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Coinbase stock lost over 75% value

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Re: Coinbase stock lost over 75% value

#371

Post by jshen »

scarface74 wrote: post #348
jshen wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“ In 2-3 years we will be recovering.” I’m not sure exactly what he meant, I read it as “we will be near the bottom in 2-3 years”. Recovering means something different than recovered.

So now if we compare it to the dot com bust. It will be 20 years before the recovery….

I believe it was ~13 years before the nasdaq reached the same level as the peak of the dot com bubble. I also find it odd to use the peak as the primary reference point. It was a brief moment in time. For example, if you had invested in the nasdaq in Feb 99 or Nov 2001, instead of Nov 99, it recovered in 7 years. If you started in Aug 98 it recovered in ~5 years. There was rough a window of a year where it would have been really bad to invest, but that is why everyone recommends dollar-cost-averaging (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dollarcostaveraging.asp) instead of investing a ton all at once.

Re: Coinbase stock lost over 75% value

#372

Post by nostrademons »

chii wrote: post #245
daenz wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think people bought into the idea because they were selling shovels in a gold rush.

and when the gold rush is over, the shovel seller also goes out of business. Therefore, the shovel seller ought to sell their business _before_ the gold rush is over! Or find another use for shovels - unfortunately, i don't think there's much use for shovels outside of shovelling gold.

Tell that to Levi's, Wells Fargo, American Express, Armour Meatpacking, Studebaker motors, Ghirardelli chocolates, and Mark Twain, all of which got their start in the California gold rush.

Re: Coinbase stock lost over 75% value

#373

Post by hardwaresofton »

mikeg8 wrote: post #354
hardwaresofton wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So I'm actually in on PTON right now and feeling some pain, but what made it click for me was that the bike was completely unusable without a subscription. At this point, returns and people just burning/destroying their Pelotons are the only risk. In addition two things made me think about it: - The kind of people who buy pelotons are usually not the people who worry about that amount of monthly charge and may keep i…

> - The kind of people who buy pelotons are usually not the people who worry about that amount of monthly charge and may keep it aspirationally I think this is a very limited market that may be getting close to saturation. Most people don’t want to spend $40 a month to own a bike

Yeah I don't disagree with you there (I don't own one)

A bit more of my very basic reasoning was that at current prices the company was being as if it hadn't shown progress at all in the last ~2 years. They have at least sold units, added subscribers, and that's gotta be worth something even if a bunch of it is pulled forward.

Actually for a SaaS service (we'll leave aside whether it's worth it or not :), this is one of the best things that could happen right? If possible you want that LTV to be pulled forward so you can try to reinvest it in the business or make moves earlier rather than later?

Re: Coinbase stock lost over 75% value

#374

Post by jshen »

nradov wrote: post #360
jshen wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Again, they aren’t a good company today if they can’t weather a down turn. They may have been a good company in the past, but they aren’t currently if they can’t make it.

That definition of "good company" is close to being just a tautology. It isn't useful to investors or business managers. Are there any consistent patterns which allow us to reliably predict which good companies will contine being good longer term?

What's your definition of a good company? If people could reliably predict which companies are and will remain good then they will be very rich. Most of us can only know in hindsight for the most part. This is why virtually no one picking individual stocks beat the S&P 500 index over the long run.

Re: Coinbase stock lost over 75% value

#375

Post by nostrademons »

squeaky-clean wrote: post #83
TuringNYC wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Catchy phrase, but what is actually wrong with dollar cost averaging through a downturn? It seems to be the only effective way to invest for the long term.

(Disclaimer that I own some NET so I don't necessarily believe this is the case for them but also am probably biased). You can't really know it's a downturn until it ends and pops back up. Otherwise it's just their downfall. If a stock is going to just drop and continue dropping until bankruptcy, or plateau forever at a low point, then cutting your losses early would be better. But no one can really be sure which way…

Best way to mitigate that risk is to have some inside information that they're not going bankrupt.

And the best legal way to do that is to be a customer or prospective customer and observe that there are no other ways to accomplish what you want to.

There're a number of beaten-down tech companies that IMHO would pass that test: NET and COIN are two of them, ZOOM, probably SHOP as well (the small businesses I know on them swear by them). I'd stay away from Affirm, Peloton, Netflix and Roblox, though - those are the ones where, as a customer, I just don't get much value out of them and could easily go elsewhere.

Re: Coinbase stock lost over 75% value

#376

Post by granshaw »

claytonjy wrote: post #362
nostrademons wrote: post #359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or a public company that took it in the chin over the last 4 months. With public companies you get the market price at the first board meeting after hiring, and you don't take quite as much risk of your stock being totally worthless as you would with a down round or unknown company.

is it still called a "strike price" when dealing with RSUs? I agree with you but I took parent to imply startups & options

Generally not but I think parent probably was referring to RSUs but could’ve worded it better

Re: Coinbase stock lost over 75% value

#377

Post by nostrademons »

cercatrova wrote: post #254

It is interesting that Bitcoin is only down 50% in the same time, that means Coinbase is not strictly correlated with BTC then. So, there must be another reason why Coinbase is down, which would be interesting to figure out.

Interest rates.

Value of BTC is what people will pay for it now. Value of COIN is the discounted value of all future cash flows, which is heavily correlated with what people will pay for BTC in the future. COIN is doubly-levered on interest rates: its future earnings are tied to BTC, which itself tends to drop when the stop market does, but those earnings are also discounted by the prevailing interest rate. When rates go up earning lots of money from high BTC prices in the future doesn't mean a whole lot.

Re: Coinbase stock lost over 75% value

#378

Post by acchow »

eftychis wrote: post #155
outside1234 wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The crypto market won't all evaporate because it is a very useful tool for money laundry, illegal transactions, and bribes. But this is hopefully a much smaller market than the current one.

I mean cash is better for strictly better for illegal activities. That misconception has stuck and just stays there. One leaves way to many crumps with non-private digital assets. And private ones are treated like the plague. Plus KYC and compliance checks for any exchange in the USA and EU (dunno about the rest of the world) practically bans anything iffy. Compliance requirements have been stricter in Coinbase from…

How does one order drugs in the dark web using cash?

Re: Coinbase stock lost over 75% value

#379

Post by tradertef »

ncmncm wrote: post #265
pingeroo wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure why you're getting downvoted. I wasn't even alive during the dotcom bubble but every account I've heard of it sounds similar to the cryptosphere. Insane valuations. People blindly jumping on the bandwagon. Money blindly being thrown around left, right, and centre towards anything 'web3'. Plagued with tremendous amounts of arrogance, greed, and hubris. People buying Lamborghinis and the like. Classic gold rus…

Difference is that the internet was and is a real thing with real value. There were a zillion dotcoms thrown up onto it that offered no such value. Crypto coins and NFTs are like the latter.

Generalizations are not generally valid. You are putting whole ecosystem into the same bucket. Yes, there are a lot of shitcoins.. But there is also Bitcoin.

Re: Coinbase stock lost over 75% value

#380

Post by londons_explore »

tshaddox wrote: post #311
kortilla wrote: post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Opposing view. Cloudflare doesn’t own anything significant in the form of data centers. Having small rented footprints at IXPs across the globe is not an asset, it’s just a cost. I’m not downplaying the difficulty of getting it setup but there is no intrinsic value in having it if demand for their product collapses. > Developer sentiment towards Cloudflare is comparable to Apple fanboys of the previous decade This is…

Why do you call it “protection money”? Surely Cloudflare doesn’t directly or indirectly cause DDoS attacks for people who don’t pay them.

Well it is certainly good for cloudflares business if a DDoS attacks become more common....
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