We're going to need a lot of solar panels • Hacker News Board

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#371

Post by laurencerowe » Sat, Jul 23, 2022, 6:48 AM UTC

bryanlarsen wrote: post #307

laurencerowe wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rooftop solar is now far more expensive than utility scale solar. As a renter who subsidies this through my electricity bills I don’t understand why I should be subsidising more artisanal scale generation for homeowners at 3x the price of utility scale solar.

Transmission costs exceed production costs in many jurisdictions. Rooftop solar can often eliminate the need for very costly distribution upgrades.

Certainly not in California where the transmission cost savings from rooftop solar are less than 1% per kWh vs the 200% increase in costs vs utility scale solar. https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2022-03-28/solar-rooft...

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#372

Post by zapataband1 » Sat, Jul 23, 2022, 6:49 AM UTC

WalterBright wrote: post #188

Aeolun wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that we would have better results right now? Think of the shareholders! All that lost value could have gone to line their pockets, but instead it’s being used for the good of society (to be fair, probably to those same shareholders through different companies at exorbitant rates).

> All that lost value could have gone to line their pockets, but instead it’s being used for the good of society That is indeed the pitch the communists make. How is that working out for them?

You mean like china who has 10,000 high speed rails running every day producing the cheapest PV cells and lifted their population out of poverty? Let's just let Elon Musk get richer at the 3 trillion dollar mark he might let us have ONE tunnel.

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

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Post by Helmut10001 » Sat, Jul 23, 2022, 6:50 AM UTC

choeger wrote: post #367

Helmut10001 wrote: post #320

People both underestimate and overestimate what PV can do. In summer and around noon, here in western Europe, there is so much PV-electricity produced that it is _almost_ enough to fulfill all demands. In winter, the amount is like a drop in the desert. I have built a 30 kWp PV at home 2 years ago - you would think this is quite big, for a private plant. It is not enough. If I want to power a heat pump (with drilled…

I think with 30kWp you should be able to heat enough sand to make it over the winter. It's a matter of space and finding someone to build you that heat storage.

Currently, it is cheaper though to "sell" the electricity in summer and "buy" it back in winter (even if it is at 10x the price I sold it for). Compared to private long term storage solutions. Most long term electricity storage solutions will yield electricity at prices above 80c/kWh here (even lithium ion is currently around 50 to 70c, if you calculate 10,000 hrs average lifetime of house batteries). And you cannot use lithium ion for long term storage, you would need H2, or heat storage solutions.

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#374

Post by vineyardmike » Sat, Jul 23, 2022, 6:50 AM UTC

pfdietz wrote: post #315

Retric wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Land is just an example, running new HV power lines from ultra cheap land to consumers is another cost that’s not dropping. If hypothetically ~10% of costs are fixed the maximum theoretical cost reduction is 90%. Which the quoted 10% annual cost reductions in solar hit in 22 years. But more realistically the closer you approach theoretical maximum the more difficult it is to improve at the existing rate.

Or, you know, we move industry out to be closer to the PV fields. Globally, energy intensive industry probably moves to places like Chile with very high insolation. Too bad, Europe.

> out to be closer to the PV fields

All those crazy people moving to AZ and NV in the US did something right. Their energy costs to AirCon is going to need it.

But actually this seems like it would position well certain parts of the US that are growing (sun belt).

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

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Post by neonsunset » Sat, Jul 23, 2022, 6:51 AM UTC

Or just a few nuclear power plants…

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

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Post by illiac786 » Sat, Jul 23, 2022, 6:55 AM UTC

KingOfCoders wrote: post #356

dmitriid wrote: post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> With all due respect, looking at your numbers my hunch is that you need better insulation. With all due respect these are the kinds of "tiny" details that renewable enthusiasts conveniently forget. Yes, this person's house needs better insulation. As does everybody else's . You can't just wave this away with "your math is wrong". These numbers reflect reality, not wishful thinking.

Not sure how "better insulation" is something "renewable enthusiasts conveniently forget". We need better insulation either way.

I think what this person meant is the renewable enthusiasts treat insulation as something easily done whereas it will take 100 years to insulate the majority of houses in Europe in my view…

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#377

Post by mikewarot » Sat, Jul 23, 2022, 6:56 AM UTC

It seems to me we need a lot of nuclear power. In the US, we need to close the fuel cycle, reprocessing all the existing spent fuel, and building a new class of reactors that can handle the resulting fuel mix.

With this base energy supply in hand, our options are far more flexible for extracting carbon from the air, and either making fuels, or petrochemical feed stock from it.

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

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Post by Emma_Goldman » Sat, Jul 23, 2022, 6:58 AM UTC

ben_w wrote: post #81

walrus01 wrote: post #4

We're going to need a lot of solar panels and an efficient way to transport power from a very sunny place to another location where the loads are. For instance: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_DC_Intertie The pacific DC intertie right now often ends up being used to transport power from hydroelectric dams in WA/OR to California. But there's nothing to say that something couldn't function the other way if there…

A global grid was my favourite solution until recently. The problem is that it needs the combined cables to have cross section in the order of a few (3?) square meters (at 640 kV), and that in turn is in the order of 52 years of global copper production (we make more aluminium than copper but Al is a worse conductor). Using even higher voltages makes everything much easier, and the cables’ combined cross sections may…

A lovely idea, but it will not happen anytime soon because states consider energy independence to be of existential geopolitical importance.

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#379

Post by Gibbon1 » Sat, Jul 23, 2022, 7:04 AM UTC

laurencerowe wrote: post #371

bryanlarsen wrote: post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Transmission costs exceed production costs in many jurisdictions. Rooftop solar can often eliminate the need for very costly distribution upgrades.

Certainly not in California where the transmission cost savings from rooftop solar are less than 1% per kWh vs the 200% increase in costs vs utility scale solar. https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2022-03-28/solar-rooft...

That underlies my thought on roof top solar. Big picture we can build out twice as much utility scale solar for the same expenditure of resources. If homeowners are going to spend $$ on something replacing gas furnaces with heat pumps would be better.

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#380

Post by coryrc » Sat, Jul 23, 2022, 7:08 AM UTC

walrus01 wrote: post #284

m463 wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I always liked perusing https://sunelec.com because they have interesting per-pallet or per-container pricing plentiful wattage would be an interesting DIY project.

I also use sunelec as a general small quantity pricing benchmark, but for the west coast, their prices can be matched from several distributors that ship from California warehouses.

Do you have some recommendations?