into a partnering agreement with "company [whatever]" and has retrained the model that users on plans x/y/z interact with to make it more likely to push them towards their new partner [whatever]'s products when prompted with certain relevant contexts.

You won't know this for any local models either.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#376

Post by nr2x »

dpflan wrote: post #110
rebolek wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There may have been a disagreement, but now they're focused on profit, as everybody else. From the same article: “Anthropic has been heavily focused on research for the first year and a half of its existence, but we have been convinced of the necessity of commercialization, which we fully committed to in September [2022],” the pitch deck reads. “We’ve developed a strategy for go-to-market and initial product speciali…

This is hilarious to me, in that the disgruntled departure just did a 180… how long until the next disgruntled spin-out for higher reasons chases the dollar too…

Also, to chase those dollars while being on the leash of Google’s massive investment.

So they lost the plot on the altruistic mission within months of setting up shop, and now are just a pawn in a bigger game between other companies.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#377

Post by anentropic »

mike_hearn wrote: post #313
anentropic wrote: post #288

If Apple would wake up to what's happening with llama.cpp etc then I don't see such a market in paying for remote access to big models via API, though it's currently the only game in town. Currently a Macbook has a Neural Engine that is sitting idle 99% of the time and only suitable for running limited models (poorly documented, opaque rules about what ops can be accelerated, a black box compiler [1] and an apparent…

If I were Apple I'd be thinking about the following issues with that strategy: 1. That RAM isn't empty, it's being used by apps and the OS. Fill up 64GB of RAM with an LLM and there's nothing left for anything else. 2. 64GB probably isn't enough for competitive LLMs anyway. 3. Inferencing is extremely energy intensive, but the MacBook / Apple Silicon brand is partly about long battery life. 4. Weights are expensive t…

4. Weights are expensive to produce and valuable IP, but hard to protect on the client unless you do a lot of work with encrypted memory.

No, it'll be a commodity

Apple wouldn't care if the weights can be extracted if you have to have a Macbook to get the sweet, futuristic, LLM-enhanced OS experience

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#378

Post by spaceman_2020 »

pradn wrote: post #318
spaceman_2020 wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Currently using GPT-4 to do a lot of heavy lifting for me for new app. Would love to see your approach!

See this: https://www.reddit.com/r/ChatGPT/comments/12gjp5b/ultimate_g...

This is incredible, thanks for sharing!

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#379

Post by nr2x »

jjtheblunt wrote: post #337
dpflan wrote: post #44

"Dario Amodei, the former VP of research at OpenAI, launched Anthropic in 2021 as a public benefit corporation, taking with him a number of OpenAI employees, including OpenAI’s former policy lead Jack Clark. Amodei split from OpenAI after a disagreement over the company’s direction, namely the startup’s increasingly commercial focus." So Anthropic is the Google-supported equivalent of OpenAI? Isn't the founder going…

Curiously, Anthropic.com was launched in 2021, but a small custom software shop in Arizona around since the mid-late 90s had registered and been using Anthropic.ai in 2020 for a couple projects. How does that name collision work?

“Hi we’re here to save humanity, and we’re stealing your name! We have a ton of lawyers, buckets of cash from Google to hire more lawyers, and if you don’t like it, you’re fucked. Now please enjoy being saved by us.”

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#380

Post by nr2x »

lhl wrote: post #273
freediver wrote: post #252

claude-instant-v1 is one of the "best kept secrets". It is comperable in quality to gpt-3.5-turno, while being four times faster (!) and at half the price (!). We just released a minimal python library PyLLMs [1] to simplify using various LLMs (openai, anthropic, AI21..) and as a part of that we designed a LLM benchmark. All open source. [1] https://github.com/kagisearch/pyllms/tree/main#benchmarks

From my evals on nat.dev I found claude instant to give great responses and yes, avg 3-4X faster than 3.5, but one big difference atm is that anyone can sign up and get access to gpt-3.5-turbo right now , but claude is still gated behind an invite/wait list. (I'm still waiting for access for example.)

Exactly!

OpenAI are the only people who are shipping product like absolute maniacs. If I can’t use your fancy system, it doesn’t exist as far as I’m concerned. There’s a mountain of theoretical work, I don’t need a press release on top of it.

The game now is no longer theory, it’s shipping code. A 4-year plan means fuck all when OpenAI is not only ahead, but still running way faster.

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