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Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

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Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#371

Post by jimmydorry »

bsaul wrote: post #370
01100011 wrote: post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I fully believe Elon and Jim Keller truly thought the deep learning HW delivered by Tesla was capable of self-driving in the early 201x time frame because, frankly, a lot of us did. More than likely, like the rest of us, they slowly came to see that the problem was much more difficult, and deep learning much less capable, than we had originally envisioned. Most of us didn't make a bunch of stupid promises to sharehol…

ML approach for FSD was critized right from the start by mobileeye CEO who gave a very thorough talk on why that couldn't possibly work. I think the talk is still on youtube. The guy was critized for being old school and not having adapted to the latest tech (including by elon musk when he dumped mobileeye), but in fact he was just plain right. i think the tech community owes him an apology.

Until any FSD solution delivers, it's far too early to vindicate the mobileye CEO. As it stands, even with additional (expensive) sensors, it seems very likely that ML will be required regardless. Running purely off sensors is not going to be feasible when braking distances alone are greater than the sensors will be able to accurately measure.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#372

Post by SergeAx »

TheAlchemist wrote: post #4

Well, Musk said recently that the value of Tesla is 0 without FSD. Does anybody seriously think Karpathy would step down if FSD was really close to be released ?? It really starts to feel like Tesla is a huge fraud which is about to be uncovered.

Karpathy would step down if his vesting schedule is over and he failed to negotiate another stock option. TSLA is public, it's value was inflated at least an order of magnitude last year, so any rational person would cache hugely on that.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#373

Post by [deleted] »

function_seven wrote: post #57
dreamcompiler wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because self-driving has a bunch of tricky edge cases and most of them will kill people. Problems with hundreds of important edge cases cannot be solved by simply throwing more training data at the problem; that's how you solve AI problems in a "dumb" manner, and it works for lots of problems (like recognizing dogs in images) -- but not for self-driving. To solve the self-driving problem we need "smart" A.I., which m…

I remain convinced that "real" self driving (as in: go ahead and sleep in the backseat) will never happen without changes to road infrastructure and possibly some sort of segregation between robot-driven cars and people-driven cars. Things like traffic signals that actively communicate their status to nearby robot cars (more than just a red lamp that can be occluded by weather, other vehicles, or mud on the camera le…

[deleted]

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#374

Post by sebzim4500 »

shaklee3 wrote: post #321
01100011 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't Tesla supposed to be producing Optimus, their human-like android, next year? Elon has been over-promising(i.e. flat out lying) about self-driving every year since.. 2014(there's a youtube video compilation of it)? It seems like his strategy is to just come up with increasingly grandiose promises every year when he fails to deliver on his past promises. He's trapped in his swirling vortex of bullshit. Very worry…

he's been doing it on starlink too, but he gets a pass on HN for that one.

Isn't starlink pretty good though? I'm in a city, but I know people in rural areas that rave about it.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#375

Post by sebzim4500 »

mstipetic wrote: post #338
sdenton4 wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or it'll be like the time machine in Primer, where you can't go back before the time machine was turned on.

That kinda only works if we’re the only civilization in the universe, right? What if some other civilization discovered it a long time ago?

Then they might have been using it this whole time. If they kept to themselves we would have no idea.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#376

Post by cjrp »

ncmncm wrote: post #313
elif wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FSD beta tester here. I think they are minimum 3 years away from anything exciting beta.. but the localization, mapping, and visualization are not the reason. I don't think LIDAR would contribute substantially to improvement. The fundamental flaws are in the decision-making being based upon 10-30 second feature memory, ignoring features outright, and only depending on visible road features instead of persisted map da…

The elephant in the room is fraud. Tesla has been collecting thousands of dollars, each, from car buyers and utterly failing to deliver what it represented, and keeping the money year after year. Would be let GM, Toyota, or Audi do this? Where is the criminal prosecution? Where are the refunds?

Could they rely on something in the smallprint? "You're paying for access to features as they become available, no guarantee that they will" etc.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#377

Post by SilverBirch »

simonswords82 wrote: post #69
WatchDog wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Employee: I quit. Employer: Are you sure? Why don’t you take some time off and think about it?

Totally this. If you’ve got somebody who is critical to the success of the business you do anything you can to keep them

It also buys them time to figure out if you really were critical and see who steps up to replace you. If at the end of the sabbatical you really were irreplaceable, they can fight a lot harder to keep you.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#378

Post by elcomet »

dreamcompiler wrote: post #335
elcomet wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not a counterexample. Your 16-year old human has millions of years of evolution into its brain. That's a lot of pre-training data.

Are you suggesting that orange cones and semi-trailers cutting you off were common on the African savannah?

I'm suggesting all of this is just finetuning a very generic and powerful object recognition and tracking ability of the brain

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#379

Post by agoose77 »

osuairt wrote: post #363
codechicago277 wrote: post #3

Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…

Yes, the vision only approach isn't something that you do in robotics. There is usually a hierarchy of sensors, mainly for redundancy. Example: Bumper sensory at the wheel base, sonar / Lidar at the mid, and a camera at the top for advanced sensing. For the sake of cost cutting Tesla has done away with their radar sensors at the front of the vehicle. It would be a substantial cost overhead, but have very real repercu…

IIRC there was a presentation from Karpathy talking about the challenges with sensor fusion, particular in resolving divergence between e.g. the vision and the radar stack: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSDTZQdo6H8&t=1949s

My background is in physics, but I find myself having a growing appreciate for the vision-only stack. It's really challenging building a formal understanding of the world that is robust to outliers that are so numerous as navigating in an urban environment. With vision, you have multiple kinds of information that are highly correlated (colour, spatial distribution, depth, etc) that are self-consistent. Whereas, fusing radar with vision, where object responses to radar are highly geometry & material dependent, is a much harder task.

I'm really not an expert, so this reads more as an opinion than an experienced view, but I can see the merits in doubling down on vision.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#380

Post by throwaway81523 »

RC_ITR wrote: post #365
throwaway81523 wrote: post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> With some infrastructure improvements we could have "virtual" trains. Vehicles would talk to each other on the highway I think the idea is to get rid of the roads and have the robo vehicles travel instead on tracks. That increases fuel efficiency and bypasses a lot of AI challenges.

Not only that. Overhead electrical solves a lot of the mining/environmental impact of batteries. It’s the low-key case that Elon will be remembered poorly (like Robert Moses’ rapidly degrading legacy) for 1) Having the wrong vision for EVs (but successfully executing non it anyway) 2) Making space travel cheap (thereby increasing the amount of carbon energy dedicated to it) without really improving an average human’s…

Plus messing up astronomy and maybe helping bring about Kessler syndrome. Good point about overhead electrical.
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