Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Also tbh a lot of people are just really bad at judging companies and wind up working at startups that are obviously going to fail. You really do have to make an honest assessment of if you are good at picking winners. It's luck, not good judgement. No-one knows how to accurately assess whether an early-stage startup is going to succeed or fail. If it was possible, accelerators would have better-than-background rat…
You don't need to join an early-stage startup – as a mid-to-senior engineer, even if you only join places that are series-B or later you can still get equity packages that ultimately end up netting to >1MM/year with the kind of valuation growth that the successful companies in that profile see. I think luck is a big part of it absolutely, I just don't think it's the only piece. But I also know that IME some engineers…
Regardless, being able to identify "company success" is something that's always been taught as luck/lottery so I'd love to improve my ability here.