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Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

economist.com

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Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#371

Post by maigret »

shimmy568 wrote: post #161
rapfaria wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about life becoming more efficient?

There is a limit, growth can't continue forever (especially the exponential growth we've been seeing). We've got to level off at some point

Why not? Do you think the society will soon stop inventing new things? They are clear indicators that evolved societies are disconnecting their growth from the energy usage, and especially carbon emissions. With that new heights are possible.

But besides this, yes, slow growth back like for most of humanity is also an option and probably not a bad one in the longer term. It’s a very bad option until we are depending on fossil fuels, because we need the money for the transition.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#372

Post by andy_ppp »

Great time to build a startup then, as by the time you have product market fit you'll either be living in a bunker eating canned food or things will have come around.

http://www.paulgraham.com/badeconomy.html

I'm actually moving to Mallorca to bootstrap a startup for two months and quitting my job, only time will tell if I'm right!

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#373

Post by bdcravens »

photochemsyn wrote: post #349
bdcravens wrote: post #335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think Uber qualifies as "tech they clearly don't understand". Uber is certainly a company with issues, but it's a clear problem they are solving, adding automation to an industry that's very old.

Uber only still exists because the Saudis dumped $5 billion into them.

Sure. I'm not arguing that it's a good business, but it's a simple business, no matter what tech they have backing them. Today's bubble is marked by a lot of Defi/Web 3.0 silliness.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#374

Post by formerkrogemp »

ripe wrote: post #171
Robotbeat wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The money can find a productive outlet, it’s just that for the last 5 years or so, speculative investments (that weren’t productive) had a much higher rate of return. Which is too bad as the productive investments like building a solar power plant really benefitted from the low interest rates that drove the non-productive speculative bubble. non-productive Speculative investments tend to get punished at the end of th…

> non-productive Speculative investments tend to get punished at the end of the cycle by losing all value, thus punishing those invested in it and restoring order. To be precise, the investors who are left holding at the end of the cycle get punished. The early investors who got out make out like robbers. This system incentivizes pump-and-dump.

We don't need solar, wind, nuclear, hydro, water reclamation, on shore chip foundries, manufacturing, battery chargers, non-crumbling bridges, manufacturing, paved raids, public transit, or working airports. We need more crud apps and adtech! More stock options and stock buybacks!

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#375

Post by pclmulqdq »

r3trohack3r wrote: post #318
kurthr wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is "the market" working for you! We could allocate resources to productive assets by fiscal spending, but that is prevented by politics. Only when "the market" gets its cut can any infrastructure be built in the US. That's also true for much of the medical establishment and pension/retirement systems. If the market was efficient, we wouldn't be complaining about it. Unfortunately, a "free market" and an efficien…

> We could allocate resources When you buy/sell crypto - money changes hands. That money wasn't really "allocated" to crypto, beyond miner fees, just redistributed. That cash still exists. The resources being allocated are graphics cards, human time, and electricity AFAICT. The power usage of crypto is relatively small compared to other active human endeavors. It's power usage doesn't approach other arbitrary value s…

IIRC, the energy use for crypto as a whole is on par with the energy use of the fiat currency system, if not higher. I don't know how gold mining ranks, but it may be well below crypto mining in energy use or well above. Mining energy use depends a lot on asset price, and gold prices are comparatively low (compared to other asset classes).

Silicon and other electronic parts also get dumped into this market, when the capacity used to build those devices could be used for other things.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#376

Post by [deleted] »

avgDev wrote: post #2

I work for non-tech generating 100million+ in revenue. Cushy job, fully remote, good pay and full autonomy with flexible hours working as an IC. I recently talked to a startup, similar pay, culture would be a better fit since it was mostly techies and I'm a nerd by nature.....but things just got awkward as soon as I asked about their revenue....they were bleeding money and I was told they were being acquired by a big…

[deleted]

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#377

Post by maigret »

olivermarks wrote: post #26

The problem I have with the Economist these days - they've changed a lot recently as has the Financial Times - is that they are one of the big cheerleaders for creating bubbles out of tech they clearly don't understand. This starves the startups that have compelling and reachable business models and goals because the funding goes to (quite possibly financially scammy) moonshots with vague goals somewhere over the hor…

The Economist was of the few publications to investigate “what if” before Brexit while almost all others dismissed that scenario. They might not be perfect but they try and they investigate.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#378

Post by kgwgk »

dilyevsky wrote: post #48
versale wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Intel’s P/E is 7 right now. So, the other ratios do look inflated.

Blue chips and intel in particular always had low p/e

For some values of “always”. In 1972 Coca-Cola traded at 48 times earnings.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#379

Post by naravara »

Robotbeat wrote: post #124
gonzo41 wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is also a central banking fail in so far that there's that much liquidity in the market that can't find a productive outlet. There's a lot of money, but also not enough concentrated in one spot to do really useful ventures like large infrastructure projects. So instead the money is distorting everything. Imagine if lending was less cheap for home owners but it was still cheap for governments or really large comp…

The money can find a productive outlet, it’s just that for the last 5 years or so, speculative investments (that weren’t productive) had a much higher rate of return. Which is too bad as the productive investments like building a solar power plant really benefitted from the low interest rates that drove the non-productive speculative bubble. non-productive Speculative investments tend to get punished at the end of th…

Also, arguably the most socially productive outlets would have been public goods, like major infrastructure investments and public education and health initiatives. But that's evidently politically untenable.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#380

Post by maigret »

shrimpx wrote: post #361
the_doctah wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any time I ask on some financial forum about moving a chunk of investments to cash I get told that would be stupid, don't try to time the market, and just keep buying. I would have saved myself a bunch of losses if I had done it when I was thinking about it.

“Don’t time the market” is stupid advice. The problem with that advice is that virtually every action you may or may not take is a form of timing the market. People going all in “now as opposed to later” are timing the market. Dollar cost averaging is timing the market. Staying in the market instead of selling is timing the market. People encouraging you to stay in the market because if you sell, that’s “timing the m…

> Dollar cost averaging is timing the market.

No this is the exact opposite. It’s like passive vs active https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/markettiming.asp

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